DFS Plays of the Day – July 4

Previewing the Fourth of July DFS slate.

Happy Fourth of July! Tonight’s seven-game main slate begins at 6:40 EST on DraftKings and includes the second leg of the Cleveland/Detroit doubleheader. DK rosters will likely be dominated by Alek Manoah facing the Oakland A’s and a too cheap Julio Urías with the Dodgers hosting the Rockies. FanDuel has omitted the Cleveland/Detroit game as their slate begins 30 minutes earlier with the D-Backs/Giants at 7:10 PM EST.

 

Top Tier Pitching 

Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.

Alek Manoah: ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD): vs BOS (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.

Sean Manaea: ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD): @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 112 pitches.

Kyle Wright: ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD): @ PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 98 pitches.

Carlos Rodón: ($10,900 FD): vs DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.

We know the A’s are dreadful (.267 team wOBA, worst in baseball) so Manoah has, by far, the easiest matchup of the three top options and should be the most popular of the top options across both sites. The presence of Rodón on FanDuel creates an interesting alternative for tournaments; the D-Backs have the seventh-highest team K rate at 23.5% while also having the fifth-lowest team wOBA at .298. Between Wright and Manaea, the edge goes to the latter given that the Mariners have the significantly lower team total of 3.5 runs.

 

 

Mid-tier Pitching

 

 

Julio Urías: ($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD): @ COL (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.

Coming off a fairly decent outing at Coors Field, it’s a little strange to see Urías’ price go down now that he’s facing the Rockies at home as the biggest favorite of the night. The Rockies have the sixth-worst team wOBA at .283. On DraftKings, he deserves to be the most popular play of the night; on FanDuel, it’s maybe a little more of a discussion given it’s a single pitcher site, but he still seems underpriced there too at $9,500.

Taijuan Walker: ($8,800 DK, $8,900 FD): vs HOU (ND) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 93 pitches.

Hunter Greene ($8,600 DK, $8,400 FD): @ CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 80 pitches.

Manoah and Urías should be by far the most popular pairing on DraftKings. Given the extremely hitter-friendly venue at Cincinnati, Greene and Walker are alternative plays if you’re multi-entering. The edge between the two, on paper at least, goes to Walker given that he’s the favorite. But, Greene should have the advantage of an ever lower roster percentage as the underdog. Below Walker and Greene, yikes; neither of Chris Flexen, Dakota Hudson, Dylan Bundy, Johnny Cueto, or Kyle Freeland have the strikeout upside worth chasing.

 

 

Bats and Stacks

 

  • TOR (4.4 implied run total) at OAK Cole Irvin (LHP) 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP: Regression could be coming for Irvin; he has an xERA of 5.41 along with an xwOBA of .374. On DraftKings, Teoscar Hernández sticks out at just $4,100. So too does Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who hit .355 with a .899 OPS in June, and is just $3,600 on DK. Matt Chapman could have positive regression headed his way considering his .304 wOBA is backed by a far better .356 xwOBA. And, plus, who can resist a revenge game?
  • ATL (5.2 implied run total) vs STL Dakota Hudson (RHP) 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP: Hudson basically allows way too many baserunners while also having one of the lowest K rates in baseball at 13.3%. Against an Atlanta squad that has hit the second-most home runs in baseball, a 2.4% K-BB% is asking for trouble. Of the big power bats, Matt Olson stands out given his reasonable $4,600 tag on DK. He’ll hold the platoon advantage against the righty Hudson. Hitting at the bottom of the order, the impressive rookie Michael Harris II is an interesting way to round out a potential stack in tournaments.
  • CWS (5.1 implied run total) vs MIN Dylan Bundy (RHP)  4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP: The former Oriole has been excellent at limiting walks this year, but that’s also come with a career-low 16.9% K rate. He’s been significantly worse against LHB, so Yoán Moncada could be an interesting gamble at $2,400 on DraftKings; he’s been far better as a lefty hitter in his career too. Lefty/righty splits aside, José Abreu just looks too cheap at $3,900 on DraftKings, especially with the White Sox back home at hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field against a pitcher who has had his fair share of home run woes throughout his career.
  • LAD (5.5 implied run total) vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) 4.31 ERA, 1.38 WHIP: The Dodgers are right up there with the Braves with the slate’s highest implied total of five and a half runs. Mookie Betts made his return yesterday and looked none the worse for wear with a pair of doubles. He seems too cheap at $4,300 on DraftKings.

 

Honorable MentionsMIN at CWS (RHP Johnny Cueto), NYM at CIN (RHP Hunter Greene)

 

Value Bats

 

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

 

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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