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Slate Details
All 3 sites – OwnersBox/DraftKings/FanDuel – have multiple sites on Saturday, but we’ll be focusing on the following:
OwnersBox- Early slate (8 games) – starts 1:04 PM EDT; Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:04 PM EDT.
DraftKings – Early slate (8 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
FanDuel – Very Early Only slate (4 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Early Only slate (4 games) – starts 3:07 PM EDT; Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
LAA@CLE is the only game not on any of the Early or Main slates.
Weather Impact
Coors & Fenway are the two primary pop spots of the day, but the wind is also blowing out for TB@NYY/TEX@OAK (Early) & SD@LAD (Main).
Pitcher-friendly winds blowing in for CHC@MIN/NYM@WAS (Early) & HOU@CWS (Main).
There may be rain for SEA@DET, CHC@MIN, & NYM@WAS.
Weather status updates will be posted in our Discord in the #dfs-and-bets channel.
Pitching (Early)
Early slate pitching is fairly straightforward; pick your ace (Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara, or Joe Ryan) and if you need an SP2, the chalk is going to be Bryce Miller (unless rain gets in the way). As for which ace is your preferred SP1, consider the following:
McClanahan – the impulse click SP1, but although he has the most K-upside, he also has some risk. The wind will be blowing out and it’s a day game, so there could be some XBH concerns, and the Yankees have a few bats to avoid.
Alcantara – probably the safest SP1 option. The Reds are away from GABP and possibly still without TJ Friedl. They got a number of doubles & HRs off MIA RHPs yesterday, but Alcantara should manage to go deep as the Reds work through a bullpen game.
Ryan (weather risk?) – K rates are down a bit, but he also has the ability to go deep into the game – which cost Sonny a win yesterday as the bullpen spoiled a solid performance. This could be a low-scoring game though, as Hayden Wesneski is stingy enough to limit the Twins’ offense as well.
Jon Gray had a really strong outing vs SEA last time out, and since it’s the As, he will get some rostership – but I don’t think he’s a better option than the top three above. One notable exception is he becomes a chalk SP2 if rain interferes with Bryce Miller’s start. He has really strong GB numbers vs Rs, but this being a day game with the wind blowing out, there’s still some risk with his higher FB numbers vs Ls. If you’re playing Early Only on FD, he’s the best option on the slate missing the earlier studs.
Batting (Early)
There’s no Coors fun on the Early slate, so the main target should be STL-BOS in “Funway” Park. Steven Matz has strong numbers vs L hitters – and BOS still uses a number of Ls even vs LHPs – so the best bat to start with is Justin Turner. Rob Refsnyder hasn’t been great lately, but he might be chalky given his potential lead-off spot and discount. Some BOS Ls that could get to Matz are Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, & Raimel Tapia (if he makes the lineup).
It’s hard to say which version of Chris Sale we get today – but it’s probably safe to trust Nolan Arenado & Paul Goldschmidt either way. If you want a punt catcher with upside, you can also use Andrew Knizner (although he disappointed yesterday).
The aforementioned Yankees stadium is the next game to target, and we’ll start with the Rays. Taylor Walls is one of those guys you look for when there’s lefty pitching. Isaac Paredes & Randy Arozarena are also worth strong consideration vs Nestor Cortes.
Picking on Shane McClanahan isn’t a popular move, but there are two Yankees that could benefit from the hitting conditions. Harrison Bader is healthy and smashing lefties, so he’s worth consideration as a cash one-off and a must for tournaments. Anthony Volpe is also hitting well vs Ls, possibly without some of the pressure that he had while leading off.
ATL-TOR is an interesting game as it will likely be popular on the slate, but it has a large range of outcomes. José Berríos is affectionately known at Pitcher List as the Great Undulator since you don’t know whether the good or bad version of him will show up, and Bryce Elder continues to be a guy that PLV doesn’t love, but he doesn’t get blown up as often as the stats suggest he might. Therefore, I advise caution and not to overload on this game.
As for TOR, George Springer is back, and he actually has a HR vs Elder from back during this year’s Spring Training. The trio of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., & Daulton Varsho will be popular – but I think if you’re looking to pivot and be underweight on a stack that may be over-rostered, you start with the previously mentioned plays and work in whichever of these guys fit with spots you have left over. An under-the-radar option here can also be Whit Merrifield as he hits well in R-on-R matchups and has a decent hit streak going.
ATL has been disappointing in their last two games, so it will be interesting to see if they switch things up a bit with their lineup. Matt Olson has been way too hot this year to stay this cold for long, so if you want to pivot off Vlad, he’s a solid option. Eddie Rosario has a hit streak going back to the first game of a May 1st doubleheader, making him a solid value option at a lower rostership.
Watch the rain on this one- but Alex Faedo is a good pitcher to pick on with SEA bats if the game plays. J.P. Crawford & Jarred Kelenic are a solid pair that are fine either as a mini-stack or one-offs, and Ty France will likely be batting between them if you want to expand the stack.
Another risky low-rostered stack (due to the rain, and because of who it is) is the Nats. Unless it’s an ace, lefties vs WAS is a sneaky dangerous spot – the Nats don’t strike out as much as you think vs Ls and they either get opportunistic XBHs or string together ‘death from 1000 hits’ making them an underrated play. The question usually is who ends up in the lineup. Watch for guys like Ildemaro Vargas, Riley Adams, and Stone Garrett – and they are all in play vs a guy like Joey Lucchesi.
Pitching (Main)
The two best arms for the main are clearly Zac Gallen & Julio Urías. After that, it’s a number of guys with a small number of post-IL starts or going through rough spots. Joe Musgrove has three starts since returning this season from injury (one of them in Mexico City), so it’s tough to say if he’s trustworthy enough to go against the Dodgers. Tyler Wells is probably my third choice as PIT has cooled off considerably of late, with one win in their last 11 games, and scoring three or fewer runs in each game in May.
Batting (Main)
The main slate has Coors, but the challenge here is Ranger Suárez is making his first start this season and we don’t know how many innings he will pitch. Randal Grichuk has been on a tear since returning from IL on 4/29 – eight runs and 14 hits. Let him ride with Kris Bryant (as with past articles, the less I say about him, the better).
Since it’s a small slate, the chalky move is to just build around a PHI stack. Kyle Schwarber is your DFS free square of the slate, and he’ll likely be stacked with Bryce Harper & Nick Castellanos. Hopefully, they do better this time than when they last faced Ryan Feltner on 4/20 and only managed three singles.
If you want to get crazy with tournaments, you could build around a Dodgers stack instead. Look to build around core players like Will Smith, James Outman, David Peralta, & Miguel Vargas. If you want to fade Urías and also include Fernando Tatis Jr. & Manny Machado with one-offs from other games or minimal pieces of Coors, this could be a prime game to go over the field on.
If you’re looking for low-rostered pivot plays, the White Sox are rarely an attractive option – but Brandon Bielak is not a pitcher to fear. He has a notably large barrel rate vs Rs, making guys like Luis Robert Jr. or Andrew Vaughn playable on a slate like this, although the wind is expected to swirl a bit.
Main slate one-offs:
- Zack Greinke is by no means an ace anymore, but the Brewers are rarely an explosive team either. Rowdy Tellez is one of the few standouts that isn’t hitting primarily GB, so he’s worth a look.
- Dominic Fletcher has been raking for the D-backs when he’s been in the lineup.
- Yordan Alvarez has HRs in back-to-back games and is running a hit streak back to May 2.