Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Top Play SP: Stephen Strasburg, WAS ($11,100) at ATL
He gets a tough matchup against a stingy Braves team (.334 team wOBA, 102 wRC+ vs RHP in 2019) but Stephen Strasburg (23.8% K-BB%, 3.44 SIERA) is just head and shoulders above all the other options tonight. If you’re looking to spend up he’s the clear choice. Tonight’s second-highest priced arm of Jose Quintana (14.9% K-BB%, 4.46 SIERA) looks like an easy fade considering his elevated price point and the fact that he’s headed to Miller Park to face the Brewers for the second time in as many starts.
Honorable mention: Miley, SEA ($9,900) vs SEA (Marco Gonzales).
Value SP: Nathan Eovaldi, BOS ($5,800) vs. MIN
I know, I know: The Twins are a scary offense (.345 wOBA, 115 wRC+ vs RHP in 2019), but do you know what else is scary? The other value pitching options on this slate. Nathan Eovaldi has at least shown some excellent ability last year with a 17.8% K-BB% and 3.71 SIERA. He was fantastic in his last start, racking up eight Ks in just four innings. He was able to clear 80 pitches in his last start, so we should see him continue to creep his way to the century mark. At this cheap price I’m perfectly fine with taking the risk here on a short slate.
Given the lack of options tonight and the matchup against the Marlins, I think we have to at least mention Dario Agrazal; however, given the complete lack of K upside (11.5% K rate this year), I’d think I’d be more than happy to let others chase this.
Honorable mention: John Means, BAL ($6,100) vs TEX (Kolby Allard).
Top Play: OF J.D. Martinez, BOS ($5,300) vs. MIN
Martin Perez has been better this year, as he’s managed to jump his K-rate from a ghastly 13.1% last year to a more reasonable, though still below average, mark of 19.1%. Overall, though, Perez and his 4.95 SIERA and 1.50 WHIP represent one of the more exploitable matchups of the day against a very dangerous offense in the Red Sox. You know the drill anytime the Red Sox are slated to go against a beatable LHP. J.D. Martinez’s splits against LHP are quite frankly silly this year with a .544 wOBA and .246 wRC+. Yikes.
Honorable mentions: OF Mookie Betts ($5, 000) vs MIN (Perez); OF Yordan Alvarez ($5,200) vs SEA (Gonzales); SS Xander Bogaerts ($5,300) vs MIN (Perez); 1B Anthony Rizzo ($5,100) at MIL (Anderson).
Top Play: OF Nick Castellanos, CHC ($4,500) at MIL
Opposing righty Chase Anderson has been a reverse splits guy for quite some time now and that’s held firm this year—he’s allowed a .392 wOBA and .266 ISO to opposing RHB this year. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos has been dynamite, hitting 12 home runs (.439 wOBA, 173 wRC+) in his short time with his new team. Keep an eye out on the Cubs lineup as both Kris Bryant (.375 wOBA, 131 wRC+ in 2019) and Javier Baez (.347 wOBA, 113 wRC+) are dealing with some injuries. If they are good to go tonight, both provide excellent power upside at their current prices too.
Honorable mentions: 1B Josh Bell ($4,800) vs MIA (Hernandez); 3B/OF Kris Bryant ($4,500) at MIL (Anderson); 3B/SS Alex Bregman ($4,900) vs. SEA (Gonzales); SS Javier Baez ($4,600) at MIL (Anderson); OF (GPP) Ronald Acuna Jr ($4,500) vs WAS (Strasburg).
Value: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR ($3,600) at TB
To his credit, Austin Pruitt has been rock solid for the Rays with a 15.5% K-BB% and 3.91 SIERA across his 37.2 innings, but he has been touched up a bit by opposing RHB to the tune of a .351 wOBA and .239 ISO. The Jays don’t have a great implied total, at just under four runs, but this is just a simple buy-low opportunity on a prodigious talent in Vladimir Guerrero Jr./strong> (.343 wOBA, 114 wRC+ in 2019).
The Orioles have a decent implied total of right around five runs tonight against the young lefty Kolby Allard (15.1% K-BB%, 4.39 SIERA). Renato Nunez (.327 wOBA, 101 wRC+ in 2019) is quietly on his way to a 30 home run campaign and at just $3,900 he could provide some nice salary relief in the middle of the Orioles lineup.
Honorable mentions: 1B/3B Renato Nunez ($3,900) vs. TEX (Allard); 2B/3B Nick Solak ($3,600) at BAL (Means); 2B/3B Hanser Alberto ($3,800) vs. TEX (Allard); 1B/OF Sam Travis ($3,300) vs. MIN (Perez)
Top Stack: BOS vs MIN (Martin Perez)
As mentioned earlier with Martinez, the Red Sox find themselves in a potential blow-up spot going against the susceptible lefty Martin Perez (9.7% K-BB%, 4.95 SIERA, and 1.50 WHIP). Boston leads tonight’s seven-game slate with an implied total now pushing six and a half runs. Given Perez’s strong splits (.343 wOBA, .173 ISO against RHB as opposed to a .268 wOBA, . 063 ISO vs LHP in 2019), we should be looking at the righties here, so in addition to the aforementioned Martinez, Mookie Betts (.343 wOBA, 109 wRC+ vs LHP in 2019) and Xander Bogaerts (.362 wOBA, 122 wRC+ vs LHP in 2019) look like excellent options to consider tonight. Also, if he cracks the lineup tonight, Sam Travis (.325 wOBA, 97 wRC+ vs LHP in 2019) could provide some value for the Boston stack at just $3,300.
Honorable mentions: HOU vs SEA (Gonzales); CHC at MIL (Anderson); BAL vs TEX (Allard)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.