DFS Plays of the Day – June 27

Previewing Monday's DFS slate.

For bats, tonight’s nine-game slate is highlighted by the Dodgers’ trip to Coors Field. Kevin Gausman leads the slate’s pitching options as the Jays host the Red Sox. On DraftKings, the mid-tier is led by George Kirby who will face the Orioles at home.

 

Top Tier Pitching

 

Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.

 

Kevin Gausman: ($9,800  DK, $9,500 FD): @ CWS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 107 pitches.

Gausman’s fastball velocity averaged 96.5 MPH and his splitter returned a 41.7% CSW% in his last start, helping to alleviate potential concerns after he had posted a couple of duds against the Twins and the Orioles in two of his previous three turns. The Red Sox aren’t a great matchup (.324 team wOBA, fifth-best) but he’s excelled against them already this year and his K-BB% of 22.2% is the best of the night making him the top option.

Pablo López: ($9,100 DK, $10,000 FD): vs COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 107 pitches.

Given that he’s a road underdog against a tough Cardinals lineup (.311 team wOBA, eleventh best), López might be overlooked tonight. A couple of less than impressive recent outings against the Mets and Astros might also help to further deflate his roster %. But he still boasts some of the strongest skills across the board making him a very interesting option for tournaments, especially on FanDuel where his salary should guarantee a low roster %.

Martín Pérez: ($8,900 DK, $9,700 FD): vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 98 pitches.

As much as I want to completely ignore him given his track record (career 4.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP), the man keeps cranking out good starts. He’s been locating really well so far, but when that regresses, he won’t have the strikeouts to make up for it. I’d need more of a discount to consider him; just $200 less than López or $900 less than Gausman on DK is not enough considering the gap in strikeout ability. Going lower in salary, I’d be more inclined to go with either Jordan Montgomery or George Kirby. Now here comes the CGSO from Pérez.

 

Mid-tier/Value Pitching

 

 

 

George Kirby: ($7,100 DK, $9,000 FD): @ OAK (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.

Kirby has impressed through his first nine starts and is third on the slate with a 20.3% K-BB%. He probably ends up as one of if not the most popular SP 2 on DK across all formats given that he’s a strong home favorite (-162), who looks especially underpriced considering that he’s already excelled in this matchup once before as he piled up 29.9 DK points against the Orioles at Camden Yards back on May 31st. Pairing Kirby and Montgomery on DK allows you some flexibility with bats.

Jordan Montgomery: ($8,000 DK, $9,200 FD): @ TB (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.

The Yankees are the night’s largest favorites as they start their three-game series against the A’s. I’ve always been a fan of Montgomery so I’m biased but I’ll admit he hasn’t flashed the strikeout ability that I hoped he would as his K rate is at just 18.5% this year. Still, this is all about the matchup as the A’s boast the worst team wOBA in baseball at an abominable .268. Note: DK is listing JP Sears as a potential starter for tonight’s game, if he does get the nod instead of Montgomery, he’s an interesting, but risky punt SP 2 at $5,500.

Adam Wainwright: ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD): @ MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 101 pitches.

Noah Syndergaard ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD): vs KC (L) – 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.

Syndergaard and Wainwright are modest home favorites who bring limited strikeout upside. Neither stands out, especially with Kirby ($7,100) and Montgomery ($8,000) on DK. If choosing between the two, I’d lean toward Wainwright given that the Marlins have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate at just over three and a half runs. Waino also has a slightly higher K rate at 19.3% as opposed to Thor’s 16.3%.

Kris Bubic ($6,100 DK, $6,300 FD): @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.

Bubic’s numbers as a whole are dreadful. But, his last start against the Angels might make him a little interesting in DK tournaments as an SP 2 if you’re multi-entering. The Rangers have been below-average offensively with a .301 team wOBA, 23rd.

Sonny Gray ($8,500 DK, $8,300 FD): vs CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.

Lucas Giolito ($8,300 DK, $8,000 FD): vs TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.

Gray and Giolito are two names to keep an eye on moving forward. As far as tonight goes, neither seems like a decent gamble. In the case of Gray, his overall numbers are strong but he threw just 85 pitches his last time out as he works his way back from a pectoral injury. He gets the Guardians again who have the lowest team K rate in baseball at 18.5%.

Giolito’s struggles are well documented and he recently admitted going through some woes with his mechanics. Considering that, it’s probably best to ignore him. But at his salary, there is upside to be had if everything were to suddenly click. Of the two, I’m a little interested in Giolito in tournaments as the Angels do have the highest team K rate in baseball at 25.5%. Alternatively, Mike Trout and/or Shohei Ohtani are high-priced bats that shouldn’t be too popular in tournaments if you’d rather roll the dice on Giolito’s struggles continuing.

 

Bats and Stacks

 

  • LAD (7.0 implied run total) at COL Chad Kuhl (RHP) 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP: The Dodgers begin their series at Coors Field tonight and are the clear top stack. Kuhl has been noticeably worse against LHB for his career, so expect to see a ton of Freddie Freeman. Gavin Lux has had a low-key breakout this year (career-best .330 wOBA) stuck in the bottom of the Dodger order and he’s a very reasonably priced option at 2B. Considering the spot, there is still some value in Max Muncy’s salary on FanDuel ($3,300). On the other side, Tyler Anderson (3.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) should keep the Rockies roster rate down a tick at least, so there could be some potential leverage to be had. The Dodger pen is also not quite as strong as it once was.
  • TOR (5.3 implied run total) vs BOS Connor Seabold (RHP): He’s making his debut tonight and has impressed with a 2.09 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 11 starts with the Woo Sox, but it’s not hard to imagine the Jays’ offense erupting on an unproven pitcher with a shaky pen behind him.

 

  • NYY (5.6 implied run total) vs OAK Paul Blackburn (RHP)  2.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP: To his credit, Blackburn has been very good, and he still has great ratios despite being bit by the regression beast in his last start against the Mariners. But the Yankees have hit the most home runs in baseball and could easily tilt the slate against a pitcher who has little margin for error (17.6% K rate) backed by a suspect pen. Josh Donaldson is a potential value at 3B. Joey Gallo is very cheap and is a boom/bust punt for tournaments.
  • PIT (4.5 implied run total) at WSN Erick Fedde (RHP) 4.46 ERA, 1.47 WHIP: This is an interesting game for tournaments that could see runs on both sides. The Pirates have yet to announce an official starter. Sidenote, the Juan Soto breakout game has to happen at some point, right? Anyways, the Pirates will face Fedde, who has a career 5.11 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 396.0 IP with one of the worst pens in baseball behind him. Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski are still reasonably priced if you’re searching for value bats with upside.

 

Honorable Mentions: COL vs LAD (LHP Anderson), WSN vs PIT (TBD), TEX  at KC (Bubic)

 

Value Bats

 

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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