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Celebrate Father’s and Nola Day on this fine Sunday afternoon.
Early Slate (1:05 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Lance McCullers, HOU($22,400) @ KC
The Royals are only one of two offenses that have been worse than the Mets since Memorial Day. McCullers has been under-performing his strikeout expectations for how elite his curveball is, and the Royals have surprsingly good plate discipline (under 20% K%), but they’ve been hitting a ton of ground balls, which plays right into Lance’s game.
Honorable Mentions:Jon Gray ($15,800), Aaron Nola ($24,800)
Value SP: CC Sabathia, NYY($14,800) vs. TB
CC has performed really well at home this year, even though the underlying metrics suggest there’s some regression coming his way (4.25 FIP, 4.53 xFIP). He doesn’t provide many strikeouts, but since the Rays have been struggling to put runs on the board, he should give you ~6 innings of 0-2 ER.
Honorable Mention: Sam Gaviglio ($14,600)
IF: JT Realmuto, MIA ($8,200) @ BAL (Dylan Bundy)
Dylan Bundy has a homerun problem. He’s #8 in FB% and #23 in HR/FB% among qualified starters. Camden Yards is #5 in MLB Park Factors for HR. I know what you’re thinking: “Drennan, when are you gonna mention Realmuto?” Right now. Realmuto has had a 159 wRC+ in June, hit 3 HR this week, and is making a ton of hard contact. Pair that with Bundy’s HR problem, and we may witness the the second double-double dong of the week.
Honorable Mentions: Evan Gattis ($8,400), Didi Gregorius ($9,000)
OF: Eddie Rosario, MIN ($9,400) @ CLE (Shane Bieber)
Bieber is getting another chance against the Twins, but I think that gives Minnesota more of an advantage than it does Bieber. Rosario has been a stud all season, but he’s really ramped up his game in June. .379/.455/.828 with 7 HR and a K% under 10…Yeah, the man is on fire, and Bieber doesn’t have enough cold water to douse the flames.
Honorable Mentions: Christian Yelich ($8,300), George Springer ($10,100)
Value Hitter: Tony Kemp, HOU($6,300) @ KC (Brad Keller)
You don’t get HR power from Kemp, but he’s got a knack for getting on base and a ton of speed. The way the Astros offense has been firing on all cylinders, he could score a couple runs and maybe get an SB if Hinch lets him run. He’s slugging .459 in June, so xBH are not out of the question either.
Honorable Mention: Max Kepler ($6,300)
Stack: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
Houston has scored 51 Runs this week. You can get Max Stassi, Marwin Gonzalez (finally playing well), and Tony Kemp, and still have $79,600 to work with for your other 7 roster spots. (Sorry if this was an overly heavy Astros post)
Honorable Mention: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Mercer, Meadows, Moran)
Late Slate (4:05 PM ET)
SP: Zack Wheeler, NYM ($12,700) @ ARI
Wheeler posted 5 strong innings against Atlanta before imploding in the 6th (5 of his 6 ER came in the 6th inning), and had Sewald not grooved a fastball to Albies, Wheeler could’ve walked away with 2 ER across 5 2/3. In the 4 games prior to Tuesday, Wheeler produced a 2.52/2.52/3.69 ERA/FIP/xFIP. E-Rod has a greater likelihood of posting the strongest outing, as he’s been more consistent over the last 30 days, but in a one day sample I’ll roll the dice with Wheeler. Their peak performances are nearly identical (29.95 Points for Wheeler, 30.25 for E-Rod).
Honorable Mention: Eduardo Rodriguez ($19,400)
IF: Brandon Crawford ($8,400) @ LAD (Caleb Ferguson)
Crawford has been seeing the ball well of late, ranking #18 on the Fangraphs Offensive WAR leaderboard over the past 14 days. Over the course of his career, Crawford has hit for a slightly higher average against LHP than RHP, so a matchup against the inexperienced Ferguson should create a productive day for Crawford.
Honorable Mentions: Ketel Marte ($7,200), Max Muncy ($9,000)
OF: Michael Conforto, NYM ($7,700) @ ARI (Clay Bucholz)
Conforto has been considered a streaky hitter throughout his career, and that is evidenced by his 14-Game Rolling wOBA, courtesy of Fangraphs:
His baseline for this year is nowhere near as elite as it was last year, but some of that can be attributed to (probably) not being fully recovered from last year’s posterior capsule tear. He’s homered twice in this series against Arizona, and his wOBA over the last 7 days is .360. He had a .365 wOBA from 5/13 – 5/26 , and .287 from 5/27 – 6/8. He could be in the middle of another hot-ish streak.
Honorable Mention: Joc Pederson ($8,400)
Value Hitter: Enrique Hernandez, LAD($6,800) vs. SFG (Chris Stratton)
We’ve seen a surprising power surge from Kike this season, as he’s only 1 HR shy of last year’s total in 78 less games. This series, it’s been HR or bust for Hernandez (2-7, 1 BB, 2 HR), but I prefer the chance at 16 points from Hernandez over a low ceiling Nick Ahmed at the same price.
Honorable Mention: Pablo Sandoval ($6,500)
Stack: Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland (Daniel Mengden)
Mengden is the poor man’s Miles Mikolas. They’re both pitchers who try to generate soft contact, don’t strike out too many batters, and have the #2 and #3 ‘staches on Pitcherlist.com (#1 belongs to Alex Fast). The difference between Mikolas and Mengden is how their soft contact comes into play. Mikolas is a ground ball pitcher, Mengden a fly ball pitcher. Of late, those fly balls have been Home Runs, and it’s not due to bad luck according to his 7.17 SIERA in those games.