DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (8 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
Rain possible for ATL@PIT & CHC@NYM.
Looks like a good day to be a hitter.
Best games for HRs:
NYY@CWS (wind in to left but park still carries the ball out)
CHC@NYM (wind out to right-center)
TOR@CLE (wind out to right)
COL@MIL (assuming roof is open, park carries the ball out)
Best games for XBH:
KC@BOS (wind out to left-center)
ATL@PIT (wind out to center)
Top SP1 for this slate likely comes down to personal preference – Spencer Strider & Gerrit Cole are both worthy of the crown, but both are on the road in hitter-friendly environments. The slight edge likely goes to Strider, as his K rates are higher (and PIT tends to strike out more than CWS) and PLV ratings are slightly better overall. However, on DK, there is a significant price difference between the two, so if you find yourself struggling to fit Strider – or if rain looks like it will be a problem – Cole might be a better play.
There are also two strong SP2 candidates for this slate – Freddy Peralta & Dane Dunning. Chalky Peralta can be volatile, but he actually had a 10 K performance in Coors back in May. Dunning had a great 11 K performance in his last start vs the White Sox – he seems to do his best with a comfortable lead which TEX should be able to do vs OAK’s D & Ken Waldichuk. Peralta probably will be higher-owned than Dunning, so he’s the preferred cash SP2 while Dunning would be the better choice for tournaments.
Two possible trap plays on this slate are Kodai Senga & Dylan Cease. Senga’s K rates are down vs both L/R bats, as well as PLV ratings suggesting regression is in order – and the Cubs have been crushing it with wins in 5 of their last 6, with the last two vs ATL. Cease might see some ownership because he’s at home vs the Yankees, but the Yanks have looked “respectable” in the past week, splitting their series with HOU and scoring at least 3 runs in their last 5 games.
Cole Ragans is intriguing, although Fenway is a scary place to start. He has strong numbers vs L which offsets most of BOS’s power hitters, but he’s best used in large-field tournaments as a high-risk/reward option. The price is certainly appealing.
It may seem crazy to target one of the higher-priced pitchers as the main focus of your lineup, but the Cubs are just that hot right now, and Kodai Senga is trending down in both K & PLV ratings and up in allowances to hard contact & LD/FB rates vs Ls and LD rate vs Rs. The Mets have also been swept in back-to-back series, meaning they may not put up much of a fight.
Don’t look now, but KC has scored 4 or more runs in their last 6 games and won 4 of them. Poor Brayan Bello had a decent June but has allowed an average of at least 3 ERs and 6 hits per start in July. He’s also good for at least 1 HR per start over his last 5 starts. On the other side, this will be a big test for Cole Ragans to see if he’s the real deal… probably best to wait and see although if he’s even half-decent, DK has an egregious price for him.
Dylan Cease has struggled in his last two starts – especially vs Ls. Without Rizzo do they have enough capable bats to take advantage of the opportunity?
Base plays: Jake Bauers (NYY)
Osvaldo Bido’s PLV numbers are trending up vs both L/R bats, but will it be enough to contain ATL? He has a weakness for LD hits and is generally strong vs Rs.
Base plays: Matt Olson (ATL)
CLE lost one of their main weapons vs Ls by trading Rosario to LAD – can their new lineup ruin Hyun Jin Ryu’s attempt at a comeback? Gavin Williams has avoided bad blowup games for most of the past month, but TOR just got the spark they needed with the recent call-up of Davis Schneider and swept BOS in their last series.
Stack/GPP plays: Brandon Belt (TOR)
Ken Waldichuk is expected to get the bulk of the innings in this one, but he hasn’t gone much more than 4 IP in his starts thus far. He does tend to give up walks and XBH (but not many HRs), and TEX is undefeated so far in August, scoring 5 or more runs in their last 5 games. Jonathan Ornelas could be one to watch at the bare minimum price as a call-up replacement for Jung.
Peter Lambert was defying the odds in July with 0 ER over 3 starts, and SD finally got him to crack in his last start. MIL is still a hard team to get excited about using for DFS – especially with stacking – but that’s just the type of strategy that can win a large-field tournament.
Stack/GPP plays: Ryan McMahon (COL)
Have the Angels turned back into pumpkins? If TEX is the hot team in August that hasn’t lost, the Angels are the ice-cold team in August with no wins. The Giants aren’t really the ones to talk, as they just got swept in a 2-game mini-series vs OAK. More than likely this ends up as two teams flailing away with futility, but somebody has to win, right?
Base plays: Wilmer Flores (SF)