Saturday brings a ten-game slate headlined by Trevor Bauer at home against the Marlins and yet another ensuing slug fest at Coors Field.
Top SP: Ian Anderson ATL ($9,200 DK, $8,600 FD) at MIL
If you’re aiming for the highest floor its undoubtedly Trevor Bauer (28.9% K-BB%, 30.4% CSW 2020-21) who is at home against the Marlins.
But if you’re trying to jam in some higher priced bats, Ian Anderson (17.6% K-BB%, 29.5% CSW 2020-21) makes sense at a discount. He gets the Brewers who we’ve been targeting early on as they’ve struggled offensively this year with a 26.8% team K rate (4th highest) and .292 team wOBA (5th worst). The Braves are modest road favorites tonight (-115) with Vegas backing Ian over Brett in the much anticipated battle of the Andersons.
How can we not mention Carlos Rodón? He’s been fantastic with a 29.7% K-BB% on the year. However, at his price point, considering he’s coming back from an injury, albeit a minor one, I’d be more inclined to just spend up a little more to get Bauer. Or, oddly enough, spend down on Bauer if you’re on FanDuel.
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Bauer, LAD ($11,000 DK, $11,000 FD) vs MIA.
Value SP: Domingo Germán, NYY ($7,900 DK, $8,200 FD) at BAL
Domingo Germán (19.1% K-BB%, 29.5% CSW 2021) makes sense as a strong road favorite (-156) against a meek Orioles offense (.292 team wOBA, 6th worst). He’s been remarkably efficient too so far with just a 4.6% BB rate on the year.
He’s currently carrying a 20.8% BB rate on the year so, yes, Triston McKenzie (19.3% K-BB%, 28.1% CSW 2020-21) might not be the safest option on the board. But he also brings along a 32.1% K rate this year so he does have upside against the Mariners and their 26.3% team K rate (7th highest). Tonight’s game in Seattle is essentially a pick ‘em.
Honorable Mention: Triston McKenzie, CLE ($7,300 DK, $6,900 FD) at SEA.
OF Jesse Winker, CIN ($6,000 DK, $4,700 FD) at COL
After a seven year long odyssey with stops on seven different teams, Jhoulys Chacín is, at long last, right back where he started his professional career. That is to say back in Colorado after signing a minor league deal this past April. On DraftKings he costs less than his teammate C.J. Cron, who was placed on the IL five days ago, which kind of tells you, really, all you need to know. In all seriousness this is an eruption spot for the Reds offense. It feels strange targeting Jesse Winker at this price but I do think it’s warranted considering tonight’s context. Going back to 2019, Chacín has surrendered a .387 wOBA and .257 ISO to opposing LHB while striking them out at a 13.4% clip. And it’s at Coors field. Tyler Naquin is another potential lefty bat to consider here as well.
Honorable Mentions: Juan Soto, OF ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD) at ARI; Nick Castellanos, OF ($6,300 DK, $4,500 FD) at COL; Rhys Hoskins, 1B ($4,700 DK, $3,300 FD) at TOR.
2B/SS Jean Segura, PHI ($4,700 DK, $2,800 FD) at TOR
Considering second base, Nick Senzel, would be the clear top play provided he returns tonight from a heel injury as he’s been hitting leadoff for the Reds. Another option though is Jean Segura who has found himself hitting second of late in front of Bryce Harper. Not a bad place to hit at all. The Phillies are in an interesting spot tonight as they’ll face the young lefty Anthony Kay who hasn’t been too impressive with just a 10.6% K-BB% across his career (44.2 IP). The Blue Jay’s temporary abode down in Dunedin has shown to be a favorable venue for offense.
Honorable Mentions: Nick Senzel, 2B/OF ($4,400 DK, $3,500 FD) at COL; Ozzie Albies, 2B ($4,900 DK, $3,100 FD) at MIL; Ryan McMahon, 2B/3B ($5,100 DK, $3,500 FD) vs CIN; Gio Urshela, 3B/SS ($4,600 DK, $2,600 FD) at BAL.
Value Batter: OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA ($2,000 DK, $2,100 FD) vs CLE
There looks to be two very strong values on both sites. Unfortunately, though, they are both in the Outfield. Hopefully you doubled down last night on Jarred Kelenic after his quiet debut. He’s still the absolute minimum on DraftKings. I don’t necessarily want to pick on Triston McKenzie as I do think he will eventually come around but even so he’s been vulnerable early on and the opportunity cost is so low though that you almost have to play Kelenic at least for the block in small field formats.
The other value is Andrew Vaughn, who after a slow start coupled with oddly sporadic playing time, has come alive of late. Not surprising at all considering his pedigree. The South Siders get a decent matchup against Mike Minor who carries a 5.75 ERA and 1.41 WHIP into tonight’s contest. The White Sox have one of the better implied totals of the evening at 4.7 runs making them a team to target tonight for offense. Now seems like the time to jump on the talented rookie while his price remains near the minimum.
Honorable Mentions: Andrew Vaughn, OF ($2,300 DK, $2,400 FD) vs KC; Kyle Tucker, OF ($3,200 DK, $3,300 FD) vs TEX, Connor Joe, 1B ($2,500 DK, $2,500 FD) vs CIN; Josh Bell, 1B ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD) at ARI; Kyle Schwarber, OF ($3,600 DK, $3,200 FD) at ARI, Starlin Castro, 3B ($3,100 DK, $2,700 FD) at ARI; Tommy Pham, OF ($3,200 DK, $2,200 FD) vs STL; Josh Harrison, 2B/3B ($3,300 DK, $2,900 FD) at ARI; Alec Bohm, 3B ($3,200 DK, $2,400 FD) at TOR.
Top Stack: WAS at ARI (RHP Seth Frankoff)
The Reds, as mentioned earlier, are the clear top option on the road at Colorado and, yes, there’s also the Yankees at Camden Yards, but for fun let’s look elsewhere. After scoring a whopping seventeen runs last night off of Riley Smith and company last night in Arizona, it feels a little like chasing here with the Nationals again. Regardless, I think it’s justified considering the Nationals find themselves with another highly susceptible pitcher in their cross hairs. Tonight they’ll face the 32-year-old righty Seth Frankoff, who prior to a brief stint with the Mariners last season, spent two years in the KBO. Trea Turner and Juan Soto are the two clear spend up options at the top. As far as the rest of the lineup goes, there’s some reasonably decent values to consider. Kyle Schwarber (.342 career wOBA) and Josh Bell (.339 career wOBA) carry the most power upside. While you can target Josh Harrison (.346 wOBA this year, .312 career wOBA) and Starlin Castro (.316 career wOBA) across the infield as needed.
Honorable Mentions: CIN at COL (Chacín); NYY at BAL (López); HOU vs TEX (Dunning); PHI at TOR (Kay).
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