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A lot of teams play early today which leaves us with a 7-game main slate. The weather is clear and none of the games should be in danger. Fewer games = Fewer options – which means the ownership percentage for players will be higher.
Top SP: Patrick Corbin, ARI ($25,500) vs LAD
Corbin is clearly the best pitcher today and his high priced for it. You should take that chance as the other top pitchers (Tanaka and Porcello) face each other and both of those teams possess a lot of offensive threats. Julio Teheran ($17,000) is $7,500 less but has a low ceiling. Corbin has a career 2.87 FIP to go along with a 26% K-rate and a BAA of .217 against the Dodgers. He has been absolutely nuts this year with a 2.15 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. The strikeouts are the real difference maker tonight but they have declined in his past two starts. I am going for upside today.
Honorable Mention: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY ($17,500) @ BOS
Value SP: Nick Pivetta, PHI ($14,000) @ SF
In his last start, Pivetta only lasted an inning and was tagged for 6 runs. That was one of the worst games of his career and I don’t see a repeat this time around. Pivetta has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts and even go fairly deep into games but it all depends on his ability to limit walks. In a small sample size, Pivetta has been much better at home and I think he continues that trend. Alex Wood and Joey Lucchesi are priced similarly but their opponents are capable of putting up a lot of runs. I am rolling with Pivetta as the Phillies should be able to win this one.
Honorable Mention: Wade LeBlanc, SEA ($9,100) @ TOR
Top IF: Ozzie Albies, ATL ($10,100) @ TB
I expect both the pitchers mentioned earlier to be on a lot of teams – which means we will have to set ourselves apart with the batters. Albies is good, but I don’t expect him to grace a lot of lineups tonight due to his high price tag. I expect people to spend an extra $100 and get Freeman instead but I am going to zig while others are zagging. The Rays will have one of their bullpen games with Ryan
Yeah Bro Yarbrough starting. Albies can bat from both sides of the plate but he loves facing lefties as demonstrated by his .455 AVG.
Honorable Mention: Josh Donaldson, TOR ($9,100) VS SEA
Top OF: Nelson Cruz, SEA ($8,200) @ TOR
Cruz is old, but still hits a lot of Home runs. He is 1-3 with a HR against Jaime Garcia. The hope here is a HR since Cruz gets most of his points with Home Runs and RBIs. He has a favorable matchup to go along with a favorable ballpark. And I always love bringing this up but the Mariners have an elite top-heavy lineup. The price is fair and affordable. Dee Gordon should also be considered at the same price since he has a high floor. But, I am following the theme of high-risk/high-reward players today.
Honorable Mention: Dee Gordon, SEA ($8,200) @ TOR
Value OF: Justin Smoak, TOR ($6,400) VS SEA
Smoak is in a slump and is hitting an unimpressive .252 but don’t give up on a guy that hit 38 Home runs last year. He started 2017 by hitting 4 home runs in the month of April, and he did the same exact thing this year. He could be turning a corner and coming back home, where he is hitting .290, will help. Smoak loves facing lefties – He hit .332 against them in 2017 and is following that trend by hitting .357 in 2018. To further prove this point, Smoak is 2-2 with 2 home runs against Wade LeBlanc.
Honorable Mention: Brett Gardner, NYY ($6,400) VS BOS
Stack: Orioles VS Royals (LHP Erik Skoglund)
I feel like I am either stacking or stacking against the Orioles every other day. I don’t know if that is good or bad (just an observation). Get your Lefty Mashers in the lineup tonight. Orioles have started but they were also missing a crucial piece to their team with Schoop on the DL. Manny Machado ($9,000) is a no-brainer if you have the cash but also consider some of these players:
Adam Jones ($7,300)
Trey Mancini ($7,500)
Jonathan Schoop ($6,600)
Danny Valencia ($6,000)
I also like both Chance Sisco ($5,800) and Caleb Joseph ($4,800) but the problem is only one of them will start, so make sure to check the daily lineups.
Honorable Mention: Dodgers VS Diamondbacks