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Top SP: Corbin Burnes, MIL ($8,000 DK, $10,300 FD) vs KC
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why J.A. Happ is priced higher than Corbin Burnes on DraftKings. That just seems like a mistake. Now watch Happ throw a Maddux at Fenway. Anyway, Burnes has been phenomenal this season as he sports a 1.45 ERA and 1.40 FIP heading into tonight’s contest. He also has the highest K-BB rate on the board tonight at 28.2%. The visiting Royals have been a well-below average offense against RHP with a .306 team wOBA and 89 wRC+. Burnes didn’t clear five innings in his last outing against the Cardinals, but he did top the 100 pitch mark while getting ten strikeouts on hiw way to a 36% CSW. The Brewers are huge home favorites (-222) this evening
Honorable Mentions: Mike Clevinger, SD ($10,200 DK, $9,800 FD) at SEA.
Value SP: Andrew Heaney, LAA ($8,300 DK, $8,500 FD) vs TEX
The Rangers are an unspeakably poor offense right now. So far this year they’ve managed a .279 team wOBA and 64 wRC+ against enemy southpaws. Andrew Heaney has been very effective this year with a 18.8% K-BB rate and 2.93 FIP. And he pitched remarkably well at Coors in his last outing, going seven strong with eight Ks (27% CSW). Oddly enough, he’s had two sub-par outings against the Rangers this year, but it’s possible that’s just statistical noise. He projects really well tonight. The Angels are strong (-163) home favorites against Lance Lynn and the Rangers.
Honorable Mention: Kwang Hyun Kim STL ($7,300 DK, $8,300 FD) at PIT; Cristian Javier HOU ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD) vs ARI.
1B Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD) at COL
A lot like last night, it’s going to be awfully hard to get away from Dodger’s bats tonight as their implied team total currently sits well north of seven runs. Chi Chi González, tonight’s starter for the Rockies, had just a 16.5% K rate last season and has allowed a .388 wOBA against lefties the past two seasons. Cody Bellinger has been a disappointment overall this year, but this is just about as good of a spot as any for him to produce tonight. His teammate Corey Seager, who is sporting a .458 xwOBA this season, is another top play as is Mookie Betts, of course.
Honorable Mentions: Corey Seager, SS ($5,300 DK, $4,300 FD) at COL; Mookie Betts, OF ($6,100 DK, $4,800 FD) at COL; Ronald Acuña Jr./strong>, 3B ($5,900 DK, $4,300 FD) at NYM; Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($5,400 DK, $4,200 FD) at SEA.
2B Gavin Lux, LAD ($4,400 DK, $3,400 FD) at COL
Well, I did say it was going to be hard to get away from the Dodgers. Going by the projections over at FTN, Gavin Lux projects really well at second base tonight. The Dodger’s top prospect showed off some immense power for Triple-A Oklahoma City last year with a .327 ISO in 232 PA. At Coors against González seems like as good of a time as any to unleash it. Teammate Chris Taylor (.377 xwOBA this season) is another Dodger bat to keep an eye out on as he’s at a similarly reasonable price point.
If Lux isn’t in the Dodgers lineup tonight, Brad Miller is another possible play to consider at second. He’s been productive this season with a .417 xwOBA. He gets Mitch Keller, who has really struggled against lefties the past two seasons allowing a .428 wOBA to them.
Honorable Mentions: Marcell Ozuna, OF ($5,100 DK, $3,900 FD) at BAL; Luke Voit, 1B ($5,400 DK, $4,500 FD) at BOS, Max Muncy, 1B ($5,500 DK, $3,800 FD) at COL; Adam Duvall ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD) at NYM; Brad Miller 2B/SS ($4,200 DK, $3,000 FD) at PIT.
Value Batter: 1B Nate Lowe, TB ($2,800 DK, $2,900 FD) at BAL
We can look the Rays lineup for some value this evening as they’ll be facing Jorge Lopez at Camden Yards. Lopez has one of the lower K-BB rates on the board at 8%, with just a 7.3% swinging K rate so he’s not missing bats. And the past two seasons he’s been mauled by opposing lefties to the tune of a .401 wOBA. Nate Lowe fits the bill here. The Rays’ 2018 Minor League Player of the year has shown plus power with a .219 ISO for Triple-A Durham last season. His teammate, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, is the exact same price on both sites and is a viable option as well.
Honorable Mentions: Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF ($2,800 DK, $2,700 FD) at BAL; Randy Arozarena, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,700 FD) at BAL; Jedd Gyorko, 1B ($3,700 DK, $2,600 FD) vs KC; J.D. Davis, OF ($2,600 FD) vs ATL; Josh Rojas, 2B ($3,300 DK, $2,200 FD) at HOU; Daulton Varsho, C ($2,900 DK, $2,100 FD) at HOU; DJ Stewart, OF ($2,400 DK, $2,900 FD) vs TB.
Lineup Stack: Yankees at Red Sox (RHP Chris Mazza)
As mentioned earlier, the Dodgers are set up to score plenty of runs tonight at Coors Field. The Braves clubbed Steven Matz and the Mets last night and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if we saw a repeat against the rookie David Peterson (5.7% K-BB rate). But we’ll go to the Yankees at Fenway. Chris Mazza will return to the rotation tonight after appearing out of the bullpen a couple of nights ago so we can’t expect to see him too long. The rookie has put up a 5.57 ERA (5.97 xERA), 1.67 WHIP and a .378 xwOBA along with a modest 23.2% K rate across 21 innings this year. And behind Mazza lurks a Boston pen whose relievers have combined for a 5.93 ERA and 4.82 FIP. Note that after last night’s extra-inning marathon at least one of either Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge may be held out of tonight’s lineup. Regardless, this is a lineup that features tremendous power upside, the last series against the Blue Jays being case in point. On DraftKings, both Stanton and Gleyber Torres are favorably priced. The Yankees have the second-highest implied team total of the night at just under six runs.
Honorable Mentions: LAD at COL (González); ATL at NYM (Peterson); SD at SEA (Sheffield).
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