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Saturday’s main slate features seven games with the Rockies continuing their homestand against the Texas Rangers and Kyle Gibson (28% CSW, 14.7% CSW in 2019). The Rockies should be the more popular of the two teams as their implied team total is nearly a run and a half higher. We’ve seen German Marquez pitch really well (30.1% CSW, 19.4% CSW in 2019) and that might discourage potential Rangers stacks, though they are of course in play-in tournaments, especially after their dud last night.
The other standout spot for offense is the Astros going against the lefty Nick Margevicius. Now without both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees proved last night that they can still stack up runs with the best of them. They’ll face a stiffer challenge against Nathan Eovaldi, though, who is coming off a very impressive 10 K performance against the Jays his last time out (33% CSW). Meanwhile, the Padres go against the Diamondbacks lefty Alex Young and could be a really off-the-board stack in tournaments.
Top SP: Patrick Corbin, WAS ($10,500 DK, $10,600 FD) at BAL
The projections at FTN have Walker Buehler (30.3% CSW, 24.2% K-BB% in 2019) and Patrick Corbin (29.3% CSW, 20.1% K-BB%) very close to each other tonight. We’ll go with Corbin though as he looks to be more stretched out right now and has also shown more strikeout upside of late. The Nationals are also the biggest road favorite on the board against the Orioles. And speaking of the Orioles, did you know they are second in team wOBA at .346 trailing just the Yankees? This can’t possibly last, can it?
Honorable Mentions: Walker Buehler, LAD ($10,300 DK, $9,600 FD) at LAA.
Value SP: Christian Javier, HOU ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD) vs SEA
Christian Javier (27.3% K-BB% in Triple-A last season) struggled in his last time out, allowing five runs to the A’s and lasting only three innings. He’s shown plenty of strikeout upside in the minors but walks have been a problem. This is simply just a rebound spot against a much easier opponent at home. The Mariners so far have the sixth-lowest team wOBA at .294 and the Astros are currently the biggest favorite on the board.
One of the biggest mysteries of the slate will be what to do with James Paxton. Last season he was fantastic posting a 20.7% K-BB rate and 28.7% CSW across 150 innings. This season though he’s shown noticeably depressed velocity and the results in his first two turns were awful. He bounced back in his latest start against the Rays, striking out 11 (34% CSW), but his velocity still wasn’t quite there as it sat around 92 mph instead of the 95 we saw last season. The Yankees are likely big home favorites but Paxton remains a risky option.
Kevin Gausman (18.2% K-BB%, 28% CSW in 2019) has shown a spike in velocity and a small bump in K rate so far from 25.3% to 28% through his first four appearances (three starts). While the Athletics definitely have power, they also have the fourth-worst team K rate at 26.6% so far this season. Gausman is an interesting, albeit very risky, option if you’re looking to punt your second SP on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention: James Paxton, NYY ($8,100 DK, $8,100 FD) vs BOS; Kevin Gausman, SF ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD) vs OAK.
OF Juan Soto, WAS ($5,400 DK, $4,600 FD) at BAL
You never really need extra incentive to play Juan Soto. But he gets an extra special match-up against Asher Wojciechowski (26% CSW, 14.4% K-BB% in 2019). Wojciechowski allowed a .367 wOBA and 10 home runs against opposing lefties last season in just over 80 total innings. The Nationals, meanwhile, have an implied run total well over five runs.
Honorable Mentions: Charlie Blackmon, OF ($6,100 DK, $4,200 FD) vs TEX; Alex Bregman, 3B ($5,500 DK, $3,800 FD) vs SEA; Trevor Story, SS ($6,200 DK, $4,000 FD) vs TEX; Fernando Tatis Jr, SS ($5,600 DK, $4,500 FD) at ARI.
SS Carlos Correa, HOU ($4,400 DK, $3,300 FD) vs SEA
The DFS tools over at FTN are loving the Astros tonight, as their implied total is currently sitting at an even six runs. Last year with the Padres, the lefty they’ll face, Nick Margevicius, posted an awful 6.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 8.8% K-BB% over 57 innings. And behind him there’s a Mariners pen that currently sits fourth from the bottom in K-BB%. Carlos Correa has gotten off to a sharp start, hitting .324 over the first 19 games of the year and is priced really affordably on both major sites.
Honorable Mentions: George Springer, OF ($4,400 DK, $3,700 FD) vs SEA; Nick Solak, OF ($4,500 DK, $3,600 FD) at COL; Justin Turner, 3B ($4,800 DK, $3,300 FD) at LAA; Gleyber Torres, SS ($4,800 DK, $2,700 FD ) vs BOS; Daniel Murphy, 1B ($4,600 DK, $3,300) vs TEX; Manny Machado, 3B ($4,600 DK, $3,600 FD) at ARI.
Value Batter: OF Adam Eaton, WAS ($3,600 DK, $2,500 FD) at BAL
Adam Eaton has gotten off to a really slow start this season batting only .228 so far but this is still a career .284 hitter who is coming off a very strong season last year. As mentioned earlier with his teammate Soto, lefties are a good way to attack Wojciechowski. The Nationals are implied to score well over five runs and Eaton as the likely two-hole hitter presents a high-floor play at a reasonable salary. Also on the Nationals, the lefty Luis Garcia, who was recently called up, is another value to play to look out for. He’s at a minimum price on DraftKings and is 2B-eligible.
Willie Calhoun, OF ($3,800 DK, $3,300 FD) at COL; Luis Garcia, 2B ($2,000 DK) at BAL; Gleyber Torres, SS ($2,700 FD) vs BOS; Wil Myers, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,900 FD) at ARI; Mike Ford, 1B ($3,800 DK, $2,400 FD) vs BOS.
Lineup Stack: Astros vs SEA (LHP Nick Margevicius)
As mentioned earlier with Correa, the Astros get an exploitable matchup against the lefty Margevicius. The Astros currently have the second-highest implied team total at six runs. Not surprisingly, the righties at the top of the order in Jose Altuve (.384 career wOBA vs LHP), Alex Bregman (.422 career wOBA vs LHP), and George Springer (.386 career wOBA vs LHP) all project really well this evening. Last season this team led the league in wOBA against lefties. And oh by the way they just got back Yordan Alvarez, too. The big lefty bat would be a fantastic tournament play if he’s in there.
Honorable Mentions: COL vs TEX (Gibson); SD at ARI (Young); NYY vs BOS (Eovaldi).
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