Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Whenever the Rockies play at home, their matchup looms over the entire slate. Every team plays on Tuesday night, but assembling a DraftKings lineup all hinges on how much exposure one wants to a showdown between Colorado and San Francisco at Coors Field. Anyone who craves Nolan Arenado ($5,600) or Trevor Story ($5,500) against Madison Bumgarner will need to save some dough elsewhere. Luckily there’s an affordable pitching bargain and some enticing cheap bats to fund such a purchase.
Top SP: Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($10,100) at SD
This is a tough call, as Syndergaard is priced as an ace coming off a complete game shutout rather than a pitcher still looking to repair a 5.02 ERA. With a 3.22 FIP and .260 xwOBA, DraftKings knew gamers would have attacked a soft price. While there are a handful of strong options on top of the catalog, Syndergaard is facing a Padres offense with the highest K rate (27.1%) against righties. The Blue Jays are right behind them, so Jose Berrios is also in play. Thor, however, gets the edge because he’s $300 cheaper and pitching in a more favorable park.
Honorable Mentions: Jose Berrios ($10,400) at TOR; Caleb Smith ($9,500) at CHC; Jon Lester ($9,000) vs. MIA.
Value SP: Tyler Mahle, CIN ($7,000) at OAK
Oakland’s righty-heavy lineup has notched a subpar 89 wRC+ and .145 ISO against righties. That makes them the perfect opponent for Mahle, who has gotten clobbered by lefties (.410 wOBA) while flourishing versus fellow righties (.293 wOBA). The 24-year-old has shown some promise early in 2019, posting a 4.09 ERA with 33 strikeouts and seven walks in 33 innings. Despite the DH’s presence, pitching in the Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum instead of the Great American Ball Park boosts his value. He’s an especially strong choice if Khris Davis (hip) doesn’t play.
Honorable Mention: Collin McHugh ($8,200) vs. KC.
1B Brandon Belt, SF ($4,400) at COL (RHP Antonio Senzatela)
The Belt breakout will never happen, but he’s still touting a .340 wOBA following a three-walk Monday. Since he hasn’t homered since April 23, a lefty batting in the heart of San Francisco’s lineup is affordable for a trip to Coors Field, where he’s a career .319/.379/.562 hitter. The opposing Senzatela carries some reverse splits, but he has gotten staked to a 5.08 ERA and .483 slugging percentage at home. Joe Panik ($3,900) also represents an interesting bargain atop the lineup, but a star second baseman delivers more bang for your buck.
Honorable Mentions: C Buster Posey ($4,500) at COL (Senzatela); OF Tommy Pham ($4,500) vs. ARI (RHP Taylor Clarke); OF Bryce Harper ($4,500) at STL (RHP Dakota Hudson).
2B Jose Altuve, HOU ($4,300) vs. KC (LHP Danny Duffy)
Hitting .316/.361/.658 through April 19, Altuve has since seen his slash line dip to .244/.333/.496. As a result, he’s available for $4,3000 instead of $5,300. The slight-of-stature second baseman possesses a larger-than-life .385 wOBA against lefties over his career. While Duffy was sharp in his last turn against Tampa Bay, he has ceded nine homers to righties (.250 wOBA) and 99 to lefties (.334 wOBA) in the majors. Prepare for a high ownership rate in cash contests due to Altuve’s success (9-for-19, three doubles, two walks) in their head-to-head meetings.
Honorable Mentions: SS Carlos Correa ($4,800) vs. KC (Duffy); 2B/3B Howie Kendrick ($4,300) at MIL (RHP Freddy Peralta); 2B Adam Frazier ($4,000) vs. TEX (RHP Adrian Sampson).
Value Bat: SS/OF Chris Taylor, LAD ($3,600) vs. ATL (LHP Max Fried)
Drawing a trio of southpaws in San Diego, Taylor sprung off the bench to bat 7-for-13 with two home runs. He should draw another start against Fried, whose early success comes with a 3.70 SIERA. Consider Taylor a strong punt play at shortstop or outfielder to save salary for an ace and one of Colorado’s star sluggers.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Turner ($3,700) vs. ATL (Fried); Nate Lowe ($3,600) vs. ARI (Clarke); Garrett Hampson ($3,600) vs. SF (LHP Madison Bumgarner)
Lineup Stack: Reds at Athletics (RHP Mike Fiers)
Remember when Cincinnati’s offense was ice cold? The Reds plated 37 runs in a four-game series against the Giants. They will now face another California club in a more spacious park, but at least they’re facing a fly-ball machine with a 6.81 ERA. Fiers has already surrendered eight homers in as many starts, and lefties have especially made him suffer (.357/.395/.586) to start the season. Given these trends, it’s surprising to see the entire Reds lineup priced so reasonably.
- OF Jesse Winker ($4,300): He’s batting third in the lineup with nine home runs and a .381 wOBA against righties, making him a slam dunk in cash contests.
- 3B Eugenio Suarez ($4,100): Suarez has touched them all in each of his last three games, upping his OPS from .771 to .840. Six of his 10 big flies have come against fellow righties.
- OF Yasiel Puig ($3,900): Although struggling mightily to start 2019, Puig may be turning a corner. He has tallied six hits, two walks, a homer and a steal in his last three starts and has fared far better against righties than lefties since 2017. The risk-reward profile makes him a better GPP fit, but this cost for a cleanup hitter against a weak opponent is too tempting to pass up in cash contests as well.
- Joey Votto ($3,500): Votto hasn’t hit for any contact (.229 average) or power (.139 ISO) this season, but he sure is cheap for a leadoff hitter facing Fiers with a .341 OBP and Hall of Fame track record.
That four-player stack may not even include the team’s two most popular players for Tuesday’s slate. Nick Senzel ($4,300) will be a hot commodity after homering three times in four games to start his career. Derek Dietrich ($4,500) is improbably the most expensive of them all following his weekend outburst. It’s a fair price to ride a hot hand against the perfect opponent.
Honorable Mentions: Giants at Rockies (Senzatela); Astros vs. Royals (Duffy); Rays vs. Diamondbacks (Clarke).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is akgould4) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).