DFS Plays of the Day – September 18

Happy Saturday! We’ve got an eight-game slate to look at tonight. Value bats seem tough to come by as there doesn’t seem to be too many favorable hitter match ups outside of the Astros and White Sox.

Top Tier Pitching

	Opp	Salary DK/FD	ML	IP	K-BB%	CSW%	SwStr%	WHIP	ERA	xERA
Corbin Burnes	vs CHC	$10,500/ $11,200	-284	152	30.5%	34.1%	16.4%	0.91	2.25	1.90
Charlie Morton	at SF	$9,700/ $8,500	120	165	21%	31.2%	12.3%	1.05	3.49	3.31
Lance McCullers	vs ARI	$9,500/ $9,900	-283	144.1	16.2%	31.5%	11.8%	1.24	3.12	3.46
Yu Darvish	at STL	$9,100/ $9,100	107	150	23%	30.1%	12.3%	1.09	4.32	3.29
Aaron Nola	at NYM	$9,700/ $8,300	-116	163	24.7%	31.1%	12.9%	1.12	4.58	3.44

Showing 1 to 5 of 5 entries

Yu Darvish is just an enigma wrapped in a riddle at this point. Or maybe he’s just a box of chocolates. The Cardinals have been an offense that we’ve streamed against this year (.308 team wOBA, 19th) so it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him pitch well this year as we know the potential upside is there. He’s the definition of a boom/bust play at $9,100 on both sites. Lance McCullers was effective his last time out against the Angels throwing six innings allowing an earned run along with seven K’s (33.3% CSW).

He’s a massive home favorite today against the D-Backs (-283). Corbin Burnes is, of course, the top play on the board. And to make it even better he gets the Cubs. I think you can rationalize a potential fade of Burnes in tournaments knowing that the Brewers would at least like to try and curtail his workload as the season winds down, he threw 115 his last time out so from that standpoint it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them opt for a shorter outing tonight.

Aaron Nola had a phenomenal 41% CSW his last time out against the Rockies so we know the strikeout ceiling is there. He’s certainly playable on DraftKings at $9,700 but his salary stands out much more on FanDuel where he’s coming at an excellent discount relative to both Burnes and McCullers.

Mid-Tier/Value Pitching

	Opp	Salary DK/FD	ML	IP	K-BB%	CSW%	SwStr%	WHIP	ERA	xERA
Yusei Kikuchi	at KC	$7,000/ $8,700	-120	151	15.6%	29.2%	12.4%	1.27	4.23	5.02
Carlos Carrasco	vs PHI	$7,900/ $7,500	107	38.2	16.2%	26.1%	12.7%	1.29	5.59	4.14
Adam Wainwright	vs SD	$8,400/ $9,400	-116	190.1	15.9%	30.1%	8.4%	1.03	2.88	3.83
Lance Lynn	at TEX	$8,700/ $10,300	-216	140.2	20.7%	26%	11.9%	1.05	2.50	2.61
Daulton* Jefferies	at LAA	$5,500/ $5,500	-124	77.0	17.2%		9.4%	1.31	4.91

Showing 1 to 5 of 5 entries

* Indicates Triple-A stats this year.

Lance Lynn seems like a value on DraftKings. Maybe that’s a product of throwing just 70 pitches his last time out so there is some workload uncertainty there as Tony La Russa and the White Sox try to keep everyone healthy for their playoff run. Even still, I think you have to consider Lynn as a strong play against an anemic Texas lineup (.291 team wOBA, last).

It’s the year 2021 and Adam Wainwright continues to dominate. His 2.88 ERA is tied for tenth among qualified starters and he’s also third in IP with 190.1. Tonight he’ll try and keep the pesky Padres off his lawn. His $8,400 salary on DraftKings seems very fair.

Alex Wood (not listed above) is making his return following an extended COVID-19 related absence so he’ll likely face some sort of restriction tonight, I think we’re safe looking elsewhere. It’s probably best to ignore him, but if you’re rolling out a whole bunch of tournament lineups and looking for a way to fit in some extra bats in one of them on DraftKings, Daulton Jefferies is a punt option. His strikeout ability seems really capped though and it’s just his first start since August 1st (73 pitches).

Bats and Stacks

HOU (5.4) vs ARI Humberto Castellanos (RHP) 7.9% K-BB, .319 xwOBA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.41 xERA: Against LHB this year he has allowed a .366 xwOBA and a 15.5% K rate- against RHB a .260 xwOBA and 17.9% K rate. Kyle Tucker (.404 xwOBA this year) and Yordan Alvarez (.384 xwOBA) stand out as the top lefties here.

CWS at TEX (5.2) Spencer Howard (RHP) 12.3% K-BB, .306 xwOBA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.03 xERA: Howard threw 51 pitches in his last start getting just four outs against the Astros. Chances are we’ll be seeing a lot of the Texas pen tonight. As far as Howard goes, he’s shown some reverse splits this year. Against LHB he’s allowed a .274 xwOBA and 28.2% K rate, against RHB a .334 xwOBA and 20.2% K rate. Eloy Jiménez (.324 xwOBA) seems too cheap on DraftKings at $4,000.

OAK (4.8) at LAA José Suarez (LHP) 12.9% K-BB%, .296 xwOBA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.75 xERA: Outside of the White Sox and Astros, there doesn’t seem to be a whole of bats that stand out. Suarez has been effective for the Angels but I think the Athletics are worth mentioning with an implied total just under five runs. Don’t ignore Matt Olson (.381 xwOBA) in tournaments as Suarez hasn’t been too tough on LHB this year with a .337 xwOBA allowed.

SEA (4.5) at KC Kris Bubic (LHP) 9.8% K-BB%, .354 xwOBA, 1.49 WHIP, 5.58 xERA: Bubic has had his struggles this year with walks so you could see him getting in some trouble. There’s some potential with the righty bats in Mitch Haniger (.348 xwOBA), Ty France (.337 xwOBA), and Abraham Toro (.329 xwOBA).

Value Bats

	Position	Opp	DraftKings	FanDuel
Eloy Jiménez	OF	at TEX (Howard)	$4,000	$3,400
Ty France	1B/2B	at KC (Bubic)	$5,100	$2,700
Dylan Carlson	OF	vs SD (Darvish)	$2,700	$2,600
Darin Ruf	OF	vs ATL (Morton)	$3,700	$2,300
Abraham Toro	2B/3B	at KC (Bubic)	$4,900	$2,600
Jake Meyers	OF	vs ARI (Castellanos)	$3,000	$2,400
Brad Miller	1B	at NYM (Carrasco)	$3,600	$2,200

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

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DFS Plays of the Day – September 18

Ryan Amore

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