Welcome to the Saturday edition of the DFS Primer! As I have done in my previous DFS articles, I will share a table displaying rankings of the pitchers on today’s main slate using six metrics. Here are those metrics.
1) Barrel rate allowed.
2) Percent hard-hit contact allowed.
3) Expected wOBA allowed.
4) Expected ERA.
5) Flyball to groundball ratio.
6) Strike out to bases on ball ratio.
Using such analysis will help you identify the best value for pitcher and determine which stacks to build. For example, most of the DFS industry was all over Gerrit Cole last night (over 50% ownership) and why shouldn’t they have been? After all, Detroit cannot hit and the Yankees were HEAVILY favored at -350. Cole was perfect through 6 and 2/3 innings and for a while it seemed like he might actually get the perfect game before Jonathan Schoop broke up Cole’s bid for immortality with a single. Cole provided 7 IP with 9 Ks, no ERs, a quality start, and the W.
Do the math and that comes out to 58 fantasy points on FanDuel which is fantastic. The problem is that Cole’s salary was at $10,800 on FanDuel so even though he reached 5x value, there was a pitcher who had a higher ROI and rated higher using my analysis: Zach Eflin. Eflin was just as brilliant as Cole pitching 8 scoreless innings with 6 Ks. Overall he scored 52 fantasy points and returned 6.3x value. Rostering Eflin would have then enabled you to pay up for high priced bats like the Yankees and separated you from the rest of the pack with Eflin’s low ownership.
Those who read my articles know I love to use the following quote from Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” With that in mind, check out the table below.
The main slate will start at 1:05 PM PT for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I am not sure why there are not too many evening games but no complaints here! Who doesn’t love some Saturday afternoon baseball while working out in the yard or cleaning/organizing the garage!
The pitcher who I feel could be like Zach Eflin last night is Aaron Ashby. He may not have the impressive K/BB ratio but he is averaging more than 1 K per inning. He is also keeping the ball on the ground with a jaw-dropping 0.5 FB/GB ratio and a 2.3 barrel rate allowed percentage. Ashby has been great at limiting hard contact and his expected wOBA and ERA are low. Meanwhile, the Padres have had some issues at the plate. They did well against Corbin Burnes last night but prior to that game, the Padres were on a four-game losing streak and managed just 11 runs during that stretch. In fact, they were averaging just 2.5 runs per game for the 10 games prior to last night.
Be greedy when others are fearful. Most DFS players will shy away from Ashby since Burnes struggled against San Diego. They will probably flock to Triston McKenzie or Luis Garcia by only focusing on the matchup but you need to also consider the Statcast metrics if you wish to get an edge over the competition.
As for your stacks, I love to attack the two worst pitchers on the slate based on my analysis. That would be Glenn Otto and Kris Bubic and Vegas seems to agree. Houston has the highest implied run total on the main slate with 5.3 runs and Seattle is not far behind with 4.4 runs. I expect Houston to be popular today given that we don’t have the brand name teams on the main slate such as the Yankees or Dodgers. Also, Houston popped off last night. Still, you can be unique with your Houston stack if you consider some of the lesser-owned pieces.
For example, almost everyone was on the Atlanta Braves two nights ago but those who were shrewd enough to select Travis d’Arnaud most likely took home the big money. This is where we lean on Statcast for some help. If you consider the pitch arsenal for Bubic, it’s quite limited: 4-seamer, changeup, and curve ball. Chas McCormick has hit the four-seamer and changeup very well this season. He bats 8th and is priced quite low. I don’t expect his ownership to be high and you could get creative by building a wrap-around stack with Jose Altuve.
As for Seattle, focus on the top of the order. Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, and JP Crawford all have good Statcast metrics such as barrel rate and expected wOBA. Jesse Winker is due for positive regression and faces a righty today. He will most likely bat leadoff today. Abraham Toro could be a sneaky upside play who is cheap in case you want to pay up for the big-named bats on Houston (here’s looking at your Yordan Alvarez!).
Here are some sample lineups.
DraftKings
P: A. Ashby
P: L. Webb
C: C. Raleigh
1B: T. France
2B: J. Altuve
3B: A. Bregman
SS: J. Crawford
OF: Y. Alvarez
OF: C. McCormick
OF: J. Winker
FanDuel #1
P: A. Ashby
C/1B: T. France
2B: J. Altuve
3B: A. Bregman
SS: J. Crawford
OF: Y. Alvarez
OF: J. Rodriguez
OF: J. Winker
UTIL: C. McCormick
FanDuel #2
P: A. Ashby
C/1B: T. France
2B: A. Toro
3B: E. Suarez
SS: J. Pena
OF: Y. Alvarez
OF: C. McCormick
OF: J. Winker
UTIL: A. Bregman
Good luck today and enjoy the start to your weekend!
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)