Monday’s ten-game slate features what should be a great pitcher’s duel in Philly between Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara. The Blue Jays look poised to be one of the more popular stacks of the night as they’ll take on a struggling young pitcher in Kyle Bradish.
Top Tier Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.
Aaron Nola: ($ 10,100 DK, $10,200 FD): @ MIL (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
Sandy Alcantara: ($ 10,200 DK, $11,300 FD): vs WSH (ND) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 105 pitches.
This should be a really fun game to watch. Using Vegas as the tie-breaker points us to Nola as the home favorite against a weaker Marlins lineup. But you’ll get no argument from me if you side with Alcantara who is coming off a CGSO.
Alek Manoah: ($9,800 DK, $10,800 FD): @ KC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
Cristian Javier: ($9,600 DK, $8,800 FD): vs SEA (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 90 pitches.
At this price point on DraftKings, Manoah seems to be the easy call as the slate’s largest favorite (-310) against a weak offense like the Orioles (.300 wOBA, tied-23rd in baseball). Considering his volatility, Javier is a potential pivot for tournaments, probably more so on FanDuel where you’re getting him at a substantial discount. He’s on the road taking on Texas who are actually tied with the Orioles with a .300 team wOBA so far this year.
Alex Wood: ($8,300 DK, $8,600 FD): vs COL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 101 pitches.
Yu Darvish: ($8,400 DK, $ 9,700 FD): vs NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 100 pitches.
Merrill Kelly: ($7,900 DK, $9,100 FD): @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Kelly is a solid favorite tonight in his re-match against the Reds, but I would lean more towards paying a little extra for Alex Wood considering he looks to have turned the corner in his last start against the Rockies. He’ll get the advantage of hosting the Royals (.298 team wOBA, tied-24th in baseball) at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.
Darvish looked fantastic in his last start against the Mets, but he’s a box of chocolates with the label missing in that you really never know what you’re going to get. But he is coming at a decent discount on DraftKings (he cost $8,900 in his last start) which makes him a strong play to consider even with his volatility.
Zack Thompson: ($4,300 DK, $6,200 FD)
In ten starts with Triple-A Memphis, the left-hander showed off a 30.1% K rate. He carries risk as a rookie making his first start, but he could easily pay off his low salary.
Ian Anderson: ($7,700 DK, $8,900 FD): vs OAK (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
Anderson has been mostly disappointing this year, but he’s shown strikeout upside and is a sizable favorite tonight (-159) which makes him an option to consider if you’re multi-entering.
Lance Lynn: ($5,500 FD)
He’s making his return tonight against the Tigers. He’s an easy fade on DK at $9,600 in his first start back, but FanDuel is where he’s interesting. I tend to take a wait-and-see approach with pitchers returning from an extended absence, but the $5,500 tag on FD is hard to ignore making him a risk/reward play.
Bats and Stacks
- TOR (5.5 implied run total) at BAL Kyle Bradish (RHP) 14.4 K-BB%, 6.45 ERA, 1.59 WHIP: The Blue Jays have the top implied run total which should lead them to being the chalk team of the night. Bradish has a reasonable K rate of 24.5% but has allowed a .487 wOBA to RHB this year, which does not bode well heading into a battle with the Jays and their right-heavy lineup.
- STL (5.3 implied run total) vs PIT Mitch Keller (RHP) 9.9% K-BB%, 5.26 ERA, 1.49 WHIP: For his career (220 IP), Keller has allowed a .378 wOBA to LHB and a .355 wOBA to RHB. He’s allowed for too many baserunners along with a K rate below 20% so fire away with Cardinals in all formats. The high-priced Blue Jay bats should be very popular so that might keep the roster % for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado suppressed a little. Tyler O’Neill has plenty of upside on DraftKings at $3,300. Nolan Gorman showed off a .368 ISO with Triple-A Memphis this year so he offers power upside at 2B. Yuan Yepez (.325 xwOBA) and Brendan Donovan (.354 xwOBA) are potential values too.
- ARI (4.8 implied run total) vs CIN Mike Minor (LHP) 13.2 % K-BB%, 8.64 ERA, 1.44WHIP: Minor has made two starts this year and has already coughed up five dingers. There’s a bad Reds pen lurking here too which makes the D-Backs a team worth choosing from. Ketel Marte is always one of my favorite plays when he gets to hit right-handed. Christian Walker looks too cheap at $3,600 on DraftKings considering his .406 xwOBA and 16% barrel rate this season.
- ATL (5.3 implied run total) at WSN Josiah Gray (RHP) 15.0% K-BB%, 4.33 ERA, 1.32 WHIP: The former Dodger prospect has shown flashes but has also been erratic with his control and command; 10.9% BB rate and a 13.5% barrel rate allowed this year. Atlanta could certainly break the slate with their lineup.
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