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SP: Julio Teheran, ATL ($5,800) at COL
There’s always a significant risk in taking a pitcher at Coors, but there a couple of things here to note that bolster Julio Teheran’s appeal. One this is a fairly weak slate for pitching where you have Justin Verlander way at the top against the Yankees and then a whole lot of meh. And secondly there a couple of injuries to monitor for the Rockies that could really water down their lineup for tomorrow. David Dahl left Sunday’s game with an apparent oblique injury after a swing and Trevor Story also departed early with soreness near his Achilles. If either or both these bats miss that could help out Teheran a lot in this one. To be clear though, if both of these bats make it into the lineup, I’d say it’s probably best to avoid Teheran.
SP: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY ($8,700) at HOU
This is a tough matchup no doubt, but the discount is appealing. Keep in mind for his last start against the Detroit Tigers Masahiro Tanaka was priced all the way at $10,400. Tanaka has been in great form to start the year too, having struck out 12 without issuing a walk through his first two starts.
Jhoulys Chacin ($8,100) going against an Angels offense that’s really sputtering is also worth a mention. In the early going their team OPS is ranked fifth from the bottom and they’ve been rolled up by some pretty pedestrian arms: the latest being Lance Lynn (7 IP 2 ER). Mike Trout will almost assuredly drive himself in like he always does, but other than that there’s just not too much firepower here.
1B: Trey Mancini, BAL ($4,200) vs OAK
Most will be looking at the other side of this game for bats and rightfully so. Andrew Cashner has long been a popular target for hitters. But don’t forget the Orioles also have a pretty decent implied total for this game at 4.5 runs. Marco Estrada has surrendered a staggering 60 home runs the past two years. I think he’ll bounce back a bit from a truly dreadful 2018, but as an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s not too hard to imagine him coughing some runs up at Camden Yards. Also worth noting that for the past two years he has been a reverse splits guy giving up a wOBA of .389 and .366 to RHB.
OF: Jay Bruce/Daniel Vogelbach, SEA ($4,200) at KC
To his credit, Homer Bailey threw five respectable innings in his season debut against the Twins notching eight K’s and 16 swinging strikes. Maybe he has found something, but it’s just so hard to buy a resurgence for a guy whose SIERA has hovered around five the past two season and who also surrendered 23 home runs in just over a 100 innings in 2018. I’m skeptical and Vegas is too, as they have pegged the Mariners with a generous implied team total of five runs.
I wrote up Jay Bruce yesterday in his matchup against Ivan Nova and, naturally, he sat after hitting two home runs on Saturday while his partner in crime Daniel Vogelbach went boom in his stead hitting two home runs and erupting for a career-high six RBI. There’s not too much to say about Bruce: he made a career against mashing beatable RHP and he’ll get a chance to do some damage against his former teammate. Vogelbach is someone I think a lot of people are really intrigued with myself included. I wrote a deep sleeper post about him and our own Michael Ajeto pegged him for 30 home runs as one of his bold calls for 2019. He absolutely dominated AAA the past few seasons but, unfortunately, until now he hasn’t had much of a chance for playing time in the majors. Both of these bats carry big power upside in this spot against Bailey, who has surrendered a wOBA of .394 and .356 to lefties in each of the past two seasons.
OF: Juan Soto, WAS ($4,800) at PHI
Vince Velasquez had a pretty solid 25.4% K rate last year, but he also had a pretty ugly 9.4% walk rate. To me, his lack of efficiency really limits his efficacy as a starter. Case in point, he averaged under five innings per start last year. That’s at least partly by design, as the Phillies know that Velasquez is not the greatest bet to get through the order multiple times. Also, his lack of a usable changeup has really limited his success, particularly against lefties who have managed to tattoo him to the tune of a .377 and .376 wOBA each of the past two seasons. I love Juan Soto ($4,800) here as a part of a stack or stand-alone play.
Tournament Stack: Phillies vs Nationals (RHP Anibal Sanchez)
Anibal Sanchez was great and all in 2018, but I just don’t think he’s anywhere close to that good. Last year he allowed a measly BABIP of .255 and a strand rate just under 80%. Those numbers figure to sway the other way. I don’t think it’s too crazy to expect some pushback from a guy who allowed 85 home runs from 2015-2017. I’ll gladly take my chances with an exemplary lineup here in the Phillies in a great hitter’s park. They could be overlooked on a slate that features Homer Bailey, a game in Colorado, and the Oakland A’s against Andrew Cashner at Camden Yards.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.