Like most Fridays, we are treated to a full slate of 15 games today. The featured slate starting at 7:05 ET will cover only 12 of those contests, and those will be the focal point of today’s article. Best of luck to all playing today!
The Reds rookie sensation, Andrew Abbott leads all starters with a $9,900 price tag over at DraftKings. It makes sense considering his performance and the Brewers history against lefties this season. They have the 2nd worst wRC+ (81) and highest K% (27.6%) when facing lefties. Abbott ranks in the top 94% in xERA/xwOBA, 83% in K%, and dominated the Brewers in his debut month back. He is definitely worthy of that price tag at the top.
Zac Gallen is right behind him at $9,600 and should fare just fine facing the lowly Pirates. They have the worst wRC+ (77) against righties over the last month. Start him with confidence if you feel like paying up. I’m not as confident in Luis Castillo ($9.400) right now, who draws the Astros. Houston has caught fire lately with a 142 wRC+ over the last two weeks against righties, 2nd best in all of MLB.
Typically it would be safe to assume Luis Castillo could be the one to tame an offense as good as them, but right now I’m not so sure. He hasn’t been incredibly sharp, allowing 3 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. Castillo could easily turn it on tomorrow and no one would be shocked, but this matchup is definitely scary. The Astros have rookie Hunter Brown ($9,200) on the bump, but it’s a bit difficult to know which version of him is going to show up. He should find plenty of punchouts against the Mariners who have the 4th highest K% (25.6%) against righties over the last month though.
Carlos Rodón ($9,100), Corbin Burnes ($9,000), and Yu Darvish ($8,800), all have their warts, and I’d avoid them at their salary. Rodon is making his first start of the year, Burnes has been incredibly inconsistent and faces the Big Red Machine, and Darvish hasn’t pitched in over two weeks due to illness. He’s been pretty bad lately anyhow, having allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts.
I don’t mind Justin Verlander ($8,500) in this spot countering Darvish though. He is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings and has held this San Diego roster in check in the past. They own a paltry .249 xwOBA and 27.1% K% versus him in 155 plate appearances.
My favorite mid-tier pitcher is Jordan Montgomery ($8,100), however. He’s in fantastic form over his last six starts with fantasy point totals of 28, 25, 27, 17, 27, and 18. Gumby should make quick work of the White Sox who see the t2nd fewest Pit/PA (3.81). They are also just 21st in wRC+ (88) with the 9th highest K% (25.5%) over the last month against Southpaws.
Lastly, my favorite bargain at the bottom of the barrel is none other than Jameson Taillon ($5,200) making his return to Yankee Stadium. He has been horrendous this year, but so have the “Bronx Bombers” without Aaron Judge over the last month. They are 25th in wRC+ (82) across this time, and at $5,200, Taillon might be worth the gamble.
Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batter props. With that being said, there is a plethora of weak starting pitching today.
Any of the Texas bats against Trevor Williams is a good start to building a stack. He ranks in the bottom 16% in xERA/xwOBA and his 24.5% CSW% is among one of the worst rates out of all starters. It will be hard to find many cheap trustworthy options from that lineup, but Ezequiel Duran ($3,800) and Leody Taveras ($3,300) are decent looks to start with. It has yet to be confirmed at the time of this writing, but if Austin Gomber is starting, stacking the Giants is a great look as well.
The Guardians should do damage against left-hander Daniel Lynch, and there are a couple of names in particular that have solid success facing him. Amed Rosario ($3,800) is 6-11 with two doubles and a triple against Lynch. José Ramírez ($5,800) has also (obviously) hit him hard with a .490 xwOBA across 12 plate appearances. Lastly, Andrés Giménez ($4,000) is 3-4 against him.
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