We’ll see all the teams in action this Saturday, minus the Mets and Nationals. Both major DFS sites have split the day down into two five-game slates, the early slate starting at 1:00 PM EST and the night slate starting at 7:00 PM EST. Here we’ll key in on the late slate.
Top SP: Joe Musgrove, SD ($8,600 DK, $8,600 FD) vs ARI
Joe Musgrove only made eight starts last season but he made them count as he recorded a sharp 23.5% K-BB% while also holding opposing batters to just a .273 xwOBA. Last year’s success was tied to both his slider and curveball returning electrifying whiff rates north of 50%. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks struggled to do much of anything offensively tallying a team wOBA of just .306, tied for 6th-worst with the Cardinals. Musgrove also gets the added benefit of being tonight’s biggest home favorite.
Corbin Burnes is the other clear target. One of last year’s breakout stars, the righty rode a stellar 36.7% K while earning a few Cy Young votes along the way. The Brewers are modest home favorites tonight while the visiting Twins will likely be without both Josh Donaldson, who is nursing a hamstring injury, and Nelson Cruz sans the DH spot.
If you’re searching for leverage in terms of percent rostered, José Berríos might just be an interesting pivot for tournaments as the road dog in that same game. The Brewers struggled mightily last year offensively and struck out at a 26.6% clip, 3rd worst.
Honorable Mentions: Corbin Burnes, MIL ($8,200 DK, $9,200 FD) vs MIN; José Berríos ($8,800 DK, $8,800 FD) at MIL.
Value SP: Logan Webb, SF ($7,400 DK, $6,400 FD) at SEA
Logan Webb, fueled by a revamped changeup, was one of the more notable pitching standouts this past spring as he finished with a 0.53 WHIP, 0.53 ERA, and 22 K’s across 17 innings. He’s since become a popular waiver claim in seasonal formats, and at this price point, it makes sense to chase that K upside we saw this past spring in order to fit some Dodgers bats in.
Chris Flexen on the opposite side of that same game could also be of interest in tournaments. The former Met was signed by the Mariners this past offseason after a very impressive 2020 in the KBO.
Honorable Mention: Chris Flexen, SEA ($7,400 DK, $6,500 FD) vs SF.
SS Corey Seager LAD ($5,500 DK, $4,500 FD) at COL
It’s a game at Colorado. You can hear Sam Elliott’s resonating voice echoing the word Coors. No? Ok, fine, it’s just me then. No sales pitch required here, Corey Seager put his stamp on the claim as one of the game’s most prolific young hitters as he put together a .307/ .358/ .585 slash line. He’ll hold the platoon advantage against Jon Gray who is coming off a tough year marked by a .296 xBA and .361 xwOBA across 39 IP. The Dodgers have, as you would expect, the highest implied total on the board at just over seven runs.
Honorable Mentions: Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($5,900 DK, $4,300 FD) vs ARI; Wil Myers, OF ($4,900 DK, $3,300 FD) vs ARI.
3B Yoán Moncada, CWS ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD) at LAA
Yoán Moncada admittedly dealt with the lingering effects of his bout with COVID-19 throughout last year’s abbreviated season so that in mind we should be more than willing to just ignore it. Don’t forget he produced an impressive .315/ .367/ .548 slash backed by a .356 xwOBA in 2019. He’s always been a stronger threat from the left side of the plate (.347 wOBA vs RHP for his career) and he’ll get that chance tonight against the righty Alex Cobb. Cobb, to his credit, did show a bump in velocity during this past spring, even so, this is a pitcher who has posted just a 5.10 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 9% K-BB% over his past three campaigns combined (217 IP).
Honorable Mentions: Max Muncy, 1B ($5,100 DK, $4,200 FD) at COL; Gavin Lux 2B ($4,000 DK, $3,000 FD) at COL.
Value Batter: OF Tommy Pham, SD ($3,300 DK, $3,200 FD) vs ARI
Tommy Pham missed just about a month last year with a broken hamate bone. From 2017-19 he compiled an excellent .353 wOBA and 126 wRC+. He’s also been hitting leadoff for the Padres the past two nights, making the cheap price point even more appealing. The Padres have the second-highest implied team total of the evening at just over five runs as they’ll face Caleb Smith who, while possessing above-average strikeout ability, has surrendered a barrel rate over 9% in each of his past three seasons.
This will be the third game in a row for the Padres, so there is at least a chance Pham sits this one out if so, the proverbial low-hanging fruit, more so on DraftKings, would be Raimel Tapia. The Rockies leadoff man is at a favorable price point, but the matchup against Walker Buehler makes it just a little short of ideal.
Honorable Mentions: Raimel Tapia, OF ($3,300 DK, $3,200 FD) vs LAD; C.J. Cron 1B ($3,600 DK, $3,800 FD) vs LAD; Avisaíl García, OF ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD) vs MIN.
Top Stack: White Sox at LAA (RHP Caleb Smith)
Just a minute. Sam Elliott is calling again. Uh-huh. Right, Coors yes, commercials? You don’t say! Ok, fine I’ll hang up. You know what to do, it’s the Dodgers at Colorado. Looking elsewhere, Cobb, as mentioned earlier, looks like a fairly decent target for opposing hitters, making the White Sox another team worth targeting tonight. The loss of Eloy Jiménez is huge, but as we saw last night this is still a lineup that is capable of doing a lot of damage with the likes of José Abreu (.398 xwOBA last season), Tim Anderson (.357 xwOBA), Luis Robert (.325 xwOBA), and Moncada. The rookie standout Andrew Vaughn could also be a key salary saver if he’s back in there again tonight as well.
Honorable Mentions: LAD at COL (Gray); SD vs ARI (Smith).
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