Saturday night brings a fun, ten-game slate. Without further ado let’s take a look.
The Top Tier
I hope you like strikeouts. I suspect we could see some tonight in Milwaukee with Corbin Burnes set to host Carlos Rodón and the White Sox. Picking between the two is truly splitting hairs and I don’t think you can go wrong with either one. This might be contrarian considering he’s the road dog, but I’m going to side with Rodón as he’s slightly cheaper and I think the Brewers might pull back a little on Burnes’ pitch count tonight considering he’s coming off of a high watermark of 108 his last time out.
Among qualifiers, Kevin Gausman’s 30.5% K rate ranks sixth. He’s the biggest favorite on the board (-261) against the Pirates. If you want to save a little and forego Burnes and Rodón, he’s your guy.
Chris Bassitt is probably the contrarian play here. And it’s not a bad leverage spot for tournaments considering the Mariners are tied with the Tigers for the worst K rate in baseball at 26.5%.
Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers
My favorite play in the middle tier is Patrick Sandoval. With Nelson Cruz gone and Alek Kirilloff on the IL, the Twins are an easier matchup than they were to start the year. Mitch Garver is out too (paternity). The Panada has shown the sort of swing and miss ability that you’re looking for with a 26.2% K rate (16% SwStr rate) and at an appealing salary too.
Logan Gilbert deserves your attention. He’s really starting to find his stride and is coming off an impressive outing against the Angels (nine K’s, 33% CSW, 5.1 IP). The rookie finds himself as a home underdog (124) as the Mariners host the Athletics tonight. If he keeps pitching this well (22.8% K-BB%) his salary will almost certainly continue to rise.
Tony Gonsolin is of note by virtue of getting the road Rockies and being one of the bigger favorites on the board (-217). Although, I’m waiting for his pitch count to come up more as he’s peaked at just 83 so far this year.
Luis Castillo gets the Cardinals (.299 team wOBA, 26th) at home and is too cheap relative to his upside on both sites. He’s a volatile option best suited for tournaments.
Bats and Stacks
- Let’s survey some of tonight’s suspect pitching in our quest for bats. The Pirates’ Wil Crowe (RHP) carries a 1.62 WHIP into tonight’s contest and has allowed a .384 wOBA (.360 xwOBA) to opposing hitters. The Giants have an implied total of five runs and are a good source of value with the likes of LaMonte Wade Jr./strong> from the leadoff spot, Wilmer Flores, Alex Dickerson, and Mike Yastrzemski (DraftKings).
- The Rays feel like a new offense with Nelson Cruz. They have an implied team total of just under five runs and face J.C. Mejia (RHP) who carries a 1.44 WHIP and 7.53 ERA (5.30 xERA) into tonight’s contest. In particular, he’s had trouble with lefty bats (.393 xwOBA allowed to LHB) so while the aforementioned Cruz is of course a play, don’t forget about the likes of Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows. Ji-Man Choi is a punt play at first for tournaments. Take advantage of Wander Franco on FanDuel, he’s too cheap there.
- The Dodgers lineup isn’t at full strength right now as Mookie Betts is dealing with a hip injury and Max Muncy is on paternity leave. Still, you can look to the righties in the top half of the order, most notably Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollock, and Will Smith. They’ll face the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland (LHP) who has allowed a .345 xwOBA to righties this year. And if you’re looking to party like it’s 2004, Albert Pujols has hit lefties well this year (.394 xwOBA, 101 PA). He should be there hitting fourth or fifth. The Dodgers have the top implied team total on the board at 5.3 runs.
- The Blue Jays get Taijuan Walker. For as well as he’s pitched I do think we see at least a little regression from him in the second half (4.06 xERA). The Jays aren’t priorities by any means but they can break the slate on any given night.
- The Tigers get a boom/bust type of spot against the Royals’ Carlos Hernández (RHP). He’s shown impressive strikeout stuff (30.5% K rate) but also the propensity for walks (14.4% BB rate). One of this year’s breakouts, Akil Baddoo remains affordable on both sites as the Tiger’s leadoff man. Hernández ($4,900 DraftKings) himself is an interesting SP 2 punt if you’re multi entering and feeling dangerous.
- Kyle Gibson has been excellent this year at avoiding loud contact with a minuscule 3.9% barrel rate and .292 xwOBA allowed. Still, the Astros are the sort of elite offense that could give him some trouble and they do have an implied team total of just under five runs. Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker should be on your radar for tournaments as they could go under represented.
- After sitting out last night’s contest (the nerve!!) we might see a small dip in Shohei Ohtani’s roster % in tournaments. Jose Berríos has not been that great against lefties this season (.356 xwOBA allowed). Don’t overlook the MVP.
Value Bats
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)