Saturday night brings a ten-game slate led by the Dodgers at Coors Field and plenty of options at pitcher. Let’s get to it!
The Top Tier
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When I was looking over this slate, the first thing that really stuck out to me was seeing the Yankees/Red Sox game as basically a pick ‘em with Gerrit Cole at home. Although, maybe at this point it shouldn’t be altogether surprising considering the Yankees’ season to date. Cole is coming off of a dominant performance against the Astros in his last turn before the break, a complete game shutout that included 12 K’s backed by a 32.6% CSW and is the top play for me. Although, you can’t go wrong with Brandon Woodruff by any means if you’re picking between the two.
The Yankees have been more or less league-average as an offense this season (99 wRC+, .314 wOBA, 13th), in other words a massive disappointment relative to their standards. Now go ahead and take out Aaron Judge and Luke Voit and you’re left with the atrocity of a lineup that we saw last night. The latest edition of Boone’s bummers featured Rougned Odor hitting third, an all too fitting microcosm of the 2021 Yankees. Nathan Eovaldi has been fantastic this year and I have no reservations deploying him in any format.
Anthony DeSclafani is probably the forgotten man here as I’d guess most lineups will try to find a way to get to either Cole or Woodruff. Still, DeSclafani has been impressive in his own right and it’s not as if the Cardinals lineup is scaring anyone outside of their own fans as they’re tied with the D-Backs with a .297 team wOBA (26th).
Both Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito seem like easy fades based on their opponents, Coors Field and the Astros respectively. Yusei Kikuchi is another interesting option tonight. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh. The rest of the Angels lineup is a bunch of ragamuffins. Yes, here’s to you, Adam Eaton.
Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers
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Are you looking for a volatile option in the mid-tier? Then consider Luis Castillo and Alex Cobb. They’re both at home and get bumps in strikeout upside tonight against the Brewers (26% team K rate, 6th highest) and Mariners (26.3%, 5th highest) respectively.
Max Fried is another option too. The Rays have not quite thrived against southpaws this season with a 27.2% team K rate against them, third highest. He’ll also have the added advantage of facing an A.L. pitcher.
Someone to keep an eye on is Tylor Megill. He’s shown some strikeout ability in an albeit brief four start sample (28.3% K rate, 15.3% SwStr rate in Triple-A too). He gets the Pirates tonight and managed seven K’s against them his last time out. Cobb, Castillo, and Fried probably make more sense at this price point on DraftKings, regardless Megill is on the board as a potential differentiator in tournaments.
Bats and Stacks
I hope you’re sitting down. The top stack of the night is the, wait for it, Dodgers at Coors Field. Shocking, I know. They’re implied team total of seven and a half runs leads the slate by far. Kyle Freeland has been doing his thing of late and by that I mean, shades of 2018. Still, his K rate sits at 16.6% on the year along with an xERA of 5.29, the odds are firmly against him at Coors so you have to give the edge to the Dodger bats here. Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy are three of tonight’s top hitters that deserve your attention.
After scoring three touchdowns and a field goal last night, the Padres find themselves in another potential explosion spot against Patrick Corbin who has been dusted by opposing righty bats this season to the tune of a .367 xwOBA allowed. Fernando Tatís Jr goes without saying, however, Tommy Pham remains a strong value on both sites. Wil Myers is still very cheap too if you want to roll the dice on an encore performance.
For tournaments, the Mets are an interesting stack to consider as they have an implied total north of five runs. Wil Crowe has been all sorts of not good. He’s coughed up a .358 xwOBA to opposing batters this year along with a below-average 19.8% K rate. At the very least, this looks like an opportunity for you to buy-low on Michael Conforto.
Are you fading Alex Cobb? Then consider Jarred Kelenic. He’s back and just $2,000 on both sites.
The matchup against Jake Odorizzi doesn’t stand out but a value bat I’m interested in is Andrew Vaughn. I think the talented rookie is starting to find his footing so to speak and I suspect his salary goes up from here.
Are you looking for another spot for offense? Consider the Royals then who have an implied run total just under six. Jorge López is coming to town and he brings along a thoroughly unimpressive 1.63 WHIP, so the Royals should have plenty of baserunners tonight. Now, what they do with them is anyone’s guess. There are some potential DraftKings values here in Jorge Soler and Andrew Benintendi.
Value Bats
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)