Welcome back to DFS plays of the day, Friday edition. We have a 15-game slate tonight, that means everyone’s favorite team is playing! First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET in Philadelphia while we have four games out west that includes a rivalry game between the Dodgers and Giants.
The Angels ended their 14-game losing streak last night. The Braves and Blue Jays are turning into the teams we thought they’d be and the Pirates, Tigers, and A’s here still bad. We have three games with totals of nine or higher and three teams with implied run totals above five. With so many games tonight we ownership should be pretty spread out especially on DraftKings.
It’s important to have a process when playing DFS so I’ll share a few things I do every time I build a lineup.
Selecting a Pitcher
- To get a lot of fantasy points a pitcher needs to rack up the Ks. I look at a pitcher’s K% and the team K% of their opponent.
- Take a look at the lineup for the opposing team. Are all the regulars starting? How many L vs. R are there?
- Where is the game? Coors Field, Fenway Park, and Great American Ballpark are places to try and avoid.
- Look at the implied run totals for teams. Selecting hitters from teams with high IRTs is a good start.
- Look at the opposing pitcher’s stats. What is their weakness? LHH or RHH?
- Where in the lineup are they hitting? Finding cheap pieces batting near the top of the order is idea.
- Provides the best chance to win GPP tournaments
- 5-3 for DraftKings and 4-4 or 4-3-1 for FanDuel
- Diversify your stacks. Don’t always go for 1-4 in the batting order. Mix it up with the bottom of the lineup.
Ok, now that you know where to start, let’s get to my favorite plays and stacks so YOU can finish in the green with ME.
Timmy’s Top 3 SP
Some other arms I might have some shares of are Aaron Ashby against Washington and Severino vs Chicago. Ashby is not a top choice for me because Washington has the lowest K% vs. LHP in the majors. However, if Nelson Cruz sits again I might up my shares of Ashby. Severino has been pitching well and the Cubs really inconsistent, I like Severino tonight but his price tag may be a bit much to swallow on FanDuel. Ok, let’s dive into the top three!
Joe Musgrove, SP, SD
Musgrove is 6-0 and has elite numbers in ERA and WHIP to go along with a 32.5% CSW. The Rockies are coming to town tonight as the third worst road team in the majors. A 80 wRC+ and a .109 ISO rank 28th in the majors. Brendan Rodgers and Charlie Blackmon are hitting the ball well, both over .300 in the past two weeks but their lack of power doesn’t scare me to use a top pitcher against this Rockies team.
Triston McKenzie, SP, CLE
McKenzie is priced slightly below the top tier tonight but in my mind he should be in the top tier. His swing and miss numbers are not great this season but in four of his last seven starts he’s given up 2 ER or less. Oakland has a .266 wOBA on the season, worst in the majors and over the past two weeks sports a .089 ISO also worst int he majors. I think McKenzie hits his ceiling tonight and goes for 7 innings and 8 strikeouts.
José Berríos, SP, TOR
Berrios who’s numbers on paper are atrocious supporting a 18% K rate, lowest of his career. However, Berrios has good stuff and has show it to us plenty of times in the past. In his last start vs the Twins he had 13 strikeouts with a season high 21% SwSt rate. Berrios gets the Detroit Tigers today who are in the running for worst offense in the majors. The Tigers have a 75 wRC+ on the season. Yes, that is worst in the majors. The above mentioned McKenzie shut down the tigers in his last start and had 8 strikeouts. Toronto is heavy favorites in this one and those extra points for the W should be available for Berrios tonight.
Kansas City Royals vs. Bruce Zimmerman
The Royals bats are coming around and after his hot start Bruce Zimmerman is headed in the opposite direction. Kansas City has been bad this season but tonight they get a great matchup. Over the past two weeks Carlos Santana, MJ Melendez, and Bobby Witt Jr all have a wRC+ above 120. The Royals put up 7 runs last night and are in position to put up a similar numbers tonight vs Bruce Zimmerman and his 32.2% hard contact rate. These guys are cheap and can be stacked with more expensive teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays.
The Yankees need no introduction as they have had the best offense all season. Aaron Judge leads the majors in homers with 22 and the Yankees crush LHP. They have six starters with an ISO over .152 and on top of that, Mr. Irrelevant Aaron Hicks is on fire the past four games. It’s all coming together and Wade Miley with his 11% BB rate will be in big trouble if he lets men on base.
Elvin Rodriguez has a 10.19 ERA and a 32% Hard Contact rate in just 16 innings this season. He’s throwing for the Tigers because E-Rod is still on the shelf and they have no one else who’s ready for the big stage at the moment. Unfortunately for Elvin, Toronto has hit it’s groove over the past two weeks scoring 82 runs and hitting .310, both best in the majors. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.is cheap and we may get a min priced top prospect Gabriel Moreno in the lineup today who just got called up. Pair those two with Vlad, Bichette, and Springer or Hernandez and you got yourself a nice five-man stack.
Here are some of the best value bats for tonight. If you see a guy on this list, it’s safe to play other players from their team. We will see some value pop up once lineups are announced so use this as a reference and pay attention to the news, as there are always one or two guys batting at the top of a lineup that are not there on the regular.
Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend!
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