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We’ve got two slates tonight on FantasyDraft – the 7pm start covers 13 games, while the 8pm covers the five later matchups.
Must Play SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($23,800) vs SD
There are three aces on the mound tonight in Severino, Kluber, and deGrom. deGrom is the cheapest of the three and my favorite of the bunch. He’s got an absurd 1.68 ERA with a 2.23 FIP and a 30.7% K-rate. If his elite numbers alone aren’t enough, he’s also facing the worst lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching in the Padres, who have a .287 wOBA with a 25.9% K-rate. Both marks are the worst in the league. It feels like too easy of a call rolling with deGrom.
Honorable Mention: Luis Severino, NYY ($25,600) at TB
Value SP: Sean Newcomb, ATL ($16,100) at MIA
Newcomb has had a really rough stretch lately, but it’s been against some very tough matchups – he should have a rebound start against the feeble Marlins. Miami has just a .286 wOBA versus lefties, the second-worst mark in baseball, and Newcomb gets to face them in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Newcomb has rolled through easy lineups like the Orioles and Padres since June, so he’s still clearly a viable option against teams like the Marlins.
Honorable Mention: Ross Stripling, LAD ($19,900) at PHI
IF Matt Adams, WAS ($8,200) at MIL (RHP Jhoulys Chacin)
After starting both games for the Nationals since Ryan Zimmerman’s return from the disabled list, it seems clear that Matt Adams is the starting first baseman for the Nats against right-handed pitching. He completely deserves it, as Adams has an insane 158 wRC+ against righties this year. Opposing starter Jhoulys Chacin probably isn’t as good as his ERA would suggest, as he’s got just an 18.1% K-rate and is rocking a 4.76 Deserved Run Average. Adams should be able to tee off on him in Miller Park, one of the best offensive environments in the league.
Honorable Mention: IF/OF Kris Bryant, CHC ($8,100) vs ARI (Corbin)
OF Justin Upton, LAA ($8,000) vs CWS (RHP Lucas Giolito)
It’s tough to find a better spot for RBIs than batting fourth behind Mike Trout in the Angels lineup, and that’s where Upton gets to hit against Lucas Giolito. Giolito is one of the worst starters in the majors with a 6.14 FIP, so the Angels should score plenty of runs, and Upton will definitely be involved. Upton hasn’t missed a beat against righties, posting a .365 wOBA, so it’s surprising that he’s not priced as more of an elite bat.
Honorable Mention: OF Marcell Ozuna, STL ($7,600) at CIN (Castillo)
Value: IF Yoan Moncada, CWS ($7,200) at LAA (RHP Jaime Barria)
I still like Moncada quite a bit in GPP contests, as the 23-year-old still has tons of upside and can put together a big night with his power/speed combo. He will get lots of plate appearances as the White Sox leadoff hitter against a weak pitcher in Barria, who has a 4.84 FIP. Moncada’s got a solid .812 OPS in the last month and comes at a very low price tonight.
Honorable Mention: IF Jose Abreu, CWS ($6,800) at LAA (Barria)
Top Stack: Twins at Blue Jays (RHP Luis Santos)
The Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game tonight, which is always a great opportunity to stack, as Twins hitters will get to see some of the worst pitchers on the Toronto roster. Their “starter,” Luis Santos, has a 7.88 ERA, for instance. Toronto is also a great hitter’s park, so elite hitters like Eddie Rosario ($9,800) and Brian Dozier ($9,300) are even more valuable. Cheaper options include Joe Mauer ($8,200) and Jorge Polanco ($7,600).
Honorable Mention: Nationals at Brewers (Chacin)