Tonight’s slate features just five games on DraftKings and six on FanDuel where they’ve opted to include the Reds and Marlins game, shifting their “main” slate start time to 6:40 PM. It’s an interesting slate with a likely pitcher’s duel in San Diego, a game in Coors field, and the Red Sox and Atlanta bats in potential blow up spots.
Today’s Pitching Options
| Opp | ML | Salary DK/FD | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | vs PHI | -163 | $9.1/ $9.4 | 133.1 | 21.2% | 31.5% | 13% | 1.03 | 3.10 | 3.63 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | vs TEX | -327 | $9.5/ $9.8 | 116 | 21.9% | 28.9% | 12% | 1.36 | 4.97 | 3.68 |
| Aaron Nola | at SD | 149 | $9.9/ $9.1 | 134.2 | 23.4% | 30.8% | 12.9% | 1.17 | 4.48 | 3.63 |
| J.A. Happ | vs PIT | -199 | $7.6/ $8.1 | 115 | 10.2% | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 6.03 | 5.63 |
| Zac Gallen | at COL | 131 | $7.2/ $7.2 | 73.1 | 16.3% | 28% | 9.5% | 1.40 | 5.03 | 3.98 |
| Wade Miley | vs MIA | -194 | $8,800 (FD) | 133 | 11.3% | 25.4% | 10% | 1.21 | 2.84 | 3.93 |
| Kyle Freeland | vs ARI | -142 | $5.7/ $6.8 | 77.2 | 12.4% | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.42 | 4.40 | 4.04 |
Tonight’s pitching duel pits Aaron Nola against Joe Musgrove. As far as matchups go, it would appear to slightly favor Musgrove as the Phillies’ team wOBA of .311 ranks 18th and their K rate of 23.8% ranks 11th highest. The Padres, meanwhile, are at .320 (11th) and 21.8% (27th) respectively. For Nola his latest start was a not so memorable affair against the Reds.
Before that, though, he was in the middle of a gem against the Dodgers before the rain came in (4.0 IP, seven K’s, 39.2% CSW). Musgrove is coming off of a surprising dud of a start against the D-Backs his last time out allowing six earned runs and ten hits in five innings with just four K’s (30.9% CSW). On DraftKings, I’m expecting most rosters to pick Musgrove between the two as he’s not only the home favorite, but also cheaper (Musgrove is more expensive on FD).
Grading the two is awfully tough as their indicators are all very close, even their 3.63 xERA are identical. In tournaments, though, I would slightly lean towards Nola as I think you could be getting a decent discount in terms of roster %.
Oh the horrors of a short slate where we have to do things like consider J.A. Happ. Well, he’s a big home favorite (-199) tonight. Yeah, you’re right we should probably just stack the Pirates instead.
At a similar price point on DraftKings, you can consider Zac Gallen as a boom/bust SP 2 on DraftKings. He’s kind of the reverse of J.A. Happ tonight, excellent skills, right-handed, but horrible context at Coors Field. Perhaps the better SP 2 on DraftKings is Kyle Freeland, considering he’s the home favorite facing a weaker lineup (.303 team wOBA, 23rd) and the opportunity cost is a bit less at just $5,700. Both are on the board as low-floor SP 2 options.
Wade Miley ($8,800) is your FanDuel only play. He’s a strong home favorite (-194) against the Marlins and their third-worst .297 team wOBA. On Fanduel, though, it just makes so much more sense to go up a little more in order to target either Nola or Musgrove at $9,100 and $9,400 respectively.
Bats and Stacks
- ATL (6.2) at Matt Harvey (RHP) 10.3% K-BB, .350 xwOBA, 1.55 WHIP, 5.38 xERA: No surprises, Harvey should, once again, be a popular stack against target in all formats. At hitter-friendly Camden Yards, Atlanta is right up there tonight with the Rockies and Red Sox as far as implied total. Harvey has actually been a little worse against RHB this year allowing a .367 xwOBA to them (.330 vs LHB).
- BOS (6.4) vs Jordan Lyles (RHP) 10.8% K-BB, .360 xwOBA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.74 xERA: Lyles has allowed an xwOBA of over .350 to both sides of the plate this year, and is an easy target here at Fenway where the Red Sox figure to be one of the most productive stacks of the night. Alex Verdugo (.344 xwOBA this year) is projected to hit second and is a way to get some cheap exposure to Boston ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD). Kyle Schwarber (.396 xwOBA) is an excellent play here too as he’ll have the platoon advantage against the righty Lyles.
- COL (6.4) vs Zac Gallen (RHP) 16.3% K-BB, .306 xwOBA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.98 xERA: I’m torn here as I don’t really want to pick on Gallen, however, it is Coors Field and he has allowed a lot of baserunners this year. And the D-Backs pen has been hideous, their relievers combining for a league-worst 1.53 WHIP. For his career, Gallen has allowed exactly a .299 wOBA to both RHB and LHB. I’m looking at the Rockies as more of a boom/bust stack in tournaments. There is still some value with Connor Joe at leadoff on DK ($3,600).
- ARI (5.4) at Kyle Freeland (LHP) 12.4% K-BB, .308 xwOBA, 1.42 WHIP, 4.04 xERA: Freeland has very much righted the ship after a shaky start. I’m Ketel Marte’s (.373 xwOBA) not-so-secret admirer. He’s always shown more power as a righty and we’ll have that advantage tonight. Other than that, it’s difficult to have a ton of interest. Christian Walker (.307 xwOBA) has been dreadful this year but he still has some power and he’s cheap enough to consider as a punt on DK ($2,700) if you’re multi entering.
- BAL (4.5) vs Drew Smyly (LHP) 12.7% K-BB, .334 xwOBA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.83: The Oriole’s implied total of 4.5 runs doesn’t really jump out at you, so this is a spot where there might be some potential leverage, relatively speaking at least considering it’s a small slate. Smyly has long had home run issues and a trip to Camden Yards shouldn’t remediate that issue. On DK there is some potential value with Austin Hays (.307 xwOBA) and Anthony Santander (.331 xwOBA). Overall, Trey Mancini (.346 xwOBA) is probably the best bet here and looks a little too cheap on FanDuel at $3,100.
- STL (5.4) vs Dillon Peters (LHP): Peters has made exactly two appearances this year. But, if you consider what he did back in 2019, namely a 6.05 xERA, and .361 xwOBA across 72 IP you should want to attack this spot. Vegas agrees too, installing J.A. Happ, of all pitchers, as a massive home favorite tonight. Tyler O’Neill and his sizzling .398 xwOBA is too cheap on DraftKings at $3,500. There is some potential value too with Paul Goldschmidt (.381 xwOBA) as the best overall bat here, he’s just $4,600 on DK.
- CIN (5.2) vs Zach Thompson (RHP) 13% K-BB, .303 xwOBA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.90 xERA: FanDuel only. Thompson has been effective overall, but he’s been a bit weaker to lefties. No Jesse Winker (intercostal strain) but at this point you have to have Joey Votto (.410 xwOBA) on your list just about every night.
Value Bats
| Position | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | vs STL (Happ) | $4,300 | $2,900 |
| Tommy Edman | 2B/OF | vs PIT (Peters) | $3,500 | $3,000 |
| Tyler O’Neill | OF | vs PIT (Peters) | $3,500 | $3,200 |
| Mike Moustakas | 2B/3B | vs MIA (Thompson) | — | $2,300 |
| Austin Hays | OF | vs ATL (Smyly) | $3,100 | $2,700 |
| Trey Mancini | OF | vs ATL (Smyly) | $4,900 | $3,100 |
| Alex Verdugo | OF | vs Tex (Lyles) | $3,500 | $3,000 |
| Samuel Hilliard | OF | vs ARI (Gallen) | $2,300 | $2,900 |
| Connor Joe | OF | vs ARI (Gallen) | $3,600 | $3,600 |
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