DFS Plays of the Day – July 25

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With most of the aces having gone last night, Saturday’s thirteen-game main slate on FanDuel and eleven-game main slate on DraftKings present us with a deeper pool of bats to consider. There looks to be plenty of value bats to consider on FanDuel, so fitting in your pick of Mike Clevinger, Luis Castillo, or Yu Darvish should be fairly manageable. As is usually the case, there’s less glaring value on DraftKings, so doubling down on Zack Wheeler and Darvish might be tricky.

After hanging 13 runs on the O’s last evening, expect the Red Sox to be popular once again as they are set to face off against Alex Cobb. The Astros also get an exploitable opponent in Taijuan Walker whose last two seasons have been washed away by injury. Also, keep in mind that Rich Hill’s start was pushed back, and he will be replaced by Randy Dobnak. At least on paper, it looks like a decent upgrade for White Sox bats.

 

Top SP: Yu Darvish, CHC ($10,500 DK, $9,300 FD) vs. MIL

 

Let’s take a moment to remember Yu Darvish and his sublime second half of 2019. In just over 80 innings, he posted a ludicrous 35.6% K-BB%, his K rate jumped nearly 8%, and his WHIP was a spotless 0.81. Now, of course, we can’t expect those rates to continue, but it serves to highlight the potential upside here with Darvish. He’ll face the division-rival Brewers, who’ve lost a couple of key pieces in their lineup this past offseason: Namely, Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. 

If you’re playing the main slate on DraftKings, keep in mind the two 5:10 p.m. (EST) games are not included, so unfortunately, you’ll lose out on two of today’s most exciting options in Luis Castillo and Mike Clevinger. Both are great options on FanDuel; particularly Castillo, who comes in a little cheaper and gets a great draw against a very weak Tigers lineup.

Honorable Mentions: Luis Castillo, CIN ($9,800 FD) vs. DET; Mike Clevinger, CLE ($10,400 FD) vs. KC; Zack Wheeler, PHI ($9,000 FD, $10,100 DK) vs. MIA. 

 

Value SP: Alex Wood, LAD ($7,800 DK, $6,800 FD) vs SF

 

There’s been a lot of buzz around Corbin Burnes, as he been very impressive in Summer Camp. Recently Michael Ajeto speculated on what a possible Burnes breakout could look like. I’m going to hold off, though, for his first start, even though his price is very tempting. A matchup against the Cubs isn’t ideal, but mostly this has to do with Brewers manager Craig Counsell admitting that he’ll be fairly stingy with his starters their first time through the rotation, so I’d be surprised if we got much length here.

Instead, we’ll look to Alex Wood, who is looking to bounce back from a lost 2019 in Cincinnati. He returns to L.A., where he enjoyed some success from 2016-18. Wood is someone who also showed increased velocity in camp. His last tuneup was very encouraging, as he struck out eight over six innings while throwing 89 pitches in the process. And, of course, the opponent being a tepid San Francisco lineup adds to the appeal. As mentioned earlier, fitting in Wheeler and Darvish on DraftKings is tough, so Wood could be the key to getting some much-needed salary relief in order to fit some decent bats in.

Honorable Mention: Lance McCullers Jr./strong>, HOU ($8,500 DK, $8,000 FD) vs. SEA

 

OF Nelson Cruz, MIN ($4,900 DK, $3,600 FD) at CWS

 

The projections over at Fade The Noise absolutely love the Twins today, as they have an implied run total approaching six runs. In addition to a pedestrian 18.7% K rate, Dallas Keuchel is a pitcher with a significant platoon split last year, allowing a .339 wOBA to opposing right-handed batters. This is a possible blowup spot for Nelson Cruz and his ridiculous 19.9% barrel rate and career .396 wOBA/150 wRC+versus southpaws.

Honorable Mentions: J.D. Martinez, OF ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. BAL Alex Cobb; Marcell Ozuna, OF ($4,300 DK, $3,100 FD) at NYM Steven Matz. 

 

3B Rafael Devers, BOS ($5,600 DK, $3,700 FD) vs. BAL

 

It’s been a long, long time since we’ve since Alex Cobb and his vintage split-finger change, aptly named “The Thing.” Once upon a time, Cobb posted back to back sub-3.00 ERA seasons in 2013 and 2014. Regardless, the projections remain bearish on any sort of Cobb resurgence and instead steer us straight to Boston and its implied total of just under six runs. Rafael Devers‘ price is tough to get to on DraftKings, but there’s an appreciable ceiling for the young lefty who menaced righties last year, tallying a .403 wOBA against them.

Honorable Mentions: Francisco Lindor, SS ($3,900 FD) vs. KC Brady Singer; Josh Donaldson, 3B ($4,000 DK) vs. CWS Dallas Keuchel. 

 

Value Batter: 3B Matt Carpenter, STL ($3,700 DK, $2,500 FD) vs. PIT

 

After a disastrous 2019 that saw Matt Carpenter post what was by far a career-worst 95 wRC+, the veteran enters the season in high spirits. He spent the offseason fixing his swing in an effort to get back to an all-field approach and is evidently thrilled with the results. Insert the Undertaker GIF here. For his career, Carpenter has managed an outstanding .370 wOBA and .383 OBP against RHP. He gets a great opportunity this afternoon against one Trevor Williams, who coughed up an ugly .393 wOBA against lefty batters last season.

Honorable Mentions: Jesse Winker, OF ($2,300 FD) vs. DET Ivan Nova; Andrew Benintendi, OF ($2,700 FD, $3,900 DK) vs. BAL Alex Cobb; Yoshitomo Tsustugo, 3B/OF ($2,000 DK, $2,600 FD) vs. TOR Matt Shoemaker; Eloy Jimenez, OF ($3,000 FD) vs. MIN Randy Dobnak; Luis Robert, OF ($2,500) vs. MIN Randy Dobnak; Josh Donaldson, 3B ($3,000 FD) at CWS Dallas Keuchel; Alex Verdugo, OF ($2,300 FD, $3,600 DK) vs. BAL Alex Cobb. 

 

Lineup Stack: Twins at CWS (LHP Dallas Keuchel)

 

The Red Sox should be a very popular stack against the O’s and Cobb, but we’ll go in a different direction. The FTN projections are evidently not a fan of the soft-tossing Keuchel, as they are indicating the Twins as being strong buys this afternoon. We mentioned Cruz earlier, but there is also Josh Donaldson, whose .403 career wOBA vs LHP makes him an excellent standalone play as well, and Miguel Sano to consider here as high-upside righty power bats. Mitch Garver might not be in there, as its a day game following a night game, but he profiles favorably here as well.

Honorable Mentions: Indians vs. Royals (Singer); Reds vs. Tigers (Nova); Red Sox vs. Orioles (Cobb).

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)