Drew or False?

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Tuesday.

Drew Rasmussen @ TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 52 pitches.

I love when pitchers throw hard and Drew Rasmussen is one of them. His heater sits 96/97 mph and it’s allowed him to constantly go 4/5 innings, with tonight against the Jays as no exception: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 52 pitches. But Nick, why have you been labeling him as a “Do Not Start” then? Because that’s all he has.

The #2 pitch in Rasmussen’s repertoire is a slider he tosses about 30% of the time and it looks nice and has fortunately returned a .229 BABIP, but carries a pedestrian 27% CSW with a low 11.5% SwStr rate. That isn’t the secondary pitch you want to rely on. It may be why the Rays only let him go five frames at most and with a date in Toronto, the stat line above was the absolute peak. A three-strikeout outing = a peak!

With a five-inning cap, a lack of depth in the arsenal, and a tough schedule ahead (TOR + @HOU), Rasmussen just isn’t the guy I want to carry on my rosters. It’s too bad, that heater is solid and I just want him to go six innings with a better breaker and easier schedule. That’s life, I guess.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Jordan Lyles vs HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Lyles is a Werewolf and had his sparkling slider today, boasting a 47% CSW on the sweeper here. Don’t get seduced, he gets the Yankees next and this will likely turn sour awfully quick.

Dillon Peters vs CIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.

Five frames is still the longest Peters has gone in a start and this one came with a whopping ten changeup whiffs against a solid Red squad. The pitch held a 23.5% SwStr rate entering today and there could be something to this. Well, who does he face next time out? …Miami. OHHHHHHH. I’d be lying if I wasn’t intrigued for a super sneaky stream.

Wily Peralta vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.

It was the battle of the Jakes Peraltas and Wily did everything he could to not lose. I’m pretty impressed he survived, to be honest, as y’all know this is a Birthday PartyHope the cake was good.

Freddy Peralta @ DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 71 pitches.

Peralta earned a King Cole and was his best self, all while staying under 75 pitches. And didn’t get the Win because Wily lived up to his name. That’s baseball, Suzyn. It’s good to see him in a groove and it’ll be interesting to see where he goes in drafts next year.

Tony Gonsolin vs ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 67 pitches.

So the slider wasn’t nearly as good as we saw last time, but I’m glad he was able to survive six as he was on the limited sub 70 pitch count we expected. So let’s say it’s 75-80 pitches next time out…I don’t really care since it’s Coors and that’s a clear sit. I’d circle his following start in Arizona as a possible stream, with the off chance of the Brewers after that as well.

Anthony DeSclafani vs SD (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 88 pitches.

Awesome work Tony Disco, even if it came with just a trio of punchouts. The slider was solid, the heater earned strikes, and you got a ton of balls in play that found gloves. It’s still a tough schedule ahead, though, with Atlanta + Coors next. I think you’re okay next time out, but it’s a bit riskier than I’d like it to be.

Nathan Eovaldi @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.

That curveball truly is everything. 48% CSW in this one and it has carried him through the entire year. I didn’t believe it would be this consistent and I’m honestly thrilled for Nathan. He’s been searching for this pitch for what feels like a decade.

Tyler Anderson vs BOS (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.

Honestly, this is kinda great in a start where we expected disaster. Now it’s @OAK, @LAA, LAA and there could be value through to the end for those leaning on Tyler. He’s a Toby and I wager he’ll be good in 2/3 of those outings. That’s worth it.

Gerrit Cole @ BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 108 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Mostly. His slider wasn’t nearly what it should be but the curveball took shape and the heater was fantastic per usual. It’s good he can make it work without his #2 pitch.

Erick Fedde vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.

Y’all remember the rule – Don’t Trust The Feddes*. *Unless he pitches against a team that rhymes with Darlins. Guess what. He faces the Marlins again next start. PRAISE BE.

Triston McKenzie @ MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.

Awesome stuff McKenzie. It’s been fantastic watching you blossom in the second half after driving us up the wall in the first half. He finally got the feel for his slider and curveball, propelling the effectiveness of his fastball even further. I’m here for it.

Joe Ryan vs CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 67 pitches.

Atta boy Joe. Streaming Record: 86-68. Hey, that’s palindromic! Anyway, Ryan was removed in the sixth after taking a comebacker to the wrist of his pitching hand and fortunately, he’s OK. Let’s hope he can make his next start against the Cubs as he’s in a fantastic groove with his heater + slider/changeup/curveball secondaries.

José Berríos vs TB (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

Oh snap. That’s a 3.43 ERA on the year for Berríos and it may the year he finally holds an ERA under 3.50. He has three starts to go – @TBR, @MIN, BAL – and I’m hoping he has it in him. The man deserves that one career year, you know? Update: Berríos was removed with an abdominal issue. Monitor this situation.

Adrian Sampson @ PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 72 pitches.

There’s nothing in his arsenal to latch onto and we’re left wondering wishing his name was Brock. Now that would be cool.

Jon Gray @ ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.

We didn’t know how to feel about Gray heading into Atlanta and I’m glad it went well. The slider was solid, the fastball sat 95/96, and the command was good enough. It gets a little easier now with the Nationals ahead and this should be enough to give us the green light.

Marcus Stroman vs STL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 89 pitches.

Another excellent start from Stroman as he steamrolled the Cardinals with his slider, putting it on display with 46% CSW across 44% usage (yessss!) and hinting at a King Cole in the process. You should be pumped to see his slider performing this well and it gives us confidence he can survive against Boston.

Jake Woodford @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 61 pitches.

Ah, the Amish Mustang. You sit 91 mph while earning 1/21 whiffs on your slider + curveball + changeup. Oh. Yeah.

Luke Weaver @ LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.

Well, yeah. It’s the Dodgers and Weaver is still just four-seamer/changeup. This wasn’t supposed to work.

Jake Arrieta @ SF (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 68 pitches.

Did you expect anything different? Why? 2015 was six years ago. 

Lucas Giolito vs LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.

It’s a Gallows Pole for Giolito, despite laboring through four. The Angels fought off plenty of pitches to extend at-bats, but for a pitch returning from an IL stint, his stuff looked great. I know you needed a better ERA for your playoffs, but those needing him next week should feel encouraged.

Charlie Barnes vs CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 71 pitches.

Y’all know you’re bucking Barnes and we don’t need to talk about Chuck over here. Yeah, but would you chuck Chuck if you could chuck Chuck? Of course I would chuck Chuck if I rostered Chuck. K.

Logan Allen @ MIN (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 63 pitches.

We didn’t expect a whole lot here and Allen didn’t have his best. That’s LA LA Land for ya. Logan Allen, Logan Allen land? What is he, the Manhattan of the Mid-West? Sure, let’s go with that.

Touki Toussaint vs COL (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.

We had concerns about Touki’s volume in this one, but at least he had his curveball working a bit more than his last three starts. Sadly, nothing else complemented it and this went south. Now it’s the Giants and you have such an easy decision to move on.

Jesús Luzardo @ WSH (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.

Blegh. The fastball usage sat around 45% as the curveball was nothing compared to what it should be. We’re talking 0/31 whiffs, en route to his HAISTBMBWT?! and it’s a sad day. The good news is he gets the Nationals a second time and that offense is begging to get steamrolled by a proper curveball. I understand swapping him for something else as it could have been a bright spot but not a true revolution, but I’m leaning toward Luzardo making the adjustment and doing well next time out. Likely just wishful thinking. Up to you.

Kyle Gibson vs CHC (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.

So it’s a bit of a Dusty Donut with a 1.00 WHIP and surprising us with seven strikeouts. I can’t really say his stuff was so great to make me think this was just poor luck and he’s all fixed, and I’d be careful against the Mets next time out.

Packy Naughton @ CWS (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 58 pitches.

Sadly, Naughton does not Packy a punch.

Frankie Montas @ KC (ND) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 64 pitches.

Nooooooo! The incredible run of Montas came to a dramatic halt as his command was all over the place. We’re talking a ton of pitches in the middle and a ton of pitches nowhere close to the strikezone. It’s [insert pun name of Frankie that you’re okay with because there are so many not-okay ones] Montas and I’m hoping he returns to form against the Angels so we feel totally fine with the Astros after. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for this one start.

Jackson Kowar vs OAK (ND) – 1.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 39 pitches.

OKAY OKAY I GET IT. Man, I was encouraged by Kowar’s stuff but I still put him in the Do Not Start tier, hoping he could show a man ready to make a statement. NOPE. Nothing was good. I get it, we’re going to move on. Please, can we move on?

Wade Miley @ PIT (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

Miley earned just one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) and tanked your ratios against the Pirates after being a steady rock all year. Blegh. It may shock you to know Miley’s ERA raised to only 3.09 after this start – he’s been that good of a Toby this season. That WHIP took another beating, though, sitting at 1.29 for the year. Yiiiiikes.

Alexander Wells vs NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.

He’s no David. Are you talking about the perfect game pitcher or the foe of the Goliath? Yes.

Zack Greinke @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 75 pitches.

Yiiiikes. Not the time or place, Greinke. It stinks – a lot – but you gotta try to brush it off and start him again versus the Angels. He’s better than this, y’all know that.

 

Game of the Day 

 

Trevor Rogers vs. some other Rogers – It’s the battle of the Neighborhoods and I’m hoping Trevor can step back into the limelight of a defacto ace.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

  • Avatar Mario Mendoza says:

    And Fedde gets Marlins one more time next week… would you take him over Kowar @CLE and @DET, Singer @DET?

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