Pitcher List is excited to be partnering with FantasyDraft, featuring advice articles every morning through the entirety of the 2018 season. Signup and play for free at FantasyDraft.
Don’t Covey thy Dylan. Rather, covet the great stack against him for two different slates tonight.
Early Slate (1:05 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Marcus Stroman, TOR ($16,300) vs. BAL
With only three games in this early slate today, the must start pitcher is essentially a process of elimination. Sonny Gray is pitching at home, where he has an 8.25 ERA this season. Steven Matz is facing the Yankees, who are the best hitting team against LHP. Tyler Chatwood regularly has command issues, and the Cardinals offense has scored 24 runs in the last two games. Alex Cobb gets roasted on the road more often than he does at home (odd, considering Camden Yards is his home park). Of the two remaining for the must play, one pitcher is facing a team where the leader in OBP is .311, and the other is John Gant.
Honorable Mention: John Gant ($10,900)
IF: Gary Sanchez, NYY ($8,500) vs. NYM (Steven Matz)
Gary was disappointing in last night’s game, and is only one returned from his DL stint. However, his 155 wRC+ against LHP this year shows that regardless of Gary’s struggles at the plate, he has not struggled to clobber lefties like he has throughout his career.
Honorable Mentions: Kris Bryant ($8,500), Matt Carpenter ($9,000)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($9,600) vs. NYM
In one third of the at bats, Stanton has hit three fewer homers against lefties than he has against righties this year. His OPS against them is an eye popping 1.188 this season, about .140 higher than his career mark (that’s still an OPS over 1.000 for his career). In a day with limited options, you have to play the guaranteed hits, and there’s no better today than Giancarlo.
Honorable Mention: Michael Conforto ($7,400)
Value Hitter: Amed Rosario, NYM ($6,400) @ NYY (Sonny Gray)
Rosario had a weak performance in last night’s game, going 0-4 with two strikeouts and two groundouts, but before the break he was making really solid contact because of a minor adjustment he made to his swing. That adjustment was helping him get more lift on the ball if he makes solid contact, and with Gray on the mound, the likelihood of that is very likely.
Honorable Mention: Dexter Fowler ($6,500)
Stack: New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
The Yankees accumulated 14 hits and drew five walks in last night’s 7-5 loss to the Mets, and worked the few strong bullpen arms the Mets have into deep pitch counts. As the best team in baseball against LHP, you can see why they have six players priced above $8,000 for this afternoon’s contest. Of those six, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Hicks provide the most upside given their spots in the order and particularly strong performance against lefties this year.
Honorable Mention: New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Late Slate A (7:15 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($23,300) @ MIL
Kershaw was starting to shake off some of the rust from his DL stint right before the All-Star break, tossing three straight quality starts. The Brewers find themselves in the company of the Marlins, Orioles, and the Mets at the bottom of the wRC+ leaderboard agaisnt LHP, so maybe this is a start where we finally see a vintage Kershaw earned run and strikeout mix.
Honorable Mention: Madison Bumgarner ($21,200)
Value SP: Luke Weaver, STL ($14,500) @ CHC
In the two starts he made right before the All-Star break, Weaver struck out seven batters in each appearance and posted an ERA of 1.93 in 14 inning of work. He was optioned to AAA right before the break to keep himself in a rhythm, and struck out seven in four innings of work on Monday. The Cubs haven’t struggled to score in the previous two games, but the team may be worn down a bit for the second game of a double header, which bodes well for Weaver to keep rolling.
Honorable Mention: Lance Lynn ($14,000)
IF: Jose Ramirez, CLE ($11,000) @ TEX (Bartolo Colon)
Ramirez has done most of his damage this season when hitting as a lefty. You could say that’s due to a larger sample size allowing for better counting stats, but his HR/PA is nearly double when facing RHP as opposed to LHP. Last night’s game was a pretty standard JoRam performace: .333 batting average with 2 extra base hits. It feels boring to pick a guy this dominant at the plate, but Ramirez himself is far from boring.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Belt ($7,700)
OF: Charlie Blackmon, COL ($9,900) @ ARI (Zack Godley)
It’s a very small sample size, but in his career against Godley, Blackmon has a 1.316 OPS. In the larger sample size of the week leading up to the All-Star break and yesterday’s game, Blackmon has an OPS of 1.202. Of his 19 home runs on the season, Blackmon has hit 13 away from Coors Field, so his power is just as bankable away form the most hitter friendly park in baseball.
Honorable Mention: George Springer ($8,200)
Value Hitter: Jose Abreu, CWS ($6,700) @ SEA (Felix Hernandez)
Getting cheap power is an easy way to bolster your DFS lineup, and Abreu coming in under $7,000 provides that for you. He has struggled against right handed pitching this year, posting an OPS barely over .700, but Abreu has been rather unlucky against them this year. By xStats, his OPS is .075 lower than his xOPS, so he’s probably due for some positive regression.
Honorable Mentions: Andrew McCutchen ($63,00), Justin Upton ($6,300)
Stack: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox (Dylan Covey)
While I certainly don’t Covey thy Dylan, I can’t say the same for teams opposing him when he’s on the mound. He’s given up at least four earned runs with a WHIP of 2.25 in his last five starts, so I’m very comfortable trotting out Dee Gordon, Nelson Cruz, and Mitch Haniger for $8,200 or less. If you’re trying to find upside on the cheap, Ryon Healy and Kyle Seager are both under $7,000.
Honorable Mention: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Late Slate B (8:15 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Madison Bumgarner, SF ($21,200) @ OAK
Forgive me for citing a statistic this specific, but when facing LHP at home this year, the A’s have a 77 wRC+ in a sample of 526 plate appearances. If you take a step back and look more macro at the A’s at home, regardless of pitcher handedness, you’ll see they have the third worst wRC+ at home in baseball. This is more a testament to how pitcher friendly O.co is because of its wide foul territory than it is to the A’s being a bad offense. MadBum has converted five of his last six starts into QS, and he should have no problem adding another one in tonight’s game.
Honorable Mention: Carlos Carrasco ($19,600)
IF: Jose Ramirez, CLE ($11,000) @ TEX (Bartolo Colon)
Ramirez has done most of his damage this season when hitting as a lefty. You could say that’s due to a larger sample size allowing for better counting stats, but his HR/PA is nearly double when facing RHP as opposed to LHP. Last night’s game was a pretty standard JoRam performace: .333 batting average with 2 extra base hits. It feels boring to pick a guy this dominant at the plate, but Ramirez himself is far from boring.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Belt ($7,700)
OF: Charlie Blackmon, COL ($9,900) @ ARI (Zack Godley)
It’s a very small sample size, but in his career against Godley, Blackmon has a 1.316 OPS. In the larger sample size of the week leading up to the All-Star break and yesterday’s game, Blackmon has an OPS of 1.202. Of his 19 home runs on the season, Blackmon has hit 13 away from Coors Field, so his power is just as bankable away form the most hitter friendly park in baseball.
Honorable Mention: Mitch Haniger ($8,100)
Value Hitter: Jose Abreu, CWS ($6,700) @ SEA (Felix Hernandez)
Getting cheap power is an easy way to bolster your DFS lineup, and Abreu coming in under $7,000 provides that for you. He has struggled against right handed pitching this year, posting an OPS barely over .700, but Abreu has been rather unlucky against them this year. By xStats, his OPS is .075 lower than his xOPS, so he’s probably due for some positive regression.
Honorable Mentions: Andrew McCutchen ($6,300), Willie Calhoun $5,800)
Stack: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox (Dylan Covey)
While I certainly don’t Covey thy Dylan, I can’t say the same for teams opposing him when he’s on the mound. He’s given up at least four earned runs with a WHIP of 2.25 in his last five starts, so I’m very comfortable trotting out Dee Gordon, Nelson Cruz, and Mitch Haniger for $8,200 or less. If you’re trying to find upside on the cheap, Ryon Healy and Kyle Seager are both under $7,000.
Honorable Mention: Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers