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10 Games- 7:05 PM ET
Must Play SP: Trevor Bauer, CLE ($24,100) @ CWS
The White Sox have ten more ___ than any other team since Monday. Any guesses as to what the blank is? If you know they’ve been batting .167 this week, then you also know it’s not something you want to have that large of a lead in over a small sample size. That blank is strikeouts; fifty-four strikeouts over four games (disclaimer: one of those went 13 innings against the Yankees). Even if you think that total number is skewed because of the extra innings, if you look at K%, you’ll see they’re ten percentage points worse than the team striking out the second most often. When you pair that with Bauer’s sixth best K% amongst qualified starters, it looks all but guaranteed that he’ll be the top performing pitcher in this slate.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola ($18,600)
Value SP: Corey Oswalt, NYM ($10,900) @ MIA
There’s nothing too exciting about Oswalt’s profile to date, but he’s had a string of four starts of at least five innings and fewer than three runs allowed. He’s only struck out more than four batters once in a game, and that won’t change with the Marlins team strikeout percentage of 17.1% over the last week. Even though they don’t strike out a lot, they don’t score a lot either, only crossing the plate seven times since Monday.
Honorable Mention: Dan Straily ($12,700)
IF: Matt Carpenter, STL ($9,900) @ KC (Danny Duffy)
Usually when players are young and developing their game power and swing, there’s a notion that doubles hitters like Miguel Andujar will eventually become 30 home run hitters. It’s really unusual for a 32 year old to have that sort of change, but it’s what Carpenter has done this year. Compared to his career best home run season, Carpenter’s HR/FB% is up seven percentage points. Of late, 70% of Carpenter’s batted balls have been fly balls, and 60% have been hard contact. Duffy has been extremely volatile all season, if it’s one of those games where he’s not in a groove it’ll be really beneficial to have Carpenter in your lineup.
Honorable Mention: Francisco Lindor ($10,300)
OF: Mookie Betts, BOS ($11,300) @ BAL (Yefry Ramirez)
I was really tempted to go with Haniger here since his price tag is $7,600 and he’s led the league in doubles this week with five, especially since Mookie is so expensive, but Charlie Morton scared me off just enough to give Mookie the nod even at the $3,700 premium. Aside from the matchup, there’s a reason Mookie is the most expensive position player today. He’s had the best OBP and second best SLG in the short week, only struck out twice, and even nabbed a base. Another reason to love Betts: in offensive WAR per plate appearance, Betts ranks #1 in the league, sitting 3.59 standard deviations above average. Mike Trout ranks #2 at 3.40, and Jose Ramirez #3 at 2.61.
Honorable Mention: Mitch Haniger ($7,600), Andrew McCutchen ($7,400)
Value Hitter: Austin Jackson, NY ($7,400) vs. MIA (Dan Straily)
Whether you take the splits over two series plus a game or one, Jackson ranks as a top five hitter by wRC+. He’s not walking at all, but when your batting average is over .600 it doesn’t really matter whether you’re walking or not. Jackson’s not a guy who can give you a three homer performance like we saw from Ronald Guzman last night, but getting on base as often as he has puts him in position to score and drive in runs.
Honorable Mention: Franmil Reyes ($6,600)
Stack: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (Yefry Ramirez)
Trying to stack the Dodgers against Freeland in Colorado today is trying to find a piece of Floralwhite colored hay in a stack of Seashell colored hay (I’ll attach a picture of what that looks like in a grid at the bottom): Not worth the effort because it’s really difficult to do and probably won’t be all the effort in the end. Instead, stack the Red Sox, who’ve been far and away the best hitting team this week and have guys like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brock Holt available for $7,500 and $6,900 respectively.
Honorable Mention: Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland A’s
