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Saturday night brings us an eight-game main slate featuring plenty of spots to chase offense. At the top of the board are the Red Sox who will be hosting the Jays and Chase Anderson who is making his debut after a stint on the IL with an oblique injury. If there was ever a spot for J.D. Martinez to wake up this is it.
Not far behind or arguably even ahead are the Twins, who get to visit KC and tee off against the lefty Danny Duffy (26.5% “CSW”, 12.4% K-BB% in 2019). Last season the Twins trailed only the Astros in team wOBA against LHP at .361. Some of the Mets bats, particularly on FanDuel, are priced really affordably and could certainly payoff against whomever Don Mattingly and the Marlins pick to start tonight’s contest.
The pitching side of the slate is pretty clearly Chris Paddack, Clayton Kershaw, and a whole mess of bleh. We’ve seen the Brewers struggle a bit offensively so maybe Anthony DeSclafani (26.2% CSW, 11.1 % K-BB% in 2019) could be slightly interesting as a second SP on DraftKings but with a pitch count of just 64 in his first start, temper expectations.
Top SP: Clayton Kershaw, ($10,500 DK, $10,600 FD) vs SF
Clayton Kershaw (28.9% CSW, 21% K-BB%) is the clear top play at pitcher tonight with his Dodgers being the largest favorite on the board by a wide margin. Meanwhile, going by the DFS optimizer at FTN, the visiting Giants have easily the lowest implied total of the slate. Kershaw looked very good in his season debut at Arizona where he threw 81 pitches across 5.2 innings. It was encouraging too to see his fastball sit in the 92-93 range, which is a noticeable tick up from last season’s average of just over 90. If for some reason you are considering Jake Odorizzi, he’s coming off a long IL stint and will almost certainly be facing some sort of pitch count that takes him off the board at his price.
Honorable Mentions: The top-tier cupboard is barren tonight. It’s Kershaw or bust.
Value SP: Chris Paddack, SD ($7,900 DK, $9,100 FD) vs ARI
I’m not quite sure why Chris Paddack (28.6% CSW, 21.5% K-BB% in 2019) is priced this low, particularly on DraftKings. Whatever the case may be, let’s take advantage. As of this writing, the Padres are tonight’s second-biggest home favorite on the board trailing only the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. The visiting Diamondbacks have struggled offensively to begin the year currently ranked 27th in team wOBA at .286. They aren’t that bad, of course, but it’s perhaps another feather in the Sheriff’s cap this evening. Per the DFS tools over at FTN, Paddack has the highest value rating of any pitcher over on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention: David Peterson, NYM ($7,200 DK, $8,300 FD) vs. MIA.
SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4,000 DK, $3,600 FD) vs TOR
Chase Anderson (25.8% CSW, 12.5% K-BB% in 2019) will be making his debut of the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He’s coming off an oblique strain and isn’t quite fully stretched out yet but we should see him for about three innings or so. For his career, the righty has been a pretty strong reverse splits pitcher, allowing a .347 wOBA to RHB as opposed to just .293 against LHB. A low K-rate (20.2% for his career) and a batted ball profile that leans towards flyballs makes him a susceptible target for bats. This seems like too cheap of a price for a key Red Sox bat in Xander Bogaerts, who is off to a really strong start to begin the season.
Honorable Mentions: Mitch Garver, C ($4,600 DK, $2,500 FD) at KC; Michael Conforto, OF ($4,000 DK, $2,900 FD) vs MIA; Nick Castellanos, OF ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD) at MIL.
OF Nelson Cruz, MIN ($5,100 DK, $4,200 FD) at KC.
As we mentioned earlier, the Twins should be a very popular target this evening facing off against the southpaw Duffy. As if we needed another reason to play the ageless one Nelson Cruz, consider the fact that the Duff Man has allowed a .332 wOBA to RHB across his career which spans 1,070.1 innings. And he’s also surrendered 44 home runs over the last two seasons.
Honorable Mentions: Christian Yelich, OF ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD) vs CIN; J.D. Martinez, OF ($5,300 DK, $3,700 FD) vs TOR; Rafael Devers, 3B ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD) vs. TOR.
Value Batter: OF Alex Verdugo, BOS ($3,300 DK, $2,300 FD) vs TOR
Considering last night’s huge performance and the equally underwhelming performance of Andrew Benintendi thus far it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Alex Verdugo get a promotion in the lineup. The former Dodger prospect is priced to move on both major sites and would be a very popular play if he were to find himself hitting leadoff for a Red Sox offense that should, on paper at least, score plenty of runs against a susceptible Chase Anderson.
Honorable Mentions: J.D. Davis, OF ($3,800 DK, $2,700 FD) vs MIA; Brandon Nimmo, OF ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD) vs MIA; Rowdy Tellez, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD) at BOS; Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B ($3,000 FD) at BOS; Marwin Gonzalez, 1B/3B ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at KC; Jo Adell, OF ($3,800 DK, $2,100 FD) at TEX; Nick Senzel, OF ($3,300 DK) at MIL: Jake Cronenworth, 1B ($2,700 DK, $2,500 FD) vs ARI; Dominic Smith, 1B/OF ($3,800 DK, $2,500 FD) vs MIA; Byron Buxton, OF ($3,400 DK, $2,300 FD) at KC.
Lineup Stack: Twins at KC (LHP Danny Duffy)
As mentioned earlier, the Twins should be plenty popular tonight, and with good reason. Last season this was a lineup that absolutely dominated opposing southpaws (.361 team wOBA vs LHB in 2019) and tonight it will be Duffy’s turn to try and stem the tide. Mitch Garver as the likely leadoff man is simply too cheap on Fanduel. Unfortunately, Josh Donaldson was just placed on the IL which stings a bit, but there is still quite a bit of firepower here with the likes of Miguel Sano (.329 ISO last season) and, of course, the aforementioned Cruz. At the bottom of the order, Byron Buxton ($3,400 DK, $2,300 FD) provides an excellent boom/bust play that’s perfect for tournaments. While Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are lined up to be tournament difference makers as most players will likely shy away from the lefty/lefty matchup.
Honorable Mentions: TOR at BOS (Godley); BOS vs TOR (Anderson); NYM vs MIA (TBD).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)