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Top Play SP: Patrick Corbin, WAS ($10,000) vs. NYM
There are quite a few great pitching options to consider for today’s 9-game slate. One of them is in this very same game in Zack Wheeler ($9000). But I’ll opt to spend a little extra for the home favorite here (-130 as of this writing) in Patrick Corbin. His K-BB% of 24.8% last year leads the slate. He’ll also face a New York Mets lineup that has a major problem in that they are not well equipped to face tough left-handed pitching. The Metropolitans’ best hitters — Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeill — are all left-handed and they will be facing an uphill battle against the tough southpaw who struck out lefties at a 33.5% clip last year. He wasn’t half bad against righties either, as he struck them out at a 30% rate. Rookie Pete Alonso will certainly have his hands full here too. The K floor and ceiling for Corbin is hard to ignore.
Honorable Mention: Jon Gray, COL ($9,400) AT MIA.
Value SP: Michael Pineda, MIN ($7,400) vs. CLE
You may have missed it but Jake Odorizzi carved his way through the Indians order yesterday notching 11 K’s through six innings. This Indians lineup right now isn’t too good. Michael Pineda has always had a very solid K rate and he performed well this past spring striking out 20 in 20 innings while also managing a WHIP under 1.00. It’s his first big league start back after Tommy John surgery so this isn’t exactly for the faint of heart. Sonny Gray ($7,600) against a modest Pirates lineup is probably a little safer of an SP 2 target if you’re not too enthused with the volatility of Pineda.
Honorable Mention: Sonny Gray, CIN ($7,600) vs. PIT.
Bonus Value SP (GPP Only): Trent Thornton, TOR ($5,900) vs. DET
One last name I’ll mention if you want to get really frisky with your 2nd SP is Trent Thornton ($5,900). He’ll be making his major league debut against a not so great Tigers lineup that may also be sans Miguel Cabrera after he was hit by a pitch on the hand yesterday. Thornton had some impressive numbers across 124 IP in AAA last year including a 23.6% K rate and a nice 6% BB rate. He could be an interesting boom/bust type dart throw for GPPs.
Top Play: OF Teoscar Hernandez, TOR ($4,100) vs. DET
This is a tricky slate for bats. But thankfully we have Matt Moore who gives up hard contact. A lot of it. Last year his 44.8% hard-hit rate was in the bottom 2% of the league. His fastball was clobbered by righties in particular to the tune of a .448 wOBA (.455 xwOBA). Meanwhile, Teoscar Hernandez is no stranger to delivering hard contact himself, as he notched a 45.9% hard-hit rate last year. There’s certainly some swing and miss to Hernandez so I have to acknowledge that but Moore’s well below-average 18.3% K rate mitigates the risk a bit. You can also certainly look to his teammate Randal Grichuk ($4300) here as well.
Honorable Mention: Scott Schebler, CIN ($4,200) vs. PIT.
Top Play: OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS ($4,300) at KC
The White Sox rookie phenom gets Jorge Lopez here. Lopez’s 6.8% K-BB% from last year is among the worst of the starting pitchers toeing the rubber today. Last year’s .351 xwOBA was good for the bottom 8% of the league. So this is a good draw for Eloy Jimenez. He hasn’t knocked out the elusive first home run just yet through his first two games but perhaps third time’s a charm here.
Honorable Mention: Jorge Soler, KC ($4000) vs. CWS.
Value Bat: 3B Yandy Diaz, TB ($3,400)
Yesterday, Yandy Diaz hit 5th for the Rays against Collin McHugh. Here he’ll hold the platoon advantage against lefty Wade Miley. The ever-enigmatic Miley carries the dubious distinction of having the worst K rate among today’s starters at a ghastly 14.8%, which males him a pitcher worth targeting with opposing batters. Last year, in a limited 120 plate appearance sample, Diaz hit the ball exceedingly hard as he featured a well above-average 44.4% hard-hit rate (92.1 average exit velocity). Now if only he could up that launch angle a bit.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Drury, TOR ($3500) vs. DET.
Top Stack: Yankees vs. Orioles (RHP Dylan Bundy)
This one is pretty simple. Dylan Bundy has well-known home run issues. A trip to the bandbox in the Bronx will probably do no favors to the man who allowed 41 home runs last year. There are a couple of things to note here. Bundy was a little more giving to LHB last year as his fastball was pummeled by lefties for a .416 xwOBA (.388 xwOBA vs RHB). His slider was a big-time whiff pitch against righties so maybe, just maybe he can skate by the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. But that seems like really, really wishful thinking. The Yankees have the highest implied team total by quite a bit at 5.5 runs so expect a ton of traffic here in terms of ownership. If you’re playing GPPs don’t hesitate to get a little creative and look to include pieces from the bottom of the order too.
Honorable Mention: Blue Jays vs. Tigers (LHP Matt Moore).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.