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Top SP: Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,000) vs. CWS
Even on a day with plenty of elite pitching from which to choose, Cole stands above the rest as Wednesday’s top starter. Cole has already racked up 93 strikeouts in 60 2/3 innings, good for an outrageous 38.3% strikeout rate. He has enormous strikeout upside against the White Sox, whose 26% strikeout rate against righties is fourth-highest in all of baseball. Cole isn’t just about strikeouts, as he’s also got a 2.74 FIP and a 2.55 SIERA. With his combination of floor and ceiling, you can confidently trot out Cole in both GPP contests and cash games.
Value SP: Max Fried, ATL ($8,500) at SF
While Fried doesn’t have the same kind of strikeout upside as other starting pitching options today, he’s a rock solid investment against the Giants. San Francisco’s lineup has a pathetic .265 wOBA versus left-handed pitching this year, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. They also play in an extremely pitcher-friendly park, of which Fried will get to take advantage. Fried has been excellent this season, posting a 2.86 ERA with a 3.01 deserved run average to back it up. He should excel in this matchup.
Olson has already been showcasing his power since returning, mashing four homers in two weeks. He’s in a great spot for both runs and RBI as Oakland’s 3-hitter, especially against Indians starter Jefry Rodriguez. Rodriguez has just a 15.8% strikeout rate with a weak 4.33 FIP, so the A’s could have a big day against him. I particularly like Olson in GPP tournaments, where his feast-or-famine profile plays best.
Senzel has established himself as the Reds leadoff hitter, which is a fantastic spot for his fantasy value. Senzel is able to maximize the number of plate appearances he gets leading off, which provides more opportunities for him to produce—this makes him attractive in cash games. Senzel is also in a spot to score runs in a hitter-friendly environment in Milwaukee. While you would think Zach Davies would be a tough matchup, his 1.54 ERA is tremendously unsustainable by nearly every metric: his 4.85 SIERA and 4.08 DRA are a more accurate representation of his talent level.
Morales has been pretty awful this season, but there’s hope for anybody against Dan Straily. Straily has hilariously bad numbers, with an 8.51 ERA, 2.93 HR/9, and a walk rate (9.4%) nearly as high as his strikeout rate (10.7%). Getting picked up by the Yankees has rejuvenated Morales’ value, as he now gets to bat fifth for New York, which will give him lots of RBI chances. It’s tough to ignore Morales in the late slate at this price, as he should thrive in a hitters’ park in Baltimore.
Lineup Stack: Twins at Angels (RHP Matt Harvey)
The Twins lineup has been phenomenal this year, and many of their hitters are surprisingly affordable in this matchup against Matt Harvey. Harvey has an atrocious 6.35 ERA and should get shelled tonight. Eddie Rosario ($4,600) is one of my favorite high-end bats, while Max Kepler ($4,100) is a cheaper guy with whom to pair him. Jonathan Schoop ($4,100) and Willians Astudillo ($3,600) are awesome picks as well.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).