DFS Plays of the Day – September 18

Ryan Amore previews Saturday's DFS slate.

Happy Saturday! We’ve got an eight-game slate to look at tonight. Value bats seem tough to come by as there doesn’t seem to be too many favorable hitter match ups outside of the Astros and White Sox.

 

Top Tier Pitching

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-Tier/Value Pitching

 

* Indicates Triple-A stats this year. 

Lance Lynn seems like a value on DraftKings. Maybe that’s a product of throwing just 70 pitches his last time out so there is some workload uncertainty there as Tony La Russa and the White Sox try to keep everyone healthy for their playoff run. Even still, I think you have to consider Lynn as a strong play against an anemic Texas lineup (.291 team wOBA, last).

It’s the year 2021 and Adam Wainwright continues to dominate. His 2.88 ERA is tied for tenth among qualified starters and he’s also third in IP with 190.1. Tonight he’ll try and keep the pesky Padres off his lawn. His $8,400 salary on DraftKings seems very fair.

Alex Wood (not listed above) is making his return following an extended COVID-19 related absence so he’ll likely face some sort of restriction tonight, I think we’re safe looking elsewhere. It’s probably best to ignore him, but if you’re rolling out a whole bunch of tournament lineups and looking for a way to fit in some extra bats in one of them on DraftKings, Daulton Jefferies is a punt option. His strikeout ability seems really capped though and it’s just his first start since August 1st (73 pitches).

 

Bats and Stacks

 

 

  • HOU (5.4) vs ARI Humberto Castellanos (RHP) 7.9% K-BB, .319 xwOBA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.41 xERA: Against LHB this year he has allowed a .366 xwOBA and a 15.5% K rate- against RHB a .260 xwOBA and 17.9% K rate. Kyle Tucker (.404 xwOBA this year) and Yordan Alvarez (.384 xwOBA) stand out as the top lefties here.

 

  • CWS at TEX (5.2)  Spencer Howard (RHP) 12.3% K-BB, .306 xwOBA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.03 xERA: Howard threw 51 pitches in his last start getting just four outs against the Astros. Chances are we’ll be seeing a lot of the Texas pen tonight. As far as Howard goes, he’s shown some reverse splits this year. Against LHB he’s allowed a .274 xwOBA and 28.2% K rate, against RHB a .334 xwOBA and 20.2% K rate. Eloy Jiménez (.324 xwOBA) seems too cheap on DraftKings at $4,000. 

 

  • OAK (4.8) at LAA José Suarez (LHP) 12.9% K-BB%, .296 xwOBA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.75 xERA: Outside of the White Sox and Astros, there doesn’t seem to be a whole of bats that stand out. Suarez has been effective for the Angels but I think the Athletics are worth mentioning with an implied total just under five runs. Don’t ignore Matt Olson (.381 xwOBA) in tournaments as Suarez hasn’t been too tough on LHB this year with a .337 xwOBA allowed.
  • SEA (4.5) at KC Kris Bubic (LHP) 9.8% K-BB%, .354 xwOBA, 1.49 WHIP, 5.58 xERA: Bubic has had his struggles this year with walks so you could see him getting in some trouble. There’s some potential with the righty bats in Mitch Haniger (.348 xwOBA), Ty France (.337 xwOBA), and Abraham Toro (.329 xwOBA).

 

Value Bats

 

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

Account / Login
>