As the season unfolds, I’ve broken down every MLB team’s starting rotation and forecasted them with each team’s upcoming schedule. You may ask, why would you do this? The most straightforward answer is finding the best upcoming matchups for the lesser-known starting pitchers.
This way, we can maximize the end of our rosters and try to squeeze every last ounce of value that might be available on a waiver wire. Or, perhaps, drop a fringe-worthy pitcher early due to horrendous matchups. Churning your roster at the correct times is critical to late-season management. Think about it this way: do you really need to hold onto that pitcher if you’re not going to start him in these key weeks?
Indeed, we are ranking these matchups based on the opponent’s offense, and here are my offensive tiers to do so. Also, please don’t get too held up on the offensive ranks… it’s early and there are always surprises.
Dave Swan’s Offensive Tiers
(OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
(DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
Diamondbacks’ Expected Schedule
- Wednesday (5/3) is wide open for a certain prospect (Brandon Pfaadt) to get the call. Just sayin’.
- Although, hearts could get broken if Arizona decided to give Merrill Kelly the start on short rest.
- Great stretch for Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson but meh, they haven’t been viable options.
Atlanta
Atlanta’s Expected Schedule
- Mike Soroka has already made a few starts in the minors, albeit not the best appearances. However, he should be making an appearance in the rotation soon. Where? That’s the biggest question. My guess, he makes an appearance Friday(5/5).
- For now, I’ll leave it as a six-man rotation. If news changes expect an update.
Orioles’ Expected Schedule
- With adequate rest days, this rotation should be easy to predict for the next several weeks.
Red Sox’s Expected Schedule
- An injury to Garrett Whitlock bumps him out of the mix, and back down to a five-man rotation.
- Where things might get dicey is at the second start for Bello/Sale, due to the extra OFF days. Unless they give the extra rest, someone could get skipped. For now, it’s just wait-and-see.
Cubs’ Expected Schedule
- Javier Assad will slide into Caleb Kilian’s spot in the rotation, as he wasn’t efficient in his most recent start.
White Sox’s Expected Schedule
- Nice clean schedule ahead with no real concerns, outside of the matchups ahead.
- Mike Clevinger has a decent first couple of starts but is walking nearly as many as he strikes out. Pass!
Reds’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Reds are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. CHW, NYM, NYY, and STL.
- Yikes! These matchups are rough, look elsewhere for anything streamable.
Guardians’ Expected Schedule
- Nine consecutive home games after the initial series (@NYY) aren’t too bad.
- Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee did not disappoint and should be plucked off your waiver wire ASAP.
Rockies’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Rockies are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. ARI, MIL, PHI, and CIN.
- Finally! Some decent spots to grab an SP from the Rockies…however, don’t do it!
- Recent injuries have decimated this rotation. Peter Lambert and Connor Seabold could get a look at the rotation.
Tigers’ Expected Schedule
- Extra days off will keep everyone fresh. Additionally, the only area of concern is the two extra OFF days, but that’s nearly two weeks out.
Astros’ Expected Schedule
- Without knowing the extent of José Urquidy’s injury, he’s remaining in his rotation spot. Although, that might be a decent spot in a few weeks if he requires a stint on the IL.
Royals’ Expected Schedule
- Nothing but home games for the next three series. Furthermore, you could talk yourself into Singer/Yarbrough vs. Oakland since it isn’t an offensive juggernaut.
- UPDATE: Rotation shuffled on Tuesday.
Angels’ Expected Schedule
- The Angels utilize a six-man rotation, which is good because everyone stays fresh. But, also, not so good because you’ll rarely ever see a two-week starter from here.
Dodgers’ Expected Schedule
- The Dodgers are tough one to predict, at the moment. Surely, we’ve heard Gavin Stone will make his debut on Wednesday.
- However, we don’t know what the future of Noah Syndergaard. Due to the added OFF days, they don’t NEED to go with a six-man rotation. It’s worth monitoring since Thor could end up on the outs.
Marlins’ Expected Schedule
- Bryan Hoeing looked fine in yesterday’s start. Additionally, he’s run into a nice stretch of start but unless you’re in a super deep league, it’s not worth the waiver wire claim.
Brewers’ Expected Schedule
- Adrian Houser is inching closer to a return from the IL. When he does come back, will it be in the bullpen? Or, will Rea fend him off and stick in the rotation?
Twins’ Expected Schedule
- Kenta Maeda needs a stop on the IL. That opens the door for Bailey Ober to claw his way back into the mix.
- Tyler Mahle is out for at least four weeks. Insert Louie Varland (maybe?). He could be probably “more than just a guy.” However, he’ll get no easy matchups to start, so don’t get too crazy in 12-teamers.
Mets’ Expected Schedule
- Max Scherzer is eligible to return on Tuesday (5/2) from his suspension. That’ll leave an opening on Monday(double-header) for someone… it appears to be Denyi Reyes. He’ll be widely available everywhere.
- Reyes and Tylor Megill will get starts on Monday, and Megill will slot into that spot the rest of the way.
- Keep in mind, there is a bunch of moving parts (including Justin Verlander returning) and you could see movement through the rotation. However, the matchups are spectacular.
Yankees’ Expected Schedule
- There are almost no OFF days in the next few weeks. We might see some of the SPs pulled a little sooner than we’d like.
- For those waiting for Carlos Rodón, sorry, but it appears he might not be back until sometime in June.
Athletics’ Expected Schedule
- Without Fujinami in the rotation, they can go to a standard five-man rotation.
Phillies’ Expected Schedule
- For the next couple of weeks, Philly has a challenging road ahead. Luckily, there are added days of rest, and for the most part, been very effective.
Pirates’ Expected Schedule
- Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez get a nice pocket in their 2nd and 3rd starts. In deeper leagues, they’re worthy of a waiver claim. Although, both are performing above their metrics, so proceed with caution.
Padres’ Expected Schedule
- Due to the extra OFF days, the Padres are able to switch to a five-man rotation and use Nick Martinez out of the bullpen.
- The priority pickup in this rotation should be Seth Lugo. He’s been serviceable, even without a ton of Ks. Additionally, he could be a sneaky source for Ws.
Giants’ Expected Schedule
- The Giants are becoming one of the more difficult rotations to predict. However, things might be leveling out, now that they’ve got fewer options.
- The offense hasn’t been stout enough to carry them, and the SPs rank fourth-lowest in the MLB with 130.1 IP. Still, with plenty of enticing matchups ahead, they need to be on your radar.
Mariners’ Expected Schedule
- After a gem by Easton McGee, he winds up on the IL.
In McGee’s spot should likely be Chris Flexen.However, he wasn’t able to lock down the role previously and the team could elect to bring up one of their blossoming prospects.- UPDATE: Bryce Miller steps into the rotation.
Cardinals’ Expected Schedule
- Adam Wainwright has already made several starts in the minors. He should easily slide into Jake Woodford’s spot in the rotation.
- There is a bounty of good matchups in the upcoming weeks. So, monitor closely for streamers.
Rays’ Expected Schedule
- Tampa Bay has limited their SP’s innings more than any other team. That shouldn’t be a shock as many of them don’t face the batting order more than two times in a start.
- UPDATE: Javy Guerra will serve as an opener on Tuesday.
Rangers’ Expected Schedule
- No deGrom. Sorry!
- In deGrom’s place, Dane Dunning should slot in. With the extra OFF days, he’ll likely get skipped, work his way up, and start (@SEA) in Week 6.
Blue Jays’ Expected Schedule
- Blue Jays start with three road series but get rewarded with an extra break for likely Chris Bassitt.
- It’s not-so-smooth sailing after the road trip as the matchups are no fun either.
Nationals’ Expected Schedule
- Plenty of shades of green to scoop off the waiver wire. However, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray should be the targets. The rest is hail mary plays if you completely whiffed in deeper leagues.
I think the Cubs get WSN 4 times this week (not 3), so Wesneski’s second start will be vs MIA.