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Top Play SP: Patrick Corbin, WAS ($11,100) vs MIA
Justin Verlander (29.7% K-BB, 3.05 SIERA) is the top arm of today’s ten-game slate, but we’ll look to save a little salary with the lefty Patrick Corbin who has been stellar in his own right this year with a K rate of 28.2% (20.7% K-BB, 3.82 SIERA) to go along with a sharp 3.15 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The big draw here is a date with the visiting Marlins and their anemic offense (.291 team wOBA, 80 wRC+ vs LHP). Corbin and the Nationals are today’s second-largest favorite (-260) just behind the aforementioned Verlander (-300).
Honorable mention: Verlander, HOU ($12,000) at TOR (Wilmer Font).
Value SP: Miles Mikolas, STL ($7,100) vs. CIN
This admittedly feels like a bit of a chase following his latest outing against the Brewers that saw Miles Mikolas tally a whopping 10 strikeouts in six innings while only needing 95 pitches. Those ten strikeouts were actually a career-high for the 31-year-old. While I don’t think we can expect a similar type of outburst today, his underlying numbers (14.6% K-BB, 4.35 SIERA) to go along with a .326 xwOBA and 1.71 GB/FB ratio points to a pitcher who has a very strong floor. His salary makes him really appealing especially when you consider the lack of attractive options in the lower tier today. Mikolas and the Cardinals are solid home favorites (-150) while the visiting Reds have one of the lower implied totals of the slate at under four runs.
Honorable mention: Yusei Kikuchi, SEA ($5,900) at TEX (Mike Minor).
Top Play: SS Trevor Story, COL ($5,700) vs. PIT
The Pirates will be rolling out the lefty Steven Brault for today’s contest. He has the dubious distinction of owning today’s lowest K-BB% of 9.3%. That’s never a good thing, especially at Coors. As you’d expect he’s been significantly worse against RHB with a .343 wOBA allowed to go along with just a 17.6% K rate and 5.44 xFIP. This should bode well for Trevor Story who in addition to hitting leadoff of late, has also hammered lefties to the tune of a .398 wOBA and 131 wRC+ this year.
Honorable mentions: OF Aaron Judge ($5, 200) vs OAK (Sean Manaea); 1BÂ Josh Bell ($5,700) at COL (Jeff Hoffman); 3B Nolan Arenado ($5,600) vs PIT (Steven Brault); OF Yordan Alvarez ($5,700) at TOR (Wilmer Font/Zack Godley).Â
Top Play: 3B/OF Kris Bryant, CHC ($4,400) vs. MIL
This just looks like too cheap of a price for a hitter of Kris Bryant’s caliber. He gets an exploitable matchup against Gio Gonzalez (11% K-BB, 5.02 SIERA) who has also allowed a .360 wOBA to RHB this year. Meanwhile, Bryant has absolutely throttled lefties the past two years with a .465 wOBA and 192 wRC+. His teammate, Javier Baez (.387 wOBA, 142 wRC+ vs LHP 2018-19) looks like a sharp play too.
Honorable mentions: OF Eddie Rosario ($4,500) at DET (Turnbull); OF Jorge Soler ($4,600) vs. BAL (Brooks); OF Ian Desmond ($4,500) vs. PIT (Brault); SS Javier Baez ($4,500) vs. MIL (Gonzalez); C Gary Sanchez ($4,600) vs. OAK (Manaea);2B/SS Gleyber Torres ($4,800) vs. OAK (Manaea); OF Michael Brantley ($4,900) at TOR (Font/Godley)
Value: OF Khris Davis, OAK ($3,600) at NYY
Slugger Khris Davis has been a massive disappointment in 2019 as our own Matt Wallach details here in his excellent article. Today at leasy he’ll get a chance to be revitalized against J.A. Happ, a pitcher who has done nothing to make Yankee fans happy, allowing 32 home-runs (tied for 4th-most if he qualified) and a a .352 wOBA to oppsing RHB. Yes, Davis has been bad, but given his track record he’s worthy of a dice roll as a salary saver here in a plus matchup.
(Honorable mentions: SS Willi Castro ($3,100) vs. MIN (Pineda); 2B/OFÂ Chad Pinder ($3,400) at NYY (Happ); 2B/3B Nick Solak ($3,900) vs. SEA (Yusei Kikuchi); OF Dexter Fowler ($3,900) vs. CIN (Tyler Mahle); 1B Ji-Man Choi ($4,000) vs. CLE (Plutko); 1BÂ Ryan O’Hearn ($3,400) vs BAL (Brooks); 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,500) vs HOU (Verlander).Â
Top Stack: NYY vs OAK (Manaea)
There’s a game at Coors which should always be front and center in our search for offense. Today’s contest features two arms in Jeff Hoffman (10% K-BB, 5.05 SIERA 2018-19) and Steven Brault (7.6% K-BB, 4.99 SIERA 2018-19) who are not good (#analysis). Both teams have implied totals in excess of seven runs so we should anticipate plenty of runs. Though both teams, particularly the Pirates (Yes I’m looking at you, Jose Osuna for $5,500), seemed priced very aggressively making them difficult to stack. We’ll instead focus on another game.
While Sean Manaea had some moments back in 2018 most notably his no-hitter against the Red Sox, his numbers as a whole weren’t great most salient of which is a K rate that sat at just 16.5%, 6th lowest among pitchers with 150 IP or more last year. To his credit, he did manage to carry a sharp 1.08 WHIP though it was most likely aided by a fortuitously low .247 BABIP. He’ll be handed an incredibly daunting task in his very first start back from a shoulder injury – a Yankee team that has mauled lefties this year (.355 team wOBA, 121 wRC+ vs LHP) and at the bandbox in the Bronx no less. The assignment will be made tougher by Aaron Judge (.438 wOBA, 179 wRC+vs LHP 2018-19) who has found his power stroke of late and looks like a fantastic spend up target. Meanwhile, both Gary Sanchez (.347 wOBA, 117 wRC+ vs LHP 2018-19) and Gleyber Torres (.363 wOBA, 128 wRC+ vs LHP 2018-19) provide some great upside at a sub $5,000 price tag. The return of Luke Voit (.398 wOBA, 151 wRC+ vs LHP 2018-19) adds yet another dangerous bat. The Yankees implied total sits in excess of six runs, behind only the two teams at Coors.
Honorable mentions: COL vs. PIT (Brault); PIT at COL (Hoffman); HOU at TOR (Font/Godley)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.