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Top SP: Walker Buehler, LAD ($9,600) vs. NYM
Buehler has been phenomenal over the past month, posting a 2.30 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings. He’s coming off four straight quality starts and should be able to throw another one tonight against the Mets as he’s at home in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. For a pitcher of Buehler’s caliber, his price tag is actually pretty cheap. That’s why I prefer him to Blake Snell or James Paxton, who are great options but will cost you more. Buehler will anchor your staff and can be considered in any contests.
Honorable Mentions: Blake Snell ($11,300) vs. TOR; James Paxton ($10,700) vs. SD.
Value SP: Pablo Lopez, MIA ($6,600) vs. SF
Despite an awful 5.40 ERA this year, Lopez has actually been stellar at home, with a 29.9% strikeout rate, a 4.6% walk rate, and a 1.93 ERA. While there’s definitely some randomness to his home/road splits, Marlins Park is an extremely pitcher-friendly park, and a young pitcher such as Lopez is likely much more confident at home. More than anything, though, his matchup with the Giants is why Lopez is so attractive tonight. San Francisco has just a .284 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this year, which is third-lowest in all of baseball. At this low a price, Lopez is absolutely worth taking a chance on.
Honorable Mention: Anthony DeSclafani ($7,000) vs. PIT.
SS Trea Turner, WAS ($4,400) at ATL (RHP Kevin Gausman)
Turner has gotten off to a cold start since returning from the injured list, which makes him a buy-low candidate for today. Speed is probably the most overlooked skill in DFS, but Turner can score you lots of points on the basepaths. As the Nationals’ leadoff hitter, Turner is especially valuable in cash games, as he will see more plate appearances, which gives him a high floor. Of course, he is also a great bet to score a run any time he gets on base. Turner is usually priced like an elite bat when he’s playing well, so buy in now.
Honorable Mentions: 3B/SS Manny Machado ($3,600) at NYY (LLHP James Paxton); 1B Paul Goldschmidt ($4,200) at PHI (RHP Aaron Nola).
OF Yasiel Puig, CIN ($4,200) vs. PIT (LHP Steven Brault)
I’m trying to get as many Reds hitters as I can on the early slate against Brault, who has a 7.11 ERA with a 6.16 FIP. Puig’s inconsistencies this year may lead you to avoid him in cash games, but he’s a perfect target in GPP tournaments—with six homers and five steals in the past month, Puig brings a ton of upside. He should have plenty of RBI opportunities out of the Reds cleanup spot, as they’re at home in a hitters’ park. Puig is a great play as a standalone and is an essential piece in a Cincinnati stack.
Honorable Mentions: OF Nicholas Castellanos ($4,400) at BAL (LHP John Means); OF Bryce Harper ($4,500) vs. STL (LHP Genesis Cabrera).
Value Bat: OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($3,300) at OAK (RHP Daniel Mengden)
Ohtani isn’t hitting very well right now, but don’t forget how good he was last year. In 2018, Ohtani had 22 homers and 10 steals in just 367 plate appearances. He also put up a monster 182 wRC+ against righties—therefore, I’m not worried about him struggling in an 18-game sample this year. A’s starter Daniel Mengden has scraped by with a 3.31 ERA this year, but as a guy with a walk rate (15.3%) that’s nearly as high as his strikeout rate (18.1%), he’s a pitcher who will obviously regress and is somebody we want to target. Ohtani is still batting third behind Mike Trout and should be deployed in this matchup.
Honorable Mentions: OF Ian Desmond ($3,900) vs. ARI (LHP Robbie Ray); OF Eloy Jimenez ($3,800) vs. KC (RHP Glenn Sparkman).
Lineup Stack: Indians at Red Sox (RHP Ryan Weber)
Weber has had success through 14 innings this season, but as a pitcher who has very little experience in the majors at almost 29 years old and is coming off of a 5.04 ERA in Triple-A, he’s obviously somebody to build a stack against. The Indians bats should thrive in one of the best offensive environments in the league, Fenway Park, and lots of them are affordable. Jose Ramirez ($4,000), Jake Bauers ($3,600), and Jason Kipnis ($3,700) are all very cheap and should be near the top of the lineup. Francisco Lindor ($5,200) and Carlos Santana ($4,900) are outstanding elite plays.
Honorable Mentions: Reds vs. Pirates (Brault); Phillies vs. Cardinals (Cabrera).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).