DFS Plays of the Day – July 3

Ryan Amore previews Saturday's DFS slate.

Saturday night brings a seven-game slate highlighted by Coors Field and pitching led by Clayton Kershaw followed by a suspect cast of characters.

 

Tonight’s Pitching Options

 

Showing 1 to 6 of 6 entries

 

It’s Clayton Kershaw and everybody else tonight. He’s coming off of a dominant performance against the Cubs his last time out. Thirteen strikeouts across seven and two thirds innings backed by a 44.6% CSW. Not bad. He’s also gone over 100 pitches in two of his last three turns. The Dodgers are massive road favorites tonight (-198) at Washington.

 

The next highest priced pitcher is Alex Cobb at $9,400 on DraftKings who somehow earned a raise in salary following his latest start, a dud in his former stamping grounds at the Trop. Cobb seems overpriced, as $600 more on DraftKings can get you Kershaw, which just seems odd. Regardless, he does offer the second-highest K rate on the slate at 27.8% just ahead of Jake Odorizzi at 27.3%. The overall context of the slate is Cobb’s sales pitch. He’s the biggest favorite on the board (-206) and, really, on DraftKings the options to pair with Kershaw are limited for lack of a better word. The Orioles have been a below-average offense this season with a .304 team wOBA (19th) so it’s not a bad spot in that sense.

 

Marco Gonzales has less than ideal underlying numbers, including an alarming .431 xwOBA allowed. Yikes. Still, he’s there as an SP 2 considering that he’s a home favorite against a weaker Texas offense that ranks just 24th in team wOBA at .300.

 

Cole Irvin is coming off of a surprising start against the Giants his last time out. Eight innings along with eighth strikeouts (33% CSW) but considering his career 17.3% K rate that just screams outlier. He seems like an easy fade tonight against an offense like Boston. 

 

Sammy Long is a potential SP 2 on DraftKings. He’s a strong road favorite (-166) against a Ketel Marte less D-Backs team. He’s shown some impressive strikeout ability in the minor leagues this season, albeit in a very specious sample size. Still, Long is there by attrition considering our dearth of options tonight. He did get his pitch count up to 91 his last time out. 

 

Pitchers to Target Hitters Against

 


Yep, it’s one of
those types of slates. There’s no shortage of possible bats tonight with so many suspect pitchers on the bump. Jumping right to Coors Field, Kyle Freeland has been trending in the right direction for two turns now. In his last start against the Pirates he was impressive, collecting seven K’s backed by a 34.2% CSW as both his slider and curveball generated some whiffs. We’ve seen Freeland be effective before as you may recall his halcyon days back in 2018. But, let’s be real, this could easily fall apart into a cloud of pixie dust, it is Coors Field afterall, and we’re talking about a pitcher in Freeland who owns a career 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, while allowing a .342 wOBA to RHB. Paul Goldschmidt should remain the chalk option at first and rightfully so. On DraftKings, Nolan Arenado is a tougher spend considering his cost at $5,900. Tyler O’Neill, who left last night’s game after being hit by a pitch, is underpriced on DraftKings relative to his power upside ($4,100). Dylan Carlson also remains a strong value on both sites from the leadoff spot. 

 

After being squelched the first two games of this series, this is a possible eruption spot for the Rockies. Wade LeBlanc enters the conversation of worst pitcher on the slate considering his K rate on the year stands at 15%. And as you can see, he’s coughed up a .388 wOBA to opposing bats this year. He’s actually been a reverse splits guy for his career (.359 wOBA allowed to LHB) so the potential leverage could be including the lefties in Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon. Either way, don’t hesitate to go back to the Rockies tonight in any format, across an even 900 innings for his career LeBlanc owns a 4.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 10% K-BB%.

 

The Dodgers are high on the list of offenses tonight as they’ll face the righty Paolo Espino, a 34-year-old, who, after ten years in the minor leagues, made his career debut back in 2017 for the Brewers. To his credit, he’s managed a 3.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across his 65.2 career innings, still, this doesn’t look like the sort of pitcher that we should be avoiding by any means especially with an offense like the Dodgers who are installed with a team total of over five runs. It’s difficult to overlook the value with Cody Bellinger who somehow costs $100 less than Hunter Renfroe on DraftKings. What a time to be alive.

 

It’s another potential eruption spot for the Angels and Shohei Ohtani who get to face Jorge López, they’re installed with a team total just under six runs. If you can’t get to Arenado, I think there’s some value to be had with Anthony Rendon ($4,900 DK, $3,300 FD), who might be starting to come back to life. 

 

Baseball’s most productive offense to date, the Astros are another team worth targeting as they’ll face a suspect pitcher in the inexperienced Eli Morgan. He’s shown a very good changeup but not much else behind it, leaving him ill-equipped to silence an offense of this caliber. Their viability will hinge on what kind of lineup we get though as, Yordan Álvarez should remain out tonight (paternity leave). While Kyle Tucker was a late scratch last night. If he returns tonight, though, he is an all formats type of play at just $3,800 on DraftKings. Michael Brantley is a solid option as well on DraftKings at $4,100. Abraham Toro is a potential value play at 3B if you need it. You can definitely look to the Astros, but considering that we’re probably getting a weaker lineup than usual, they are a little lower on the list than they otherwise would be. 

 

GPP Bats

 

Garrett Richards is a wreck right now. Post sticky stuff, he’s a man clearly searching for something. In his last start against the Royals he whipped out his changeup for the first time, since, checks notes, 2016. His saving grace tonight might be an Athletics lineup that is missing their leadoff man in Mark Canha. Along with a venue in Oakland that tends to be a little more forgiving. Still, at the very least, how can you not have interest in Matt Olson? He’s a phenomenal pivot off of Goldschmidt.

 

One of the surprises of the first half, for me at least, is the Giants. They are tied with the Jays for the most homeruns in the league at 118. I suspect that they will be underrepresented tonight with most lineups flocking to Coors and the Dodgers. There is some potential value there with the likes of LaMonte Wade Jr./strong> and Alex Dickerson. They’ll face the ghost of Jake Faria. Now there’s a name I’ve not heard in a long, long time. And behind him is a bullpen that has struggled to put it kindly.

 

Jordan Lyles is another stack-against candidate. Unfortunately, he’ll likely face some reprieve against a weaker Mariners lineup. Still, you don’t often see the Mariners installed with a total of five runs so there’s some potential value with the likes of Ty France, Shed Long, Taylor Trammell, and Jake Bauers if you’re searching for a punt. Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger are easily the strongest hitters here and make for worthwhile pivots in tournaments.

 

Value Bats

 

 

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Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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