Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Top Play SP: Julio Teheran, ATL ($9,000) at MIA
Happy Cinco de Mayo everybody! Today we’ve got an eight-game slate to look at. One quick thing to note right from the start is there looks to be some legitimately nasty weather in Philadelphia and Baltimore (Flash Flood Watch) so I’m going to avoid those games for our purposes. If it does clear up, Zach Eflin ($8,800) is a reasonable play against a Nationals lineup that will be without both Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto.
Without those two games, we’re left with six to look at and I have to be honest this is one of the roughest slates for pitching that I can recall. Julio Teheran gets a favorable matchup against a Marlins lineup that is beyond awful (.273 team wOBA, 25% K rate). Teheran overall has been not good with a 5.35 ERA but at the very least he’s shown some swing and miss ability with a 26.2% K rate backed by a 12% swinging K rate. The Braves are decent road favorites (-120) and the Marlins, as is often the case, are implied to score under four runs.
Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello, BOS ($9,300) at CWS
Value SP: Frankie Montas, OAK ($8,400) at PIT
He doesn’t have a killer K rate at just 21% for the year, but Frankie Montas has shown a pretty nice skill set overall including the ability to induce groundballs (2.42 GB/FB in 2019) and limit loud contact (3.0 % barrel rate and .306 xwOBA). He’ll get a largely punchless Pirates lineup this afternoon (.284 wOBA and .131 ISO) that is currently projected to score under four runs.
Honorable Mention: Spencer Turnbull, DET ($7,900) vs KC.
OF: Mookie Betts, BOS ($5,300) at CWS
The Red Sox get one of the best matchups of the afternoon against Dylan Covey. For his career Covey, along with having a dismal K rate of 15.3% has allowed a wOBA of .350+ to hitters from both sides of the plate. Covey does excel at getting groundballs though (2.20 GB/FB 2018-19). Regardless, this figures to be a spot to attack with Boston bats and the starts with the dynamic Mookie Betts.
Honorable Mention: Christian Yelich ($5,600) vs NYM (Jason Vargas)
3B: Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4,200) vs SEA
I know, I know, Jose Ramirez has been a massive disappointment but the discount and matchup are too good to pass up today. The Indians have one of the better-implied team totals of the afternoon at right around five runs. They’ll face off against the rookie Erik Swanson. In the early going, Swanson has shown excellent control with just a 2.5% BB rate. However, he’s shown little ability to control batted balls with an elevated 10.9% barrel rate and .367 xwOBA. This is a matchup that an incredibly talented hitter like Ramirez should be able to take advantage of.
Honorable Mention: J.D. Martinez, ($4,700) at CWS (Dylan Covey)
Value: 1B Jesus Aguilar, MIL ($3,900) vs NYM
Set to go against the Mets bizarro world ace Jason Vargas it stands to reason that the Brewer’s team total currently leads the slate at right around five and a quarter runs. It’s been a dismal start to the season for one of last year’s waiver-wire gems in Jesus Aguilar but perhaps his two home runs last week off of Kyle Freeland are a harbinger of better results ahead. He’ll hold the platoon advantage today against the lefty Vargas who is not exceptional to put it nicely (4.57 SIERA 1.47 WHIP 2018-19).
Honorable Mention: Robinson Cano, ($4,000) at MIL (Zach Davies)
Top Stack: BOS at CWS (RHP Dylan Covey)
I mentioned it earlier with Mookie Betts, but the Red Sox should be plenty popular on this afternoon’s eight-game slate. And with good reason. The Red Sox are an outstanding lineup and Dylan Covey is not particularly good. Covey has shown an elevated walk rate of just under 10% the past two seasons and he’s allowed wOBA over .350 to both LHB and RHB. So pick your poison here. The top of the lineup gets priority in Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez but in tournaments don’t hesitate to look at bats lower in the order including Rafael Devers ($4,400) or the sensational rookie standout Michael Chavis ($4,700).
Honorable Mention(s): MIL vs NYM (Jason Vargas) and NYM at MIL (Zach Davies) (GPP)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.