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DFS Primer – June 25

Gus Elmashni breaks down the DFS slate for Saturday.

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the DFS Primer! Also, it feels good to be back in the saddle after taking a couple of weeks off from writing for Pitcher List. The family and I had a nice family vacation, something we really needed after no one really did much traveling the past two years thanks to the pandemic. I might be a bit rusty but I still feel good about the selections I have for today.

As I have done in my previous DFS articles, I will share a table displaying rankings of the pitchers on today’s main slate using six metrics. Here are those metrics.

1) Barrel rate allowed.

2) Percent hard-hit contact allowed.

3) Expected wOBA allowed.

4) Expected ERA.

5) Flyball to groundball ratio.

6) Strike out to bases on ball ratio.

Using such analysis will help you identify the best value for pitchers and determine which stacks to build. Here is the table analyzing all of the starting pitchers for the early slate on DraftKings and both the very early and early slates for FanDuel. I wish I could have done the same for the main slate (games starting at 4 PM or later) but we got back into town super late last night.

 

 

Corbin Burnes shows up as the top pitcher but I am hesitant to roll with him. He is priced very high and is facing a very potent offense that is healthy and currently hitting the ball well. I would much prefer Miles Mikolas and Chris Bassitt who both exhibit excellent command of the strike zone and keep the ball on the ground.

However, you can dive down the bargain bin a bit deeper and consider JT Brubaker and Brad Keller. They both face putrid offenses in the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A’s. During the last 30 days, the A’s rank dead last in batting average, runs scored, and OPS. As for the Rays, they are 4th worst in batting average and 3rd worst in both runs scored and OPS during that same time frame.

We all know that the A’s gutted their roster in the offseason, so it should be no surprise that their offense is so bad. It should also come as no surprise that the A’s have the worst record in the majors and of course the worst attendance as well. Sounds like the 1989 movie “Major League” where they deliberately tank to get out of town. Shouldn’t be too long before Las Vegas gets another professional sports team unless the city of Oakland can get its act together with building a new stadium.

Meanwhile, the Rays had looked sharp on May 25 with a 26-17 record and near the top of the AL East standings. Since then, they have dropped to 4th place in a very competitive division and gone 12-15. A big part of the Rays’ current downward spiral is the injuries to key offensive players such as Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Manuel Margot. The current lineup looks like a AAA squad so take full advantage of the Rays’ demise until their star power gets off the injury list.

As for stacks, let’s keep attacking the pitchers who appear at the bottom of my analysis. I can’t fully trust the Royals and White Sox hitters right now, especially with their prices on both DraftKings and FanDuel. At best their batting metrics on Statcast are mediocre such as barrel rate and expected wOBA. However, I can trust the Brewers bats. Yusei Kikuchi has been awful this season and the Brewers have shown a propensity for knocking in double-digit runs when the matchup is right. Go right-handed heavy with Milwaukee by rostering the 2-3-5-7-9 hitters on DraftKings.

If we pay down at pitcher with Brubaker and Keller and continue to take some savings with a Brewers stack, then we should have enough money to roster a high-quality stack. Yankees anyone? Get Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Josh Donaldson who are batting 1-2-3 today for the Bronx Bombers. You should be able to get 5 at-bats from each of them and I can see a combined stat line of 8-13 at the plate with a couple of walks, 2-3 HRs, 7-8 RBIs, and 7-8 runs scored. Do the math and you are looking at nearly 100 fantasy points on FanDuel with just a 3-man stack. Cristian Javier is a big-time flyball pitcher with an insane FB/GB ratio of 3.12. It will be warm in New York today so go get yourself a Yankees stack!

Here are some sample lineups for the games that start at 1:05 PM ET.

 

DraftKings
P: JT Brubaker
P: B. Keller
C: V. Caratini
1B: A. Rizzo
2B: L Urias
3B: J. Donaldson
SS: W. Adames
OF: A. Judge
OF: A. McCutchen
OF: T. Taylor

FanDuel (very early)

P: JT Brubaker
C/1B: A. Rizzo
2B: G. Torres
3B: J. Donaldson
SS: T. Anderson
OF: A. Judge
OF: L. Robert
OF: AJ Pollock
UTIL: G. Sheets

FanDuel (early)

P: B. Keller
C/1B: P. Alonso
2B: K. Hiura
3B: L. Urias
SS: W. Adames
OF: S. Marte
OF: B. Nimmo
OF: A. McCutchen
UTIL: F. Lindor

Good luck today and enjoy some summer baseball!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Gus Elmashni

Gus Elmashni is a San Francisco Bay Area native and an avid fan of the NBA, NFL, and MLB. He has played fantasy sports since 1993 when a few high school friends and he would tabulate daily NBA results from the San Jose Mercury News and draft new teams every month. Gus has been with Pitcher List since April 2022 writing DFS articles and the Best Bets column. Additionally, Gus works full-time as an educator in Northern California and resides in Sacramento with his wife and two young children.

2 responses to “DFS Primer – June 25”

  1. Gus Elmashni says:

    I definitely did not see Javier and his bullpen throwing a no-hitter in Yankee Stadium. And I also did not see the A’s all of a sudden figuring out how to hit the ball. Don’t you love the variance with MLB DFS!

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