DFS Primer – May 22

Gus Elmashni breaks down the DFS slate for Saturday.

Welcome to the Sunday edition of the DFS Primer. As I have done with my last few DFS articles, I will share a table displaying my analysis of all pitchers on the main slate. Check it out!

 

 

 

I plan on writing a piece in the near future that discusses my reasons for using the particular inputs in my analysis (most of which are Statcast metrics). For now, focus on the last column. It represents the sum of the rankings for each column with ascending rank for all of the metrics except for K/BB which is a good thing to be high. You might be wondering what the +/- signs represent under the regression columns. If a pitcher’s true wOBA is higher than his xwOBA, then he is due for positive regression. Vice versa if the the true metric is less than the expected one.

With that said, Zach Eflin is the pitcher I want in my lineups. Yes, it is risky to roster a pitcher against the Dodgers. No doubt you will get Eflin at lower ownership. I like Eflin due to his ability to keep the ball on the ground and not allowing hard contact. That is precisely how beat the Dodgers. We may not get the gaudy K stats but on a slate with no true ace on the mound, let’s take the savings at pitcher and pay up for the bats.

The stack I really want to jam into my lineups is Houston. The Astros have struggled a bit lately but are due for major positive regression. The Astros currently rank 7th overall with OPS and 2nd overall with HRs. Lately the Astros have not done much at the plate mustering just 8 runs in their last 4 games. However, they exploded for 11 runs at Minnesota on May 11 and 13 runs at Boston on May 17. They are due for another explosion and it can happen today.

Rangers starting pitcher Taylor Hearn has been awful so far this season and his stats should be worse. His allowed barrel rate is obscene at 12.3 barrels per plate appearance. He is also allowing a lot of hard hit contact at 49.3%. He is  lefty so you will want to get some righties in your Astros stack. Jose Altuve and Jose Pena are two guys you need to roster. They demolish left-handed pitching and both have played well this month. Even though it’s risky, consider Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They haven’t hit left-handed pitching as well as righties but they are the Astros two best power hitters and let’s hope Hearn gets knocked out of the game early so that Alvarez and Tucker can get us some insurance runs.

The other stack is a bit tricky. Tampa Bay is popping up again but I worry about the AAA lineup they are putting on the field due to so many injuries they currently have with their every day starters. Since we are saving money at the pitcher position, let’s splurge a bit more by going with a Seattle stack. Nathan Eovaldi was crushed in his previous start by Houston and Seattle has the power to make things difficult for him again today. The Statcast metrics shown in the table above don’t lie.  You can easily get the top of the lineup for the Mariners while playing the top bats for the Astros and Eflin as your pitcher. Check out the sample lineups below.

 

DraftKings
P: S. Alcantara
P: Z. Eflin
C: M. Maldonado
1B: T. France
2B: J. Altuve
3B: E. Suarez
SS: J. Pena
OF: K. Tucker
OF: M. Brantley
OF: J. Winker

 

FanDuel

P: Z. Eflin
C/1B: T. France
2B: J. Altuve
3B: E Suarez
SS: J. Pena
OF: Y. Alvarez
OF: K. Tucker
OF: J. Winker
UTIL: J.P. Crawford

 

There you have it! Trust the data by going with Eflin and building some Astros and Mariners stacks. Good luck!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Gus Elmashni

Gus Elmashni is a San Francisco Bay Area native and an avid fan of the NBA, NFL, and MLB. He has played fantasy sports since 1993 when a few high school friends and he would tabulate daily NBA results from the San Jose Mercury News and draft new teams every month. Gus has been with Pitcher List since April 2022 writing DFS articles and the Best Bets column. Additionally, Gus works full-time as an educator in Northern California and resides in Sacramento with his wife and two young children.

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