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Top Play SP: Max Scherzer, WAS ($12,200) vs. KCR
On a slate that features a lot of top-end pitching, Max Scherzer gets the nod as my top pitcher. While Gerrit Cole has the highest strikeout rate on today’s slate, it comes along with a match-up against the team that strikes out the fourth least in the league, the Angels. Scherzer on the other-hand faces the Royals, who have a top ten highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. In addition, the Royals rank 28th in the league in ISO against righties. Scherzer is my clear SP1 on today’s slate.
Honorable mention: Shane Bieber, CLE ($10,800) at CIN.
Value SP: Kenta Maeda, LAD ($7,700) vs. SDP
I love this price-point for Kenta Maeda today. He’s affordable and has a great strikeout match-up with the Padres, who have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last six weeks. Unfortunately, you know when rostering Maeda, you’re also getting a limited pitch count. Maeda hasn’t exceeded 100 pitches since his first start of the season on March 30th. Regardless, he still has slate-breaking upside, as he showed the last time he faced the Padres on May 15th, where he put up a massive 41.2 DraftKings points.
Honorable Mention: Max Fried, ATL ($6,500) vs. MIA; Rick Porcello, BOS ($7,300) at DET.
Top Play: OF Juan Soto, WAS ($5,300) vs. KCR
Anytime the Royals roll out Glenn Sparkman, I’m going to look to take advantage. Sparkman has a 12.1% strikeout rate and has allowed a 42.6% hard-hit rate for the season. He’s been especially bad against left-handed batters, giving up a 47.8% hard-hit rate, which has led to a .325 ISO and .391 wOBA. This means Juan Soto will be the first bat I lock into my lineup. For the year, Soto has a .234 ISO and .405 wOBA and while I don’t like his 24.2% strikeout rate against righties, that should be negated by Sparkman’s minimal strikeout abilities.
Honorable mention: OF Mookie Betts, BOS ($4,900) at DET.
Top Play: 3B Matt Chapman, OAK ($4,500) at SEA
There are times when you realize a player is having a good year without realizing just how good they’ve been and that’s the case for me with Matt Chapman. Against left-handed pitching, Chapman has a 45.9% hard-hit rate, which has led to a .354 ISO and .372 wOBA. Chapman will face southpaw Marco Gonzales today. Gonzales has just a 16.6% strikeout rate to go along with his 5.14 SIERA. Chapman and the other Athletics’ righties should have a really nice day against Gonzales.
Honorable mention: SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($5,000) at DET; 1B/OF Trey Mancini, BAL ($4,500) at TOR.
Value: OF Khris Davis, OAK ($3,700) at SEA
When I saw this price on Khris Davis, I panicked a little. Has Davis been that bad to the point where they dropped him that low? He didn’t have the greatest June, but he’s only .004 off of his yearly .247 batting average. He also has a .313 ISO and .403 wOBA against left-handed pitching, so I’d say this price is a little too cheap for a match-up with the previously mentioned Marco Gonzales.
Honorable mention: 2B/3B Hanser Alberto, BAL ($3,400) at TOR; 1B/OF Jake Bauers, CLE ($3,500) at CIN; 2B Jason Kipnis, CLE ($3,600) at CIN;
Top Stack: Red Sox at Tigers (RHP Jordan Zimmermann)
Anytime Jordan Zimmermann’s on the mound, I want to take advantage. For the year, Zimmermann has a 5.34 SIERA, which comes along with his 15.8% strikeout-rate. This means I love the Red Sox today. The very, expensive Red Sox. I’m more likely to use a piece here or there as opposed to stacking, but I’m not against going with two of the value pitchers and stacking the big bats up. If the projected lineup stays the way it is, I’m fine with one through nine, so pick your favorites, but I’d be concentrating on the top of the lineup. Mookie Betts ($4,900) is probably my favorite, followed by Rafael Devers ($5,600), J.D. Martinez ($5,000), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000), Andrew Benintendi ($4,300), and Jackie Bradley, Jr. ($3,900). If you’re looking for some cheaper bats to make the Red Sox fit, look no further than the Orioles’ right-handed bats, who face lefty Clayton Richard. Richard has allowed a .283 ISO and .436 wOBA to righties this year. Good luck today and enjoy the All-Star break!
Honorable mention: Nationals vs. Royals (RHP Glenn Sparkman); Orioles at Blue Jays (LHP Clayton Richard).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.