Until the NYM@BOS game was suspended yesterday, we had a straightforward split slate for today. Now it’s a bit confusing…
DraftKings – Turbo slate (3 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Early slate (5 games*) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
* Yesterday’s NYM-BOS game resumes at 4:10 PM, and the normally scheduled game doesn’t start until around 7:10 PM – but DK left the “later” game on the Early slate anyway. This 7PM NYM-BOS game is on the Main slate on FD.
FanDuel – Very Early Only slate (3 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Early Only slate (4 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (7 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
SD@DET is not on any of the above slates on DK/FD.
1 PM games:
KC@NYY – Warm, decent wind blowing out to right. Second only to GABP for HR-friendly conditions.
4 PM games:
ARI@CIN – Warm, wind blowing out to right. Top game for HRs and overall runs.
TOR@SEA – Hot, wind blowing out to center, but still only resulting in a slight boost to HRs.
7 PM games:
Some rain expected for CWS@MIN – late start?
ATL@MIL – Wind blowing in, but still considered the third-best park for HRs for the day.
NYM@BOS – It’s Fenway with the wind blowing out to center/right-center. Large boost to XBH and overall runs, slight boost to HR chances.
PHI@CLE/SF@WAS – Shifting winds, but favorable overall for XBH.
PIT@LAA – Typical wind out to center, slight boost to HRs.
1PM Games Summary
It’s an ugly 3-game slate with a ton of chalk. If you must play it, get different. Gerrit Cole is still the best arm on the slate likely with the safest floor, and if you need a SP2, Brady Singer could keep it close. Johnny Cueto has not been good since coming up to replace Eury Pérez and Chase Anderson isn’t great either, so go heavy on COL & MIA stacks – build around C.J. Cron, Kris Bryant, Ryan McMahon, and Michael Toglia for COL; Jesús Sánchez, Garrett Cooper, and Luis Arraez for MIA. Then assuming Drew Smyly is the bulk reliever for the Cubs, finish the lineup with Willson Contreras (he seems to like facing the Cubs for some reason) and Paul DeJong at SS.
SP1 for the 4PM games comes down to Shane McClanahan vs Kevin Gausman. McClanahan didn’t really look like his dominant self last time out – but he was coming off IL and it was TEX. Last we saw BAL vs a lefty (Julio Urías), they hung eight ERs on him, but he also couldn’t strike them out. McClanahan should have better success with Ks – especially if James McCann & Jordan Westburg are in the lineup. There are a couple bats he has to avoid, but he should do OK at home.
Kevin Gausman is still likely a solid choice vs a SEA lineup that loves to swing and miss, but the wind could be a factor as he tends to allow more FB contact to both sides of the plate. He still has considerable upside on a slate without many options.
Logan Gilbert might be a serviceable SP2, as TOR has only scored more than two runs once in their last four games (and lost three of those). His K rates are better vs Rs which will be the majority of TOR’s lineup.
Max Scherzer vs James Paxton (DK 4PM slate, FD 7PM slate) is a big name matchup, but it’s hard to know the impact of finishing two-thirds of yesterday’s game first will have on this game. The previous three pitchers still are likely stronger plays, but only Scherzer is the upside play here with both pitchers at around the same price.
It’s likely both sides could see increased K rates as fatigue sets in, but fielding could be less sharp as well. James Paxton’s K rates are down and he’s giving up increased walks and HRs. Max Scherzer is a risk/reward FB pitcher which could be dangerous at Fenway.
Base plays: Josh Lowe (TB)
Most likely a pitchers duel, but with the temps and wind, a mistake could be costly.
*Bido is the likely bulk innings reliever to follow Ryan Borucki
The main SP1 choice in all formats is Logan Webb – he minimizes mistakes, he pitches deep into games, he limits walks, and it’s the Nats.
A solid SP2 choice is Reid Detmers. He’s mainly a FB pitcher, but he’s been improving on allowed solid contact, barrels, and hard hits – at home vs PIT priced at a discount with upside, he’s also a good play in all formats.
Zack Wheeler has great PLV numbers which suggest that his recent ER allowances of 3+ in his last 4 starts are due for correction. His K rate vs Ls is a bit low – and CLE doesn’t K much as a team – knocking him down a few spots compared to the above options, but he should still have a safe floor for cash lineups.
Which Dylan Cease do we get today? He was surprisingly good vs ATL after getting blown up vs STL in his prior start, so we may be reaching Berrios levels of fluctuation with Cease…but his K rates are holding steady and the Twins have an above-average K rate as a team, so he’s worth a mention. There are a couple of bats below to consider in tournaments however.
See section above under 4PM Batting.
Adrian Houser has the worst PLV vs L rating on the slate and ATL seems to have gotten back on track after their recent 4-game losing streak. Austin Riley has a ridiculous 5 HRs in his last 4 games, and he also hits sinkers well. Allan Winans is getting an opportunity to start and could do well, but he has to deal with the red hot Christian Yelich.
GPP/Stack plays: Michael Harris II (ATL)
PHI is reeling a bit on a 3-game losing streak, but they showed positive signs of fighting back yesterday despite José Ramírez’s herculean performance. Tanner Bibee is allowing more FB contact recently which is just what PHI needs. Zack Wheeler will need to limit Josh Naylor’s hot bat to have a clean statline.
SF is a tough team to get excited about on most days, but given it’s a small slate and the heat with the Nats park could provide some pop, it’s not impossible that a couple of SF bats could take Josiah Gray deep.
This is a game that could easily be a dud or a slugfest. It’s an interesting one for GPPs though as it’s unlikely the game will be a popular stack.
It’s hard to get excited about HOU’s lineup. Kyle Tucker went off with 3 HRs yesterday – unlikely for him to duplicate that effort, but he could continue to take advantage of what the OAK pitchers give him. Cristian Javier seems to be heading in the right direction, but the Ks are still sadly lacking and he’s still mainly a FB pitcher, which means he could get himself into trouble.