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It’s a bit expensive to fully indulge in Nola Day, but you can still enjoy it without killing your DFS budget.
Must Play SP: Jack Flaherty, STL ($16,400) @ PIT
Aaron Nola is squaring off against the third worst offense over the past week in Miami, so he’s the safest starting pitcher of the day. However, with a $5,000 price gap between him and the second most expensive pitcher, you’d be betting he has far and away the best performance if selected. Milwaukee and Cincinnati have both been 5-10% above league average this week, so I’m hesitant starting Jon Gray and Tanner Roark even though both have pitched very well recently (I prefer Gray over Roark because he’s tossed a QS in four of his last five, while Roark is only two for five). Both Pittsburgh and San Diego have been struggling, so in deciding between Flaherty and Lester I’m gonna go with the K upside.
Honorable Mention: Jon Lester ($15,900)
Value SP: Wade Miley, MIL ($12,700) vs. COL
The crop really thins out once you get past Castillo and Bieber. I recommended starting Urena against the Phillies yesterday because they were a bit quiet offensively, and it came around to bite me in the butt as Urena allowed 6 earned runs through five innings. I’d be more on board with starting Strailey if not for that, but Miley’s in a better position than both of those Marlins pitchers were/are. The Rockies have a 66 wRC+ since Monday, and Miley has allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last four starts.
Honorable Mention: Dan Strailey ($11,900)
IF: Rougned Odor, TEX ($10,400) vs. BAL (Yefry Ramirez)
It may seem lazy to recommend Odor for the second straight day, but tell me why I wouldn’t when he goes two-for-three with a homer, single and a walk. He’s hit four homers in his last five games, and he’s still made zero soft contact in a week’s time. Ramirez also has a really hitter favorable profile, but it’s only 33 innings of work, so it’s not totally stable. Regardless, when looking at his ROS projections from zIPS, Steamer, etc, he looks like he’ll be at best a mid 4’s ERA pitcher. That’s something Odor shouldn’t have trouble mashing.
Honorable Mention: Jose Abreu ($9,400)
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr., ($9,300) @ NYM (Corey Oswalt)
Acuna has been a bit of an all-or-nothing player this week, as he’s compiled six strikeouts and eight hits with one walk this week. Furthering the all-or-nothing case, Acuna has had four extra base hits and four singles (okay, it’s a bit of a stretch to call a single “nothing”, but in the sense of XBH or no XBH it works?). Oswalt pitched a few solid games for the Mets in, but as a fan I’m not buying into results as much as I may looking at stats alone. Either way, Acuna has done the most of his damage against the Mets this season, compiling an OPS of .985 in 26 at-bats, and he should continue to do so this afternoon. *sigh*
Honorable Mention: Christian Yelich ($1o,300)
Value Hitter: Jorge Alfaro, PHI ($6,700) vs. MIA (Dan Strailey)
Unlike most players in this price tier, Alfaro has been very close to a league average hitter since Monday. Alfaro got a breather yesterday too, so there should be virtually zero chance he’s not in the starting lineup for Philly this afternoon. In a small sample size, Alfaro has made medium or hard contact on 87.5% of his batted balls, and 75% have been fly balls, so he could be in line for a few hits today if luck falls his way.
Honorable Mentions: Austin Jackson ($6,300)
Stack: Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals (Tanner Roark)
Flipping the side I prefer in this matchup today, and hopefully it works out as well as it did last night. Joey Votto is modestly priced at $8,200, and he may have one of those vengeance games because he was not happy about getting hit twice in yesterday’s game. I don’t know if Eugenio Suarez will ever cool off, as his wRC+ is over 200 for the last week and he’s barely over $9,000. Other Reds hot bats like Phillip Ervin and Mason Williams are available on the cheap too. I don’t buy Roark’s success lasting, but FIP and xFIP support his last two outings, so I understand if you want to shy away from this suggestion.
Honorable Mention: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres