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Game slate for today has been split in two. Play Early, Late, or Both!
Early Slate (4:05 PM ET)
Must Play SP: Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($23,700) vs. MIN
Carrasco seems to have corrected the issues that plagued him at the turn from May-June, posting a 0.64 ERA in his last two starts, which is supported by a strong 1.78 SIERA and 39.6 K%. The Minnesota Twins have been struggling of late, their wRC+ is 4th to last over the past week, so enjoy what’s been Cleveland’s tastiest Cookie.
Honorable Mention: Sean Newcomb ($18,500)
Value SP: Luis Castillo, CIN ($12,800) @ PIT
As a new writer for the Pitcherlist, it’s a rite of passage to fawn over Luis Castillo and his beautiful changeup. Seriously though, his changeup gets a 50.5% O-Swing, 36% Z-Swing, and 29.5% SwSt. That’s money. Castillo has also been extremely unlucky over his last three starts, posting a 3.74 SIERA that’s been overshadowed by an ugly 7.47 ERA. Some positive regression is due his way.
Honorable Mention: Fernando Romero ($12,300)
IF: Freddie Freeman, ATL ($10,900) vs. SD (Jordan Lyles)
Yesterday, High Heat‘s Chris “Mad Dog” Russo said Freeman doesn’t qualify as a superstar because he’s not a top 10-15 player in the league. Freddie Freeman ranks #1 in the National League in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, fWAR, and wRC+. Sadly, it doesn’t appear as if Russo made the $ values for today’s FantasyDraft, but I still think Freeman is a worthwhile investment for your lineup. SunTrust Park was designed for him to succeed.
Honorable Mention: Jose Ramirez ($9,700)
OF: Juan Soto, WAS ($8,500) @ TOR (Marco Estrada)
Soto ranks 3rd on the OF wRC+ leaderboard since June 1st. Mike Trout ranks 4th on that list. I’m in love with the Soto, I got him for the low low ($2,600 lower than Trout to be exact). That leftover cash will be vital for stabilizing the back end of your lineup for this slate of games
Value Hitter: Colin Moran, PIT ($6,800) vs. CIN
Moran has been seeing the ball better since the beginning of June. His BB% is up, his Soft Contact % is down, and he’s been putting the ball in the air more often than he’s been putting it on the ground. Yes, I do have Castillo as my value pitcher for this slate, but both Moran and Castillo can enjoy success without ruining the other’s day.
Honorable Mention: Trey Mancini ($6,800)
Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Since his 1 Hit, 10 K gem on May 15th, Lyles has only allowed fewer than 4 runs once, and that was against the Miami Marlins. The Braves teed off on him June 5th in San Diego (11 H, 8 ER, 2 HR). Expect much of the same in the launching pad of SunTrust Park.
Late Slate (8:05 PM ET)
SP: Patrick Corbin, ARI ($23,700) vs. NYM
There’s been concern over Corbin’s velocity drop and how that could lower the effectiveness of his pitches. The Mets do not care about your effectiveness. They have scored 20 Runs and are batting .147 since June 1st. They’re a team that’s struggled against LHP all year, so throwing a lefty at them when they’re nearly pulse-less is guaranteed success for Corbin. The only way I’d bet against the Mets more is if DeGrom were on the mound tonight.
Honorable Mention: Alex Wood ($13,100)
IF: Cody Bellinger, LAD ($8,100) vs. SFG (Madison Bumgarner)
June and Bellinger mashing the ball seems to be more of a causal relationship than a correlated one. Last June, he was taking the MLB by storm. This June, he’s resurrecting what was a disappointing start to the season. Madison Bumgarner still looks one-two starts away from being his dominant self, so I’ll ride the hot bat, especially at $1,ooo discount to his teammate, Max Muncy.
Honorable Mention: Kris Bryant ($9,100)
OF: Andrew McCutchen, SFG ($9,000) @ LAD (Alex Wood)
The same logic that applied for Bellinger applies to McCutchen. All season long, his batted ball profile suggested his SLG and OBP would see some positive regression. He makes hard contact 47% of the time, and he’s had more HR since June 1st (5) than he had from March-May (3). He’s also hit .034 higher against LHP for his career, so he looks like a safe play.
Honorable Mention: JD Martinez ($11,100)
Value Hitter: Mike Zunino, SEA ($6,400) vs. BOS (Steven Wright)
Zunino has been hitting the ball well when he makes contact (.513 SLG). Zunino making contact is the biggest difficulty (.283 OBP), with his K% at 47.6% this month. Knuckleballers are hard to gauge of peripheral stats, but I think Wright’s ERA will be met with some regression to that could play in Zunino’s favor. A lot of unpredictability here, but that’s what makes DFS fun.
Stack: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals (Carlos Martinez)
Martinez hasn’t looked great in his two starts since coming off the DL, and the Cubs just put up 13 runs against the Cardinals last night. There aren’t too many options in this slate of games, but a hot offense against a pitcher still nursing his body back to full form off an injury is my favorite of the later games.