Dinelson of Anarchy
I’ve been labeling Dinelson Lamet as a Cherry Bomb for as long as I can remember, but he really has been something for owners that picked him up…in August. He needed a handful of starts to get settled in after TJS, nothing new there. Including last night’s miraculous 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 14 Ks, Lamet holds a 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 35% strikeout rate across eight starts, even averaging close to six frames per start. That last part is particularly interesting as Lamet had been a “five and done” arm for a bit as the Padres were easing him back. A few things I should mention about Lamet: 1) even with this fantastic start – 41% CSW with 19 whiffs! 96/97 heater! Not a single changeup in sight?! – he’s still a Cherry Bomb. 2) He’s the new Robbie Ray. 3) He may be a super discount in 2020 if people neglect him for more well-known names and truly believe the Padres are still going to baby him – there’s no reason to now. 4) I’m not starting him against the Dodgers unless I only need strikeouts. Yes, this was a great outing and we’re all thrilled about it, but the Dodgers should mess him up a bit, probably resulting in five frames of at least 3 ER. Maybe not, there’s a clear chance of better, but he’s still a huge risk despite this start. Don’t forget that.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Homer Bailey – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. This game was a crazy pitchers’ duel with Bailey and Duffy each tossing seven shutout frames. Bailey got the upper hand with eleven strikeouts to his name, earning a Gallows Pole at 20 whiffs (33/95 CSW). Yep, that splitty was working as well as we’ve seen and with the Angels ahead, I’m game for another spin of the wheel. That’s a 1.88 ERA (3.56 SIERA), 27% K rate, and 0.91 WHIP across his last seven starts. Well done Homer Bale.
Danny Duffy – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Duffy wasn’t as dominating as Bailey and had to squeeze this one out a bit more, but those that chased him for a Quality Start were very much rewarded here against the A’s. I wouldn’t double-dip for the Braves next, though. You won this round, don’t push your luck.
Tommy Milone – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Dunn only went two innings in the end and Milone swooped in for a win, relying on balls finding gloves to make his day. And that’s cool, just nothing I’m going to believe in.
Zach Eflin – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Man, I was scared of this one as I expected Eflin to pound a ton of strikes and the Braves to take advantage. Well, I got half of it right as Atlanta failed to capitalize on tons of strikes. Good on Eflin for executing well enough to leave unscathed, now he gets the Nationals next week and that’s a no from me. I wouldn’t risk this again.
Ivan Nova – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Don’t worry, he’s still going on Saturday, this was a bullpen game after Dylan Covey was scratched. Like a wayward son, carry on.
Casey Sadler – 0.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Where’s Tony Gonsolon? Oh, he pitched two innings in the middle of the game, allowing two earned runs. The Dodgers, man. Yep, the stupid Dodgers.
Adam Wainwright – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Waino, this is kinda ridiculous. That’s a 2.43 ERA over your last ten starts with a 1.33 WHIP and 18% strikeout rate. I guess Vargas Rule this one as he just staved off the Nationals. The wall could come next against the Diamondbacks or possibly the Cubs for one last start on the final day of the year. We’ll see, I’d prefer not to chase this. It just seems so unsustainable, but maybe this is a veteran arm willing his team to the playoffs. I hate that narrative but hey, you never know.
Dylan Bundy – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 8 Ks. Hey that’s a 3.63 ERA over his last six starts…with a 1.53 WHIP. Fiiiiine. The good news is that he gets the Jays again next and that could work if you’re chasing strikeouts. Maybe.
Aaron Civale – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Atta boy Civale. He got the Tigers and exploited to the best of his ability. This is close to the ceiling as he doesn’t have anything in his repertoire that points to consistent strikeouts, but that’s just fine with us. And guess what? He gets the ChiSox next. TURN THAT AC ONTO COOOOOOOOL.
Jon Lester – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Phew, thanks Lester. It’s not masterful or anything, but we’ll certainly be happy with this and makes a little more confident in your start against the Pirates next. More confident, not confident in itself, but if you own Lester, I think you need to do it.
Tyler Mahle – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s not the sexiest line we’ve seen from Mahle, but this is still wonderful. Streaming Record: 98-64. Just 20% CSW is blegh with only four whiffs, but he located heaters up-and-in to LHB all day, earning plenty of outs. His final start will come against the Brewers and that’s an okay outing – not great given the lack of strikeout ability as of late, but respectable.
Jeff Samardzija – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Loose Lips is doing everything he can to not sink your ships, surviving a date inside Fenway. Props to him and all that trusted him, now you’ve been gifted a date with the Rockies in your lovely home of Oracle Park. Good luck, we’re all counting on you.
Spencer Turnbull – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Turnbull faced the Indians and pounded plenty of heaters right over the zone…that worked. Sliders, changeups, and curveballs were all well spotted under, helping earn those eight strikeouts. Good stuff, not the most encouraging for repeated success, but a welcome surprise.
Kolby Allard – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. We didn’t trust Kolby here and he shuffled by for a 3.60 ERA. Good for him, I guess.
Gerrit Cole – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I wonder how much moving away from Houston would affect his value next year. What if he stays in Houston? Wouldn’t that be something.
Jeff Hoffman – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Better than expected here from Hoffman in Coors against the Mets, but nothing to suggest I should be giving him the time of day. JUST LOOK AT THE SUN. Dinelson? You think he’ll know? Probably.
Adrian Houser – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. I’m glad Houser survived a full five frames and nothing hurts here. That’s cool, I guess I’m fine starting him against the Reds next, but the ceiling is clearly capped. Keep that in mind.
Jake Odorizzi – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Odorizzi was served the ChiSox and did exactly what you’d want him to do, save going one more out for the QS, but instead serving you a Philly. Oh, and that WHIP kinda hurts. Blame his cutter that struggled to find the plate but not too harshly. This was cool n all.
Dillon Peters – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. This wasn’t a start to chase against the Yanks and you got nothing out of it. Yay.
CC Sabathia – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. This was the final regular-season start of CC’s career in Yankee stadium (will he see an inning in the playoffs?) and it was far from a representation of what he’s done there over the years. Fantasy wise, not worth your time and the more important news is Domingo German going just 2.1 frames after. That’s annoying as he was pulled with just 44 pitches. Not cool. I hope he gets more next week.
Mike Leake – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. You started Leake because you wanted a Quality Start. Good, now geeeeeet out.
Brendan McKay – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. We didn’t expect more than four frames at most and I’ve moved on from McKay for this season. Next year? I’m all aboard in the late rounds. I’d rather go for guys I can believe can go six full frames in the final week though.
Julio Teheran – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Blegh. I wanted more out of Teheran – just one more frame would have worked! – at least he gets the Royals next. That should be fine.
Dario Agrazal – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Dario, where did those strikeouts come from? Six Ks are more than your last three starts combined and his highest career mark. And you still disappointed us. Some told me working at the D.A.’s office would be rough, but not this rough.
Sandy Alcantara – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Awwww, he was feeling his sinker for a bit but the floor showed up last night against the Phils. Womp womp. He’s destined for yet another last week matchup against the Mets (2018 was wonderful) and I’d still consider him there. The upside hasn’t disappeared.
Jhoulys Chacin – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Chacin will do poorly when we most expect it. Yep, that’s where we are now.
Noah Syndergaard – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. We were all a bit nervous starting Thor in Coors and whatareyagonnado. Just one whiff on 21 sliders ain’t a good thing and Syndergaard tried his best to get by with fastballs. It didn’t end well.
Max Scherzer – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna serve up the Dustiest Donut there is, getting ousted on a two-run shot in the seventh. So close, Scherzer. So close.
Clay Buchholz – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. There was an outside chance this would work against the Orioles and the inside chances took the cake. Those insiders, they get you every time.
For those unaware, I’m forced to make my streamer picks under the condition of sub-20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.
Anthony Kay vs. Baltimore Orioles – With a short slate and only five pitchers eligible as a streamer, I’ll go with Kay and his decent stuff against the Orioles. It’s a bad play. Don’t make it.
Drew Smyly vs. Cleveland Indians – I have my concerns about Smyly and his current approach, but he has been a bit hotter lately and could return value against a Jose Ramirez-less offense.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Justus Sheffield vs. Baltimore Orioles – I’d be targetting this one everywhere as Sheff pitched plenty better than the 5 ER spot you saw last time out. Other options include Ivan Nova against the Tigers, and Anthony DeSclafani hosting the Mets.
Game of the Day
(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)