FanDuel has opted to include the 3:10 PM (EST) Coor’s Field game in their main slate, but I’m going to mostly focus on the eight-game DraftKings slate. On FanDuel, you might get a little bit of a discount in roster percentage for the Coor’s Field game if starting lineups get announced close to lock considering it’s the late afternoon game.
Top Tier Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.
Luis Severino: ($ 10,300 DK, $10,000 FD): vs CHC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 103 pitches.
Sandy Alcantara: ($ 10,500 DK, $10,900 FD): @ PHI (ND) – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 113 pitches.
After his last scheduled start against the Rays was pushed back due to an illness, Severino will get the Jays today. In his last start against the Cubs, he averaged 96 MPH with his heater while his slider returned a CSW% of 51.9%. That’s what we love to see! It’s a difficult matchup against the Jays (.327 team wOBA, fourth-best in baseball), but Severino absolutely deserves consideration given his 22.8% K-BB% leads all starters today.
Oddly enough, both Sandy Alcantara and Severino have identical xERA’s of 2.55 heading into today. It’s a difficult call between the two but I’d lean with Alcantara given that the Mets have a little bit lower of an implied team total of 3.8 runs as opposed to the Jays, who are just over four runs.
Nick Pivetta: ($9,600 DK, $9,400 FD): vs OAK (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Pivetta is the one who looks overpriced the most given his xERA of 4.24 is closer to Dane Dunning’s mark of 4.07. Pivetta is a decent favorite at home against the Cards but this just feels a little like Martín Pérez, doesn’t it? Two pitchers who have been around a long time and just seem like they are early-season overachievers given their career numbers. Pivetta has a career ERA of 4.97 and WHIP of 1.36. On DK, I’d be looking to either go down to Bassitt for $700 less or up with Alcantara or Severino.
Mid-tier Pitching
Chris Bassitt: ($8,900 DK, $9,300 FD): vs MIL (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 109 pitches.
The Hound looked really good in his last start against the Brewers. He’s an all-format type of play who is always a candidate to pitch deep into games and has some added strikeout upside today against the Marlins, who are tied with the Brewers for the sixth-highest K rate in baseball at 23.9%.
Corey Kluber ($8,100 DK, $9,100 FD): @ NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
Kluber is coming off a good start against his former team and he also reached a season-high of 93 pitches. He’s a decent favorite on the road in Camden Yards. His K rate is a career-low 21.3%, but he’s been great with limiting walks so there’s a path for him being a decent option today. Still, I’d probably try to find a way to spend a little more to get to either Bassitt or Cobb, as they have more K upside at this point.
Alex Cobb ($8,500 DK, $7,600 FD): @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 87 pitches.
Alex Cobb should have better days ahead considering his xERA of 2.06. His wOBA allowed of .334 is backed by a much stronger xwOBA of .240. It just seems like he’s been terribly unlucky to hold an ERA of 5.74. The Pirates could be a nice way for him to start his rebound tour. However, he is coming off the IL which always makes me at least a little hesitant. Because of that, I’d lean towards Bassitt for a few hundred more on DK.
Dane Dunning: ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD): vs HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
Dunning isn’t terribly exciting, but he’s reasonably priced as a potential SP 2 with a matchup against the Tigers who are tied with the A’s for the worst team wOBA in baseball at .268.
Ian Anderson: ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD): @ WSH (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
Anderson is there mostly because he’s a decent favorite against just about an average hitting Cubs team (.313 team wOBA, 13th). But he’s allowed a ton of baserunners and for the most part, hasn’t shown the strikeout upside to make up for it. If anything, some Cubs hitters might be interesting in tournaments as they should be overlooked.
Bats and Stacks
- MIL (5.2 implied run total) at CIN Mike Minor (LHP) 11.9 K-BB%, 7.36 ERA, 1.50 WHIP: The Brewers get a bump up as they finish their series at the Great American Ball Park. Tyrone Taylor, Hunter Renfroe, and Andrew McCutchen are all priced affordably on DK and have the platoon advantage against the lefty Minor who hasn’t looked great in his return. McCutchen has a career .401 wOBA against southpaws. On the other side, Adrian Houser has been a little more vulnerable to lefties which makes Joey Votto a potential one-off.
- TEX (4.5 implied run total) at DET Drew Hutchison (RHP) 2.2% K-BB%, 4.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP: Before last year’s 21.1 IP, Hutchison hadn’t been in the majors since 2018. He has a career 4.95 ERA and 1.41 WHIP across 501.1 IP. Splits-wise, he’s been even for his career with a .340 wOBA allowed to both sides. In 19.2 IP this year, he’s allowed a 15.4% BB rate so the Rangers bats could make some noise today. Nathaniel Lowe is a potential punt play at 1B. Kole Calhoun is a punt on FanDuel.
- ATL (4.8 implied run total) vs CHC Kyle Hendricks (RHP): 8.9% K-BB%, 4.95 ERA, 1.30 WHIP: A powerful offense against a not-so-great pitcher. The Cubs bullpen has been a wreck too. Hendricks has really been torched by lefties this year with a .393 wOBA allowed. Matt Olson seems too cheap at $4,000 on DraftKings. For tournaments, Michael Harris II is interesting hitting ninth. Plus, he’s been really fun to watch, hasn’t he? Orlando Arcia has a .424 xwOBA in a very small sample size and is another potential punt if you’re looking to be creative in tournaments.
- Honorable Mentions: BOS vs STL (Pallante), NYY at TOR (Kikuchi), Coors Field (FD only)
Value Bats
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)