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Domo Arigato, Mr. Kluboto.
11 Games- 1:05 PM ET
Must Play SP: Corey Kluber, CLE ($22,900) @ DET
Is the Klubot broken? In his last two outings, Kluber’s been knocked around like we haven’t seen happen since last October. His lack of success has not been due to a velocity issue, but rather a location issue. On the left below is Kluber’s zone map from March-June. On the right is his zone map over the last two starts. (Both images courtesy of Fangraphs.com)
He hasn’t been catching the lower half of the zone as well as he was earlier this season, as is seen by the 4.2% of pitches in the bottom left hand corner way out of the zone. I’m more confident Kluber can make the adjustments necessary against an ailing Tigers offense than I am in any of the next six pitchers having a stellar outing given their matchups.
Honorable Mention: Ross Stripling ($16,100)
Value SP: Jeremy Hellickson, WAS ($13,100) @ MIA
Hellickson’s had a pretty volatile July, throwing two very good games against the Mets and Pirates right before the All-Star break, and tossing a meh one against Milwaukee his last time out. Oh yeah, and his start against Miami to start the month was brutal. With how the Marlins have performed this past week (64 wRC+), I’m confident rolling with Hellickson, especially since FIP/xFIP suggests he was a bit unlucky in July.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Borucki ($11,100)
IF: Rougned Odor, TEX ($8,300) @ HOU (Lance McCullers Jr.)
Odor has been lethal at the plate the last week. He’s only struck out three times, which is surprising for someone of his reputation as a free swinger, and has gone eight for twenty, five of those being extra base hits. On the base paths he’s also been very aggressive, attempting three steals in the five games he’s played (only successful on one). He’s probably priced around here because of the Houston matchup, but he went 5-for-5 in the game against Verlander yesterday, so a matchup against McCullers should not deter you from playing Odor.
Honorable Mention: Rhys Hoskins ($10,500)
OF: J.D. Martinez, BOS ($8,900) vs. MIN (Jose Berrios)
The likelihood of me recommending Martinez in a weekend is probably close to 100%, but it’s really hard to consciously choose other players over the MLB home run leader that’s also one of four batters with a season OPS over 1.000. The price tag today is lower than I would have expected, most likely due to the Berrios matchup, but Martinez is carrying a .481 wOBA over the past week, and a .474 wOBA in the series against Minnesota thus far.
Honorable Mention: Charlie Blackmon ($10,500), Whit Merrifield ($9,000)
Value Hitter: Neil Walker, NYY ($7,400) vs. KC (Burch Smith)
When I first read Walker’s price I thought it said $4,700 and my eyes almost shot out of my head. Even at $7,400, Walker is a good deal considering how he’s been playing (.588/.571/.647 over the last week). This typically happens about twice a year with Neil, and it’s usually more power driven, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he homered in today’s game.
Honorable Mention: Jackie Bradley Jr. ($6,800)
Stack: Oakland A’s @ Colorado Rockies (German Marquez)
Khrush is a bit expensive compared to the rest of the A’s, but he’s also hit four home runs in six games. Matt Chapman and Johnathan Lucroy sandwich Davis on the team’s OPS leader board for this week’s games, and both come at a nice discount ($8,900 for Chapman, $6,300 for Lucroy). By wRC+, the A’s are the third best team in baseball right now, and playing at Coors Field is an added bonus.
Honorable Mention: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros