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Tuesday’s slate features 12 games. For offense, all eyes will be on Coors Field once again where it’ll be the lefty Kyle Freeland (25% CSW, 8.4% K-BB% in 2019) hosting the Diamondbacks and Zac Gallen (18% K-BB% in 2019). Gallen is certainly capable of shutting down the Rockies offense, but as we were reminded of again last night. the potential for offense is limitless at Coors Field. We’ve seen even the best of pitchers falter there.
In the Bronx, the Yankees will be welcoming the oft erratic righty Touki Toussaint.
And in case you missed it last night, Mike Clevinger won’t be making tonight’s start due to violating protocol. Adam Plutko will be making the start in his stead. This is a huge bump up to the Cubs bats as Putko not only struck out opposing hitters at a meager 16.9% clip, he also allowed a .370 wOBA to lefty batters.
The White Sox are another offense that projects well tonight as they have an implied total closing in on six runs. They’ll start off facing the lefty Tyler Alexander and could definitely fly under the radar in tournaments.
Top SP: Max Scherzer, ($10,800 DK, $10,700 FD) at NYM
Mike Minor (28.4% CSW, 15.3% K-BB% in 2019) gets a profitable matchup against the Mariners but has shown a concerning dip in velocity and loss in swinging strikes this year.
Zack Wheeler (26.6% CSW, 17.5% K-BB% in 2019) and the Phillies are currently the largest favorites on the board. Wheeler’s price is kind of tough to swallow based on what we’ve seen in his first two starts, namely a lack of strikeouts. There’s definitely a potential ceiling with Wheeler, but I was hoping for a little bit of a discount until we actually see it. Another thing worth noting as it pertains to Wheeler, the Orioles so far in the young season have the fourth-lowest team K-rate at 21.1%.
Dylan Bundy (29% CSW, 14.8% K-BB% in 2019) has been phenomenal so far and has shown significantly more strikeout ability than Wheeler in the early going. The one reason to maybe be a little hesitant here though is that he’s coming off a 107-pitch, complete-game performance his last time out, so it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Joe Maddon pull back on the reins a little bit and limit his pitch count. The A’s too are a much tougher lineup than the Mariners of course, and it’s also their second time seeing him this year.
Max Scherzer (33.1% CSW, 30.3% K-BB% in 2019) is easily the most talented pitcher on tonight’s slate. There is definitely risk attached given that it’s his first appearance back from a hamstring injury. But given that the price gap between Scherzer and Wheeler/Bundy isn’t all that great, it could be a risk worth taking considering the much larger gap in strikeout ability. The one caveat here is any word of a pitch count. If news comes out that Scherzer is on some sort of limit that would of course change things and make Wheeler or Bundy a clearer choice.
Honorable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, PHI ($9,900 DK, $9,400 FD) vs BAL; Dylan Bundy, LAA ($9,700 DK, $9,700 FD) vs OAK.
Value SP: Ross Stripling, LAD ($7,900 DK, $8,100 FD) vs SD
Ross Stripling (30.4% CSW, 19.7 K-BB% in 2019) did surrender four runs his last time out against these same Padres, but he was otherwise impressive as he tallied seven K’s through five and two-thirds innings (35% CSW). The one knock against Stripling in the past has been that the Dodgers have had a tendency to limit him, but encouragingly he’s gone over 90 pitches in two of his first three starts. The Dodgers are currently the second-largest favorite on the board tonight behind the Phillies.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Montgomery, NYY ($7,900 DK, $6,800 FD) vs ATL.
2B Ketel Marte, ARI ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD) at COL.
To his credit, Freeland has pitched much better so far this season than at any point last year. Still, he’s a pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats. So far, Freeland’s swinging strike right sits at 7.7% with a 15.7% K-rate. Not great. His current BABIP of .235 probably won’t hold especially at Coors. Ketel Marte will likely hit first or second and the natural right-handed hitter as always shown more power from that side. He’ll have the advantage here and is easily the highest-projected 2B of the night according to the DFS tools on FTN.
Honorable Mentions: Starling Marte, OF ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD) at COL; Juan Soto, OF ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD) at NYM; Max Kepler, OF ($4,800 DK, $3,700 FD) at MIL; Anthony Rizzo, 1B ($5,200 DK, ) at CLE; Trevor Story, SS ($6,100 DK, $4,200 FD) vs ARI; (Christian Yelich, OF ($5,300 DK, $4,300 FD) vs MIN.
SS Gleyber Torres, NYY ($4,400 DK, $2,700 FD) vs ATL.
The DFS tools over at FTN evidently aren’t swayed by Touki Toussaint’s gem his last time out as the Yankees are currently projected with the highest implied run total outside of Coors Field. This is a price check for Torres who although he hasn’t gotten off to a great start we know what he’s capable of.
Another bat in this price range to consider is Kyle Schwarber who as mentioned earlier will get to face off against the righty Plutko. Schwarber and the Cubs offense project extremely well tonight as they have an implied total well over five runs.
Honorable Mentions: Eloy Jimenez, OF ($4,400 DK, $3,300 FD) at DET; Kyle Schwarber, OF ($4,800 DK, $2,700 FD) at CLE; Kris Bryant, 3B ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD) at CLE; Carlos Correa, SS ($4,500 DK, $3,400 FD ) vs SF; Christian Walker, 1B ($4,600 DK, $3,500) at COL.
Value Batter: 1B Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD) vs BAL
Rhys Hoskins stands out as more of a value on DraftKings than on Fanduel, but he’s a very reasonable play there too. He’ll be opposed by the righty Alex Cobb who has gotten off to a very sharp start with a 2.51 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. But, he’s also given up some loud contact allowing a .349 xwOBA that has been masked, in part at least, by a .211 BABIP. In particular, his fastball has allowed a .465 xwOBA. Hoskins meanwhile has gotten off to a dreadful start, but there’s still a lot of power in this bat evidence being a .405 xwOBA so far this season. Hoskins is a boom/bust play that shouldn’t be too popular and is best suited for tournaments.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for a higher floor play, Alex Verdugo is still priced very affordably as the Red Sox leadoff man. The Rays will be deploying RHP Andrew Kittredge as an opener tonight.
If you’re playing over on FanDuel, make sure to consider some of the Yankee bats. They’ll be facing off against the young righty Touki Toussaint who was great in his last start with a 40% CSW and no walks across six and two-thirds innings. That’s very uncharacteristic of Toussaint who has shown poor command and high walk rates in the past. That could easily spell trouble at Yankee Stadium. Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Mike Tauchman, Luke Voit, and Gary Sanchez are all below $3,000 on FanDuel.
Honorable Mentions: Hunter Renfroe, OF ($3,300 DK, $3,100 FD) at BOS; Alex Verdugo, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,900 FD) vs TB; Gleyber Torres, SS ($2,700 FD) vs ATL; Eduardo Escobar, 3B ($3,900 DK) at COL; Andrew McCutchen, OF ($2,400 FD) vs BAL; Aaron Hicks, OF ($2,600 FD) vs ATL; Kyle Schwarber, OF ($2,700 FD) at CLE.
Lineup Stack: Diamondbacks at COL (LHP Kyle Freeland)
The obvious stack of the night is the Diamondbacks, but with good reason, as they have far and away the highest implied team total of the night just shy of eight runs. As mentioned earlier Freeland is a pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats and as such he finds himself at the mercy of BABIP which can be an especially cruel arbiter at Coors Field. As you would anticipate Freeland has been tougher on lefties holding them to a measly .285 wOBA for his career as opposed to a .337 mark against righties. Starling Marte, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker are the priority plays while any lefties that crack the lineup are best suited for tournaments.
For tournaments, don’t forget the Twins, as they might get lost in the shuffle with more obvious offenses in play. They’ll face the righty Josh Lindblom.
Honorable Mentions: NYY vs ATL (Toussaint); CHC at CLE (Plutko); COL vs ARI (Gallen); MIN at MIL (Lindblom); CWS at DET (Alexander).
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