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Top Play SP: Blake Snell, TB ($10,700) vs NYY
Happy Mother’s Day to all of the Moms out there! Today we’ve got a nine-game slate to look at. One quick thing to note is there looks to be some rainy weather in Baltimore and New York, so I’m going to avoid those games for our purposes. If the weather in New York clears up then Noah Syndergaard ($10,400) is in a nice bounce-back spot at home against the Marlins. His counterpart Caleb Smith ($9,400) would make for a nice GPP play.
Blake Snell has followed up his breakout 2018 with an excellent start to 2019, evidenced by a silly good 35.2% K rate (28.9% K-BB rate). He’s a solid home favorite (-163) against a very skilled pitcher in his own right in Masahiro Tanaka. This year, Snell has shown the highest K rate of all the pitchers starting this afternoon, so his high floor and ceiling presents a great anchor for your lineups today in all formats.
Honorable Mention: Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($10,400) vs MIA (Weather-Permitting)
Value SP: Martin Perez, MIN ($8,500) vs DET
The AL Central-leading Twins are the second-biggest favorites of the afternoon (-199 as of this writing). Pitching for the Twins this afternoon will be Martin Perez. If you’ve been playing DFS for while, Perez may be someone you recognize as being a popular target for hitters—particularly against righties who have touched him up for a .348 wOBA for his career.
This year, however, his cutter has emerged as a key weapon to help him combat righty hitters. So far the cutter has held right-handed batters to a paltry .191 xwOBA. If you want to read more about Perez and his cutter, our own Ben Palmer dug deep into that very topic. Perez has a long track record of being an average to below-average talent, so it’s hard to say if what we are seeing sticks, but we can definitely ride this out against an awful Tigers lineup that not only has the worst K rate (26.6%), but has somehow managed to hit only one more home run than the Marlins.
Honorable Mention: Corbin Martin, HOU ($8,000) vs TEX. (GPP)
OF: George Springer, HOU ($5,700) at CWS
The Astros are in a prime spot to score some runs this afternoon, as they are set to face off against arguably the worst pitcher of the slate in Adrian Sampson. His sinker, which he throws 56.7% of the time, has allowed an xwOBA of .387 to lefties and .487 to righties. And he doesn’t strike guys out with just a 15% K rate. He’s expensive, but the Astros leadoff man, George Springer, should be worth it today.
Honorable Mention: Mookie Betts ($5,200) vs SEA (Marco Gonzales)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4,300) vs PIT
Including last year, Steven Brault hasn’t been too impressive, carrying an ugly walk rate of 13.7% and a close to average K rate of 20.9%. This is a solid matchup for Paul Goldschmidt, who will hold the platoon advantage here against the lefty. Simply put, this is just a really appealing price point on a very talented and in a plus matchup too. The Cardinals have one of the better implied team totals of the afternoon at over 4.5 runs.
Honorable Mention: Bryce Harper, ($4,700) at KC (Jakob Junis)
Value: 1B C.J. Cron, MIN ($3,900) vs DET
The Twins look to be another team we should be looking to for hitters today. They are set to face Daniel Norris, who was once upon a time a big pitching prospect for the Blue Jays. The past couple of years, he’s been dealing with diminished velocity and the results haven’t been great. This year, he’s shown a K rate of just 17% to go along with an ugly WHIP of 1.48. He’ll be facing a Twins offense whose .348 team wOBA is second only to the Houston Astros (.356). C.J. Cron will hold the platoon advantage and should be in a position to drive in some runs this afternoon.
Honorable Mention: Josh Reddick, ($3,900) vs TEX (Adrian Sampson).
Top Stack: HOU vs TEX (RHP Adrian Sampson)
For the same reasons mentioned earlier with Springer, the Astros hitters look like a great target today. Sampson checks all the boxes for pitchers you like to target hitters against: low K rate, poor control, and very little ability to control batted balls, evidenced by an xwOBA allowed of .365 this year (.381 last year in 23 IP). As of this writing, the Astros have the highest implied team total of the slate at just under six runs.
Honorable Mention: BOS vs SEA (Marco Gonzales)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.