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We’ll be focusing on the six late games tonight (which is the “main” slate), which start at 7:05 PM EST.
Must Play SP: Rich Hill, LAD ($18,700) vs MIL
The Brew Crew just bolstered their lineup considerably by adding Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop, but that’s not enough to keep Rich Hill from being the top dog in tonight’s action. Simply put, Rich Hill is too good to ignore in DFS when he’s healthy due to his ability to utterly dominate even the most intimidating lineups in baseball. His last two outings have been brilliant — he’s 2-0 after allowing just 8 hits, 1 run, and 5 walks while striking out 17 over 13 innings, and those starts came against these Brewers and the Braves (a top 5 offense against lefties). This game is in Dodger Stadium, where Hill has been less than good this year (4.59 ERA in 33.1 IP), but I’m chalking up his home/road splits this season to statistical noise due to the 2.37 ERA he had in L.A. in his 17 starts there from 2015-2017. Hill’s upside is always somewhat limited by his fragility, but he is great at making the most of the 6-7 innings he can provide.
Honorable Mention: Anibal Sanchez, ATL ($15,500) vs MIA
Value SP: Luke Weaver, STL ($13,600) vs COL
So far, Luke Weaver has alternated between bad months (5.17 ERA and 14 BB in April, 6.75 ERA and 14 BB in June) and good months (3.33 ERA and 6 BB in May, 3.00 ERA and 7 BB in July). Tonight, he’ll face the infamous Road Rockies in St. Louis. The Rockies have struggled on the road this season, striking out in 24% of their plate appearances while managing a wimpy .301 wOBA outside of their very friendly home confines. When you combine that with the Rockies 28th ranked 81 wRC+ against righties, you see a nice opportunity for Weaver to start August off on the right foot.
Honorable Mention: None. I would avoid the other low price options.
IF Jedd Gyorko, STL ($7,600) vs COL (LHP Kyle Freeland)
Sometimes this stuff writes itself. In this case, we have a left-handed starter who has struggled against righties (.329 career wOBA v RHB) and who is due for significant regression (3.18 ERA despite a 4.08 FIP and 4.50 SIERA) facing off against a righty who has a history of absolutely mashing against southpaws (.356 career wOBA v LHP). It’s a classic example of the stars aligning for a hitter and I recommend taking advantage.
Honorable Mention: IF Lucas Duda, KV ($8,100) @ CWS (RHP Dylan Covey)
OF Daniel Palka, CWS ($8,400) vs KC (RHP Jakob Junis)
The 26-year-old outfielder’s best tool has always been his power, and he’s put that power on display by swatting 8 dingers over 70 trips to the plate in July, good for second-most among outfielders that month. Opposing starter Jakob Junis has allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 7 starts and has a career .345 wOBA allowed to lefties like Palka, who should hit somewhere in the heart of the order.
Value: IF Omar Narvaez, CWS ($6,700) vs KC (RHP Jakob Junis)
It feels odd suggesting a catcher in a format that does not require you to roster one, but this is one of the rare circumstances where it may be advisable. Narvaez had been a monster since June began, slashing .379/.422/.589 with a 34.2% line drive rate. He’s also been far and away the best White Sox hitter against lefties (.361 wOBA, 131 wRC+). I don’t love that he’ll probably find himself towards the bottom of the order — he’s hit in the bottom third of the order in 12 of his last 15 starts — but if you are using a few of the more expensive options, this is a good spot to be thrifty.
Honorable Mention: OF Ender Inciarte ($7,200) vs MIA (RHP Pablo Lopez)
Top Stack: White Sox vs Royals (RHP Jakob Junis)
It’s a predictable move after recommending two South Side players already, but Junis has allowed 5+ runs in 5 of his last 7 starts while serving up 13 home runs. While lefties have fared better than righties, Junis has been quite generous to both, and the White Sox have 8 players with a wOBA of .320 or better against righties this season — Omar Narvaez, Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, Avisail Garcia, Nick Delmonico, Matt Davidson, Yolmer Sanchez, and Jose Abreu. Feel free to pick and choose amongst these guys to fill out your lineup.
Honorable Mention: Cardinals vs Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland)
Pitcher List is excited to be partnering with FantasyDraft, featuring advice articles every morning through the entirety of the 2018 season. Signup and play for free at FantasyDraft.