Saturday brings us a six-game slate featuring another game at Coors Field and what looks to be a fantastic pitcher’s duel in San Diego.
Top SP: Kevin Gausman SF ($8,900 DK, $11,200 FD) vs. CHC
The only thing holding back my unrequited love for Jacob deGrom is his pitch count. In two starts since returning from the IL, the Mets have held him to just 63 and 70 pitches. No one can match his upside, we know that, but the pitch count does throw a wrinkle into the mix tonight. In which case I’m a fan of the discount we’re getting on DraftKings with Kevin Gausman (24.9% K-BB%, 32.5% CSW 2021).
The former Oriole has been dominant all year and is coming off a strong start against the Dodgers his last time out recording seven K’s through six innings backed by a sensational 43.1% CSW. Also in his favor, the Giants are the biggest favorites on the board tonight (-176). On FanDuel, both Gausman and deGrom are just about the same salary, making deGrom the clear play.
Joe Musgrove, similar to Gausman, has been nothing short of brilliant with a 2.08 ERA and 0.76 WHIP backed by a 28.4% K-BB% and 33.1% CSW. The Mets meanwhile, are still dealing with a lineup that’s less than full strength and on the year their team wOBA stands at just .297 (23rd). Musgrove looks like an exceptional value on FanDuel, where he’s priced at just $8,300.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Musgrove, SD ($8,700 DK, $8,300 FD) vs NYM, Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,100 DK, $11,500 FD) at SD.
Value SP: Alex Cobb, LAA ($6,900 DK, $8,500 FD) vs SEA
Alex Cobb has pitched reasonably well overall this year with what would be a career-best 21.7% K-BB% through his first seven starts. Cobb’s splitter, or “the thing” as you might recall from his days with the Rays, has been effective this year returning a 36.3% whiff rate along with a 46.2% chase rate. He’s really leaned into it too this year throwing it at a career-high 42% rate. It’s certainly a volatile approach but considering the opponent tonight, the Mariners, who own baseball’s lowest team wOBA at .286 I think we might be able to get by with Cobb as our low-tier stream. He should be fairly popular, on DraftKings at least, considering the fact that he’s a reasonable home favorite (-135) against a weak opponent. Something to keep in mind for tournaments.
Charlie Morton (18.9% K-BB%, 30.7% CSW 2021) is not getting much respect as a home dog with the visiting, led by Clayton Kershaw, installed as the favorites (-133) tonight. It’s not an easy spot by any means but we’ve seen Morton overcome difficult matchups already this year, notably a nine strikeout performance at Fenway Park a couple of starts ago. He’s definitely on the board as an SP 2 option, even more so if Max Muncy is forced to sit after sustaining an ankle injury last night.
I feel as if I mention Jameson Taillon every night he pitches and here we go again. He’s got an ugly 5.10 ERA heading into tonight’s contest but I do feel he deserves better than that as he does have a strong 19.7% K-BB% and 3.82 xERA. Regardless, given that the strikeouts have evaporated a bit in his past three starts it’s hard to have much excitement for him tonight considering the opponent, an excellent Red Sox offense.
Opposing Taillon will be the lefty Eduardo Rodríguez (19.8% K-BB%, 28.1% CSW 2021), who is coming off of three straight duds. Two of them, however, were against really tough opponents in Houston, who dismantled Hyun-Jin Ryu last night, and the Blue Jays. Rodríguez is one of the more volatile pitchers in baseball, when his changeup is working he is capable of putting up some excellent lines, and as we’ve seen lately the bust potential is there too. But I’d have some interest in him if you’re multi-entering tournaments on DraftKings as a boom/bust SP2 considering how anemic this Yankee offense has been of late.
Honorable Mention: Charlie Morton, ATL ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD) vs LAD; Eduardo Rodríguez, BOS ($6,600 DK, $6,800 FD) at NYY.
OF Mark Canha, OAK ($4,500 DK, $4,200 FD) at COL
After last night’s performance, Mark Canha should be massively popular. In addition to being an accomplished hitter in his own right with a .343 career wOBA, he’ll be hitting leadoff and hold the platoon advantage against the lefty Kyle Freeland. This one is pretty simple.
Rafael Devers should once again be on the radar tonight too considering that Taillon has allowed a .388 wOBA and .273 ISO to LHB this year.
Honorable Mentions: C.J. Cron, 1B ($4,400 DK, $3,700 FD) vs OAK; Rafael Devers, 3B ($4,500 DK, $3,500 FD) at NYY.
OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4,100 DK, $3,500 FD) vs BOS
As mentioned earlier, Rodríguez certainly has the ability to pitch really well. Regardless, Stanton’s career .417 wOBA makes him an excellent one-off considering that his salary has dropped a bit following a quiet stretch.
Honorable Mentions: Matt Chapman, 3B ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD) at COL; Sean Murphy, C ($4,300 DK, $3,000 FD) at COL; Aaron Judge, OF ($5,000 DK, $3,600 FD) vs BOS.
Value Batter: 2B Jed Lowrie, OAK ($3,900 DK, $3,600 FD) at COL
All eyes will be on the Oakland Athletics tonight as they continue their field trip to the fantasy playground that is Coors Field with the lefty Kyle Freeland on tap. Likely hitting out of the three-hole, we’re getting Jed Lowrie on the right side of his splits as the switch hitter has been slightly better against lefties for his career with a .333 wOBA as opposed to .323 against righties. Chad Pinder is another potential value play to keep an eye on here as a righty bat who has shown some decent power with a career .187 ISO. Stephen Piscotty is also just $2,000 on DraftKings, making him an exceptional value if he returns to the lineup tonight.
As we talked about earlier, the Yankees have really been an anemic offense this year, at least relative to their standards, with a .304 team wOBA, tied with the Rockies for 19th. They get what looks like a boom/bust sort of draw with Rodríguez. Some of the names here are priced down to the point where there could be some interest in tournaments with the likes of D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela.
Honorable Mentions: Chad Pinder, 2B/OF ($3,700 DK, $3,400 FD) at COL; Gio Urshela, 3B ($3,300 DK, $2,500 FD) vs BOS; Brandon Crawford, SS ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD) vs CHC; D.J. LeMahieu, 1B/3B ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) vs. BOS; Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS ($3,500 DK, $2,500 FD) vs OAK; Gavin Lux, 2B/SS ($3,700 DK, $2,900 FD) at ATL; Gleyber Torres, SS ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD) vs BOS.
Top Stack: OAK at COL (LHP Freeland)
No surprise here as the Athletics lead the slate with an implied run total of just under six runs. Going back to 2019, Freeland has allowed a .364 wOBA and 221 ISO to opposing RHB to go along with just a 14.2% K rate. So, the righties will get priority here. Regardless, I’d have no problem getting to Matt Olson if you can afford to do so. If not, don’t forget about C.J. Cron on the opposite side of this game, as he’ll hold the platoon advantage against the lefty Cole Irvin. As mentioned, Canha is an excellent option at the top with his .390 OBP on the year. Sean Murphy (career .340 wOBA) has always shown tremendous power and provides upside at a thin catcher position. Matt Chapman (career .347 wOBA) has been awful this year with just a .293 wOBA, still, there’s no denying his power upside especially considering the context. Chad Pinder is an interesting name, especially for tournaments. It seems like he’s really been selling out for power this year as his K rate has spiked all the way up to 34.3%, but he’s making some loud contact evidence being a .351 xwOBA and 20% barrel rate in an all too brief 40 batted ball sample. Stephen Piscotty (career .330 wOBA) is a DraftKings special at just $2,000 and would be an easy way to make everything fit if he’s in there tonight.
Honorable Mentions: NYY vs BOS (Rodríguez); COL vs OAK (Irvin); BOS at NYY (Taillon).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)