DraftKings Plays of the Day—7/14
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Top Play SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,800) at MIA
Oddly enough Mets ace Jacob deGrom had one of his worst starts of the season against these same Marlins back in mid May where he gave up six runs and over just five innings. That shouldn’t, of course, change our thought process for today. He’ll be set to go against baseball’s worst offense (.284 team wOBA) for the fourth time this year. The lanky righty has had no problem getting K’s this year posting a 30.7% K rate (25.2% K-BB). The Mets are big road favorites (-194) today and the Marlins have the lowest implied total of the slate at just under three runs.
Cleveland’s Shane Bieber has really burst onto the scene this year posting a stellar 31.5% K rate (26.3% K-BB). Both marks are actually better than the aforementioned deGrom. But he’ll get a much tougher assignment against the division rival Twins whose .348 team wOBA leads the league.
Value SP: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY ($8,800) vs TOR
All-Star fill-in Masahiro Tanaka (-200) and the Yankees are big favorites at home today against Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays. Tanaka has shown reasonable skills across the board with a 20.8% K Rate (15.1% K-BB) and a 4.24 FIP. With Tanaka it is sort of a mixed bag in that he has shown his usual sharp control limiting walks (5.8% BB rate) but we know the home run problem that can come up and bite him at any time evidenced by a 17.7% HR/FB rate last year and 21.2% in 2017. That always makes him a sort of an uncomfortable roster but the hope for today is that he gets a friendly matchup against a Jays team that does strike out quite a bit (24.5% K rate) and has shown middling power with just a .300 team wOBA and .177 ISO.
The bottom tier is really rough this afternoon. But if you’re wanting for more of a punt play Brewer’s righty Jhoulys Chacin ($5,800) is a big home favorite against the Giants (-170). However, the underlying skills leave a lot to be desired with just a 9.4% K-BB% rate, 5.61 FIP, and 5.19 SIERA. And making this is even more of a dicey play is that the Giants offense has been clicking lately as they are surprisingly 2nd in runs scored the past two weeks.
Honorable Mention: Jhoulys Chacin, MIL ($5,800) vs. SF (Tyler Beede).
OF: Bryce Harper, PHI ($4,100) vs. WAS
The Phillies have one of the higher implied totals of the slate at over five runs. Anibal Sanchez has not surprisingly regressed some following last year’s sizzling 2.83 ERA. Still he’s sitting at a very respectable 3.66 ERA backed by a reasonable, if unspectacular 20.4% K rate, 4.53 FIP, and 4.92 SIERA. Though this seems to be a matchup that a hitter of Bryce Harper’s caliber should be able to take advantage of. He’ll hold the platoon advantage here at power-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park where gametime temperatures should be apporaching 90 degrees making for some favorable conditions this afternoon. The relatively low price point is a big part of the appeal here too.
Honorable Mentions: OF Aaron Hicks ($4,400) vs. TOR (Marcus Stroman), OF Austin Meadows ($4,400) at BAL (Andrew Cashner), OF Michael Conforto ($4,100) at MIA (Sandy Alcantara), 1B Rhys Hoskins ($4,100) vs. WAS (Anibal Sanchez), OF Kyle Schwarber ($4,000) vs. PIT (Trevor Williams), 2B/OF Ketel Marte ($4,600) at STL (Adam Wainwright).
OF: Juan Soto, WAS ($5,200) at PHI
We just mentioned the other side of this game with Harper and the Phillies against Anibal Sanchez. But Jake Arrieta has been probably even worse sporting an Andrew Cashner-esque 18% K rate (7.4% swinging K rate) along with a 1.46 WHIP. Really, the only thing that Arrieta does well at this point is to keep the ball on the ground with a 1.93 GB/FB rate. This year, lefties, in particular, have really thrashed him for a .387 wOBA allowed. That should bode well for Juan Soto here. The Nationals also have an implied total in excess of five runs this afternoon in a game that should feature plenty of runs scored on both sides.
Honorable Mentions: 3B Anthony Rendon, ($5,400) at PHI (Jake Arrieta), OF Christian Yelich, ($5,800) vs. SF (Tyler Beede), OF Aaron Judge (GPP), ($4,900) vs TOR (Marcus Stroman), 2B/3B Mike Moustakas, ($4,600) vs. SF (Tyler Beede), SS Adalberto Mondesi, ($4,900) vs DET(Jordan Zimmermann), Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) vs PIT (Trevor Williams).
Value: 1B Nate Lowe, TB ($3,600) at BAL
Tampa Rays rookie Nate Lowe had himself a whale of a game this past Friday, racking up four hits including a double and home run. He did it again in the nightcap of yesterday’s doubleheader as he blasted two home runs. Granted it’s the Orioles but this is a player that possesses extraordinary talent and prospect pedigree as he was after all named the Ray’s Minor League Player of the Year as he rocketed through three levels of the minors last year. Today he’ll get one last chance to batter the Orioles and their pitching staff which just lost their scheduled starter Andrew Cashner in a trade to the Red Sox. Given the upside, we’ve seen and the easy price point Lowe vs an Orioles mystery starter seems like a great value to take advantage of.
Honorable Mentions: OF Christin Stewart ($3,400) at KC (Homer Bailey), 1B Paul Goldschmidt (GPP) ($3,700) vs. ARI (Zack Greinke), 1B/3B Jake Lamb ($3,700) at STL (Adam Wainwright), 2B Robinson Cano($3,000) at MIA (Sandy Alcantara).
Top Stack: WAS at PHI (Jake Arrieta)
As mentioned earlier with Juan Soto, today’s Phillies starter Jake Arrieta has been on the decline for several years now as his 18% K rate this year is the lowest its been since he was an Oriole way back in 2011. Add into that recent concerns involving a bone spur in his pitching elbow and Arrieta could present a favorable matchup for opposing hitters. It’s an expensive lineup at the top with Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Anthony Rendon but there is certainly added upside here as they’ll be on the road at a great hitter’s park. Arrieta has also had his struggles with holding runners so there would appear to be added stolen base upside for leadoff man Trea Turner too.
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