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The week is flying by as it’s hump day already! We have 11-game slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel as the second game of the Reds/Royals double-header isn’t included. Get your Aces Gonna Ace shirts out as we have a ton of pitching today. We have the New York aces, Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom on the slate representing The Big Apple. On top of the NY aces, we have Chris Paddack, Aaron Civale, Lance Lynn, and Tyler Glasnow. With the pitching being loads of fun, it makes finding the quality bats a little tough. Coors is on the slate, but DraftKings did a decent job of pricing up the visiting Astros. We’ll see what our friends over at Fade the Noise have for us to find the bats. Let’s dive in.
Top SP: Julio Urias, LAD ($10,100 DK, $7,900 FD) at SEA
Once again, I’ll throw the disclaimer in – if you want to pay up for Cole or deGrom, go for it. They’re excellent, and you get nothing from me telling you they’re excellent, so I wanted to write about someone a little more under the radar. The only note I will include about Cole’s matchup – the Rays are scorching hot right now. That’s not to say Cole can’t shut them down, I just want to point out a .402 wOBA over the last seven days is really, really good. Also, deGrom is coming off a neck injury that led to him being scratched from his last start. For having prices over $11k on DK, these are certainly not the safest situations.
While I’m not super jazzed at Julio Urias’s price on DK, the price on FD seems like a huge value. Urias has been good to start the year, allowing just six earned runs over 21.1 innings pitched. There is some concern over the lack of strikeouts (15.3% K%), although his swinging strike rate of 11.8% says that strikeout rate should be on the rise. Today, Urias gets a matchup with the Mariners, whose bats have been chilly all year. In fact, they’re sporting a .254 wOBA against left-handed pitching for the season. They’re also striking out at a 25.5% clip. To me, this matchup has the safety I look for in a cash game pitcher. Although, I’m not sure that I’m willing to pay that fare on DraftKings.
Honorable Mentions: Gerrit Cole, NYY ($11,000 DK, $10,900 FD) vs. TB; Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,800 DK, $10,700 FD) at MIA; Aaron Civale, CLE ($9,800 DK, $9,500 FD) at PIT; Lance Lynn, TEX ($9,200 DK, $9,700 FD) at SD
Value SP: Chris Paddack, SD ($7,700 DK, $8,100 FD) vs. TEX
Chris Paddack has not been the ace we were expecting coming into the year. While the fastball velocity has been fine, the command of the pitch just isn’t there. Nick had this to say after Paddack’s last start, “He’s not throwing it along the edges like he normally does and what’s a bit odd is that it’s not a product of his changeup.” The hope is that he reads the SP Roundup and recognizes the adjustments he needs to make to get right. Or, that the team has some kind of coach that works specifically with pitchers that can help him moving forward. What I love about this start is the matchup. The Rangers have been spinning their tires since the season began. Even a trip to Coors last week didn’t get them out of the mud as they’ve posted a .287 team wOBA on the year. If ever there’s a start for Paddack to get right, it’s here against these lowly Rangers.
Honorable Mentions: Casey Mize, DET ($6,900 DK, $6,600 FD) at CHW; Patrick Sandoval, LAA ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD) at SF
OF Nelson Cruz, MIN ($5,300 DK, $4,200 FD) vs. MIL
I’m not going to highlight any of the bats in Coors tonight as they’re all relatively priced up. I might pop a couple in the value section if I feel like they’re too cheap, but do you really need me to tell you that Alex Bregman in Coors is a solid play? I didn’t think so.
It’s Nelson Cruz versus a lefty day! Cruz will get a matchup with southpaw Brett Anderson. The Brewers lefty is allowing a 47.4% hard-hit rate to start the year, and has posted a 4.91 ERA in two starts thus far. Since the start of 2019, Cruz has posted a .504 ISO and .500 wOBA against left-handed pitching, making Cruz a nice pivot off of the expensive Coors bats today.
Honorable Mentions: Juan Soto, OF ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD) at ATL; Marcell Ozuna, OF ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD) vs. WAS
1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,300 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. WAS
The Braves are one of my favorite stacks on today’s slate as they face Eric Fedde. The Nats righty has started the year hot, posting a 2.55 ERA over 17.2 IP. However, he currently sports a -5.0% K-BB% with a .250 BABIP and an 86.8% left on-base rate. All of these scream regression and I want to be on board when the poo hits the fan. Freddie Freeman has been his normal beastly self all year, posting a .410 wOBA against righties, while walking just as much as he’s struck out. Just like Cruz, I like Freeman as a pivot off of the expensive bats in Coors.
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Story, SS ($5,400 DK, $4,500 FD) vs. HOU; Corey Seager, SS ($5,000 DK, $3,800 FD) at SEA
Value Batter: C Travis d’Arnaud, ATL ($3,200 DK, $3,200 FD) vs. WAS
Travis d’Arnaud saw his price creep up some since we last saw him at $2,500 on DK, but this just isn’t enough to keep him out of this value-land. Make sure you check FTN’s Lineup Page to make sure he’s in the lineup, but d’Arnaud has continued to mash. On the year, d’Arnaud is batting .321 with eight extra-base hits. He’s hit righties particularly hard, posting a .361 ISO and .531 wOBA in the early going. If he is in the lineup, he’s the cheap catcher that I’m locking in on DK.
Honorable Mentions: Byron Buxton, OF ($3,400 DK, $2,700 FD) vs. MIL; Austin Slater, OF ($3,200 DK; $2,500 FD) vs. LAA; Austin Riley, 3B/OF ($3,400 DK, $2,400 FD) vs. WAS; Matt Kemp, OF ($4,000 DK; $3,000 FD) vs. HOU
Lineup Stack: Braves vs. Nationals (RHP Erick Fedde)
I feel like I already played my hand that the Braves were my favorite stack, so I’ll highlight a second one, albeit from the same game. I’ve already touched on Freeman, d’Arnaud, and Fedde. The Nats bullpen has been bad, posting a 5.46 ERA over the last 14 days. So not only are you getting a pitcher who’s destined for regression, but you also get a bullpen that can’t seem to get anybody out. In addition to Freeman and d’Arnaud, I like Dansby Swanson ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Marcell Ozuna ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD), Matt Adams ($3,700 DK, $2,400 FD), and Austin Riley ($3,400 DK, $2,400 FD).
On the flipside of this game, I like the Nationals stack as well. The Braves are sending Kyle Wright to the mound, who sports a Fedde-esque -5.3% K-BB%. Unlike Fedde, he’s earned his 7.20 ERA, which comes in part because of a 31.9% line drive rate. From the Nationals, I like Juan Soto ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD), Trea Turner ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD), Eric Thames ($3,600 DK, $2,300 FD), and Luis Garcia ($2,300 DK, $2,300 FD). I could see myself running a game stack in this game since there are so many affordable bats. Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: Twins vs. Brewers; Rockies vs. Astros; Astros at Rockies; Nationals at Braves; Dodgers at Mariners
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)