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The Weekend is here and it’s time to relax – well unless you are a baseball player. Sounds like a really hard job. All teams are scheduled today but the Main Slate starts at 7:05 p.m. ET – leaving us 6 games to choose from. Let’s get to it.
Top SP: Rich Hill, LAD ($18,400) @ OAK
The top pitcher for the main slate is Jameson Taillon valued at $23,300, which is a little expensive for me even with a juicy matchup against the Marlins. Hill has been a better pitcher over the past 2 seasons and comes at a discount of almost $5,000 compared to Taillon. Don’t be scared of the Diamondbacks Offense as they are ranked 21st in wRC+ on the road. Hill pitches much better at home and it was easy to see last year – 2.77 vs 4.06 ERA. If you are still not convinced, here is what Hill has accomplished in his last two home starts against the D-Backs – 13 IP, 3ER, 18Ks, 3 Hits. Yes Please!!!
Value SP: Garret Richards, LAA ($13,900) @ KC
Richards has tremendous upside today in his start against the Royals as they are one of the worst offenses in the league and have lost their last 4 games. Control issues have been the problem early on for Richards – an absurd 7.2 BB/9 should come back down especially when he has never had this issue before. Richards had a sub 2.50 ERA for the last two years but the problem is he hasn’t pitched more than 35 innings in either season. There is always strikeout upside with Garret but he will have to limit the walks and this seems like a perfect opportunity as Royals rank 27th in walks taken. He should finally be able to pitch into the 6th inning.
Honorable Mention: Taijuan Walker, ARI ($14,900) @ LAD
IF: Robinson Cano, SEA ($9,000) vs OAK
Cano is hitting over .400 in 2018 and I know he won’t be able to keep it up, but you don’t want to miss out on this hot streak either. His recent form combined with his pitcher vs batter data (9-18 with 4XBH) make him a must draft for today. That is .500 average and its doesn’t even include 2 walks. Cano has owned Graveman in the past with an average exit velocity of 99.6 mph and I don’t expect that to change today.
Honorable Mention: Eric Hosmer, SD ($9,200) VS SF
OF: Gregory Polanco, PIT ($8,900) @ MIA
Pirates’ hitter gets a very nice matchup against a rookie pitcher and could easily be stacked by a lot of teams tonight. I can easily see Polanco being drafted by more than half of the teams and I wouldn’t blame them. He is shown a lot of improvement from last year with 5 HR already after hitting a disappointing 11 last year. He has been taking more walks but striking out a lot more as well and his hard hit% has seen an increase of 15%. Another trend to notice is Polanco’s struggles against lefties. In 2017, he struck out 22.7 % against LHP compared to just 12.1% against RHP – That trend has continued so far. These struggles shouldn’t be a problem today as the Pirates go against Trevor Richards, a Rookie RHP.
Honorable Mention: Starling Marte, PIT ($8,600) @ MIA
Value IF: Jean Segura, SEA ($6,600) VS OAK
Segura is criminally undervalued today. There aren’t many players that hit over .300 while stealing 20+ bases and hitting for 40+ XBH in 2017. It was no fluke either as he was even better in 2016. With Segura, you always have a chance of getting a stolen base or two to go along with decent pop and great batting average. Mariners are at home against OAK and that is good news for “Mean-Jean” as he had a better average along with hitting 7 of his 11 HR at home
Honorable Mention: Derek Dietrich, MIA ($5,900) VS PIT
Stack: Pirates @ Marlins (RHP Trevor Richards)
As mentioned in the Polanco section, the Pirates have a dream matchup against Marlins. Trevor Richards is a rookie pitcher for arguably the worst team in MLB. To his credit, Richards has had success in the minors but he skipped AAA and the majors are not forgiving. I expect him to struggle against the power of Polanco, the speed of Marte, and the patience of Josh Bell. A couple of my cheaper favorites are – Colin Moran ($6,900) and David Freese ($5,900). Keep an eye on the lineups.
Honorable Mention: Brewers @ Mets (RHP Matt Harvey)